San MarinoSan Marino - San MarinoFinished

Predictions graded

Enrico Dalla Valle #323Italy2Mika Brunold #420Switzerland0

Sets 6-3 · 6-3Mon 27 Jul 2026, 10:45 Predictions gradedQ3Clay

Predictions2–529%

Edges2–433%

Player Profiles

Ranking advantageEnrico Dalla Valle · 97 places

Enrico Dalla Valle

Italy

Reached career-high No. 242 on 24 June 2024. He is a 196 cm right-hander with a two-handed backhand; the profile source lists hard as his preferred surface.

Current ranking: #323
Peak ranking: #242 · 2024
Current age: 28
Preferred surface: Hard
Hand: Right handed
Height: 196 cm

Mika Brunold

Switzerland

Reached career-high No. 289 on 18 August 2025. He is a 191 cm right-hander with a two-handed backhand; the profile source lists indoor hard as his preferred surface.

Current ranking: #420
Peak ranking: #289 · 2025
Current age: 21
Preferred surface: Indoor hard
Hand: Right handed
Height: 191 cm

Quick Take

Pre-match view

Context last updated 27 Jul 2026, 15:26 · Europe/Bucharest

Dalla Valle's superior clay form, serve dominance, and H2H win make him the clear favorite, but Brunold's competitiveness suggests a tight match.

Best bets: Brunold +3.5 games (2.50) and over 22.5 total games (1.95). Avoid Brunold outright at 3.80.

Context

Dalla Valle's first-serve points won rate is 76.2% over his last 15 matches, all on clay.
- Brunold's first-serve points won rate is only 64.8% in the same window.
- Dalla Valle's break-point save rate is 67.3%, compared to Brunold's 57.7%.
Brunold's break points saved rate is 57.7% (60/104) in his last 15 matches.
- Dalla Valle converts 41.1% of break points, a respectable rate.
- In their only H2H, Brunold faced 9 break points and was broken 3 times.
Dalla Valle won 6-2, 6-7(5), 6-3 on clay in April 2025.
- Dalla Valle won 75% of first-serve points in that match, Brunold 65%.
- Brunold hit 5 double faults in the match, a sign of pressure on his serve.

BetBugs edges

Compare BetBugs' chances with the market's.

Positive edges · 5

BetBugs probabilities

How likely BetBugs thought each outcome was.

Result1 of 1 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Market price 1.22
The read
Dalla Valle's superior recent clay form, higher point dominance, and H2H win give him a clear edge in this matchup.
- Dalla Valle has a 10-5 record in last 15 matches on clay, winning 58.5% of games and 54.6% of points.
- Brunold is 9-6 in last 15 on clay, winning only 51.2% of games and 50.8% of points.
- Dalla Valle won their only H2H meeting on clay in April 2025 (6-2, 6-7, 6-3).
- Dalla Valle holds a 76.2% first-serve points won rate in last 15, compared to Brunold's 64.8%.
BetBugs · Match WinnerwonEnrico Dalla ValleEstimated chance62%

Games0 of 2 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Brunold's matches tend to be longer, and with both players showing decent return games, a competitive match likely exceeds 21.5 games.
- Dalla Valle's last 15 matches averaged 18.9 games, but his tighter opener (6-3, 7-6) suggests competitive sets.
- Brunold's last 15 matches averaged 22.3 games, with 7 of 15 going over 21.5 games.
- Their H2H had 30 games, and both players have break-point conversion rates around 41-45%.
BetBugs · Total GameslostOver 21.5Estimated chance65%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Market price 2.50
The read
Brunold's competitiveness and Dalla Valle's occasional lapses make a +3.5 game handicap for Brunold a solid cover.
- Brunold has covered a +3.5 game handicap in 12 of his last 15 matches.
- Dalla Valle's average margin of victory in wins is 4.2 games, but Brunold's losses are often close.
- Brunold's return points won (40.6%) matches Dalla Valle's, suggesting he can keep games tight.
BetBugs · Game HandicaplostMika Brunold +3.5Estimated chance60%

Sets1 of 2 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Dalla Valle's stronger start tendency and higher first-set win rate in recent matches make him the favorite to take the opener.
- Dalla Valle has won the first set in 10 of his last 15 matches (66.7% set win rate overall).
- Brunold has a 55.6% set win rate in his last 15, with several slow starts.
- In their H2H, Dalla Valle took the first set 6-2.
BetBugs · Set 1 WinnerwonEnrico Dalla ValleEstimated chance60%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Market price 2.00
The read
Both players frequently engage in three-set battles, making Over 2.5 sets a likely outcome given their recent patterns.
- Dalla Valle's last 15 matches: 7 went to three sets (46.7%).
- Brunold's last 15 matches: 8 went to three sets (53.3%).
- Combined, 50% of their recent matches have gone the distance.
BetBugs · Total SetslostOver 2.5Estimated chance55%

