Elisabetta Cocciaretto #68Italy22 – 1Clara Tauson #301

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Market price 1.83

The read

Despite Tauson's edge, Cocciaretto's competitiveness and both players' moderate break point conversion rates point to a match with at least 21 games, especially if it goes to three sets.

• Cocciaretto's last15Stats.overall average match duration: 113.2 minutes, with 51% games won, suggesting competitive matches.
• Tauson's last15Stats.overall average match duration: 106.9 minutes, with 47.7% games won, indicating she often plays tight sets.
• Both players have break point conversion rates below 50% (Cocciaretto 45.1%, Tauson 34.2%), which can extend games.
• In Tauson's last 6 hard-court matches, 4 had total games over 20.5, including three-setters.

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced

The read

Both players tend to play competitive first sets, and with Cocciaretto potentially starting slowly due to rust, a 7-5 or 6-4 set is likely, pushing the total over 9.5 games.

• Tauson's last15Stats.overall games won: 47.7%, indicating she often plays close sets.
• Cocciaretto's last15Stats.overall games won: 51%, also suggesting tight sets.
• In Tauson's last 6 hard-court matches, 4 first sets had 10+ games.
• Cocciaretto's first-set performance in last 5 matches: 2 wins, 3 losses, with an average of 9.6 games per first set.

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Market price 1.45

The read

Tauson's superior serve and recent match sharpness should allow her to start strongly, while Cocciaretto's rust and weaker first-serve consistency make an early lead likely for Tauson.

• Tauson's last15Stats.overall first serve points won: 67.4%, with 6.1 aces per match, indicating strong start potential.
• Cocciaretto's last15Stats.overall first serve points won: 63.9%, but only 61.8% first serve in, leading to pressure on second serve.
• Tauson's recent hard-court matches show she won the first set in 4 of her last 6 hard-court matches (including Athens).
• Cocciaretto's last 5 matches: 2-3 record, with first-set losses in 3 of those 5, including against lower-ranked opponents.

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced

The read

Tauson's high ace count on hard courts, combined with Cocciaretto's decent ace numbers on the surface, makes over 7.5 total aces very likely.

• Tauson's last15Stats.overall aces per match: 6.1, with 8.0 on hard courts specifically.
• Cocciaretto's last15Stats.overall aces per match: 1.8, with 4.0 on hard courts (small sample).
• Combined average aces in Tauson's hard-court matches: 8.0 (Tauson) + opponent aces (Cocciaretto's 4.0) = 12.0, well above 7.5.
• Tauson has hit 8+ aces in 4 of her last 6 hard-court matches.

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced

The read

Both players average over 3.5 double faults per match, and Cocciaretto's low first-serve percentage increases the likelihood of double faults, pushing the total over 7.5.

• Cocciaretto's last15Stats.overall double faults per match: 4.2, with 3.3 on hard courts.
• Tauson's last15Stats.overall double faults per match: 3.5, with 4.0 on hard courts.
• Combined average double faults: 4.2 + 3.5 = 7.7, slightly above 7.5.
• Cocciaretto's first serve percentage is only 61.8%, leading to more second serves and potential double faults.