Match stats0 of 1 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Both players have moderate double-fault rates, and the combined average suggests a likely Over 3.5 total.
- Dalla Valle averages 1.7 double faults per match in last 15.
- Brunold averages 2.1 double faults per match in last 15.
- Combined average is 3.8, and Brunold had 5 double faults in their H2H.
BetBugs · Total Double FaultsOver 3.5Estimated chance55%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Market price 2.60
The read
Both players have frequent tiebreak appearances, and the competitive nature of this matchup increases the likelihood of at least one tiebreak.
- Dalla Valle has played a tiebreak in 5 of his last 15 matches (33%).
- Brunold has played a tiebreak in 6 of his last 15 matches (40%).
- Their H2H featured a second-set tiebreak.
BetBugs · Tiebreak in MatchlostYesEstimated chance55%

Markets to Avoid

High-risk markets where price or context leaves too little cushion.

Pre-match flagged 2 avoid-market areas; caution remains warranted in high-variance spots.

Head-to-Head

1-0 (1 meetings)

W6-2 6-7(5) 6-3Enrico Dalla Valle#323vMika Brunold#420Apr 8, 2025

1 total meetings

Enrico Dalla Valle

10W 5L

6-3 7-6(3)—Mattia Logrippo

5-7 6-0 6-1#143Hugo Dellien

6-3 6-4#244Andrej Nedic

6-4 4-6 6-4#191Federico Agustin Gomez

6-1 6-1#884Ignacio Carou

6-3 6-0#1576Boris Arias

7-6(4) 7-6(5)#134Gustavo Heide

6-2 6-4#220Francesco Passaro

7-6(3) 6-1#142Stefano Travaglia

6-1 6-1#360Petr Nesterov

6-2 3-1 ret.#524Federico Arnaboldi

6-2 6-4#754Andres Santamarta Roig

6-0 6-2#864Nikita Bilozertsev

6-2 7-5#124Sebastian Ofner

6-2 6-3#531Alexander Weis

Mika Brunold

9W 6L

6-1 6-2—Alex De Gabriele

6-4 6-3#255Harold Mayot

6-1 6-0#289Miguel Damas

6-2 3-6 6-3#352Mili Poljicak

6-7(3) 7-6(4) 6-4#387Georgii Kravchenko

4-6 6-2 6-3#499Ryan Nijboer

6-3 6-2#492Miguel Tobon

6-2 3-6 6-2#222Yu Hsiou Hsu

7-6(10) 7-6(4)#418Massimo Giunta

7-6(2) 6-3#384Laurent Lokoli

5-3 ret.#782Kasra Rahmani

4-6 6-3 6-3#734Daniele Rapagnetta

6-3 6-1#289Miguel Damas

6-3 4-6 6-3#264Alex Barrena

4-6 6-4 6-2#387Georgii Kravchenko

Stat Battle

Last 15 match performance, compared side by side.

EVEnrico Dalla ValleValle

Last 15

6–2

9 core stats · 1 even

Mika BrunoldBrunoldMB

Enrico Dalla Valle carries the stronger recent form — Mika Brunold's route runs through pressure.

Serve · 4–1

1st Serve In64.6%+2.6pp67.2%

1st Serve Won76.2%+11.4pp64.8%

2nd Serve Won57.9%+5.4pp52.5%

Aces / Match4.3+2.61.7

Double Faults / Match1.70.4 fewer2.1

Return · 0–0 · 1 even

Return Pts Won40.6%—40.6%

Pressure · 1–1

Break Pts Converted41.1%+3.9pp45.0%

Break Pts Saved67.3%+9.6pp57.7%

Points · 1–0

Total Pts Won54.6%+3.8pp50.8%

Serve · 4–1

64.6%1st Serve In+2.6pp67.2%

76.2%1st Serve Won+11.4pp64.8%

57.9%2nd Serve Won+5.4pp52.5%

4.3Aces / Match+2.61.7

1.7Double Faults / Match0.4 fewer2.1

Return · 0–0 · 1 even

40.6%Return Pts Won—40.6%

Pressure · 1–1

41.1%Break Pts Converted+3.9pp45.0%

67.3%Break Pts Saved+9.6pp57.7%

Points · 1–0

54.6%Total Pts Won+3.8pp50.8%