TürkiyeSamsun - TurkeyFinished

Predictions graded

Constantin Bittoun Kouzmine #507France2Grigoriy Lomakin #898Kazakhstan0

Sets 6-3 · 6-1Mon 27 Jul 2026, 10:15 Predictions gradedQ3Hard

Predictions3–538%

Edges3–175%

Player Profiles

Ranking advantageConstantin Bittoun Kouzmine · 391 places

Constantin Bittoun Kouzmine

France

French left-hander, age 27 and 178 cm tall. He reached a career-high singles ranking of No. 462 on 27 November 2023.

Current ranking: #507
Peak ranking: #462 · 2023
Current age: 27
Preferred surface: —
Hand: Left handed
Height: 178 cm

Grigoriy Lomakin

Kazakhstan

Kazakh right-hander, age 28 and 198 cm tall. He reached a career-high singles ranking of No. 713 on 29 July 2024.

Current ranking: #898
Peak ranking: #713 · 2024
Current age: 28
Preferred surface: —
Hand: Right handed
Height: 198 cm

Quick Take

Pre-match view

Context last updated 27 Jul 2026, 15:20 · Europe/Bucharest

Bittoun Kouzmine is the better player but faces a severe recovery disadvantage after a same-day three-setter, while Lomakin had overnight rest.

The match is likely to be closer than odds suggest, with value in over 2.5 sets and over 21.5 total games. Avoid backing Bittoun Kouzmine at extremely short prices.

Context

Bittoun Kouzmine's Q1 match resumed at 09:30 local time and finished 2-6, 6-2, 6-3, with kickoff for this match at 10:15 UTC.
- Lomakin's Q1 match ended on July 26 with a 7-5, 7-5 win, giving him full overnight recovery.
- Bittoun Kouzmine's last 15 matches average 107.6 minutes, and he has played three three-setters in that span, indicating physical demands.
Lomakin's July 8 match ended in retirement at 3-2, recorded as a physical issue.
- He returned on July 26 and won 7-5, 7-5 over Viktor Markov, suggesting the issue may not be severe.
- No further retirements or withdrawals are noted in his recent form.
Bittoun Kouzmine's last 15: 10-5 record, 56.4% games won, 45% return points won.
- Lomakin's last 15: 8-7 record, 50.0% games won, 39.8% return points won.
- Bittoun Kouzmine converts 49.2% of break points vs Lomakin's 38.5%.

BetBugs edges

Compare BetBugs' chances with the market's.

Positive edges · 3

BetBugs probabilities

How likely BetBugs thought each outcome was.

Result1 of 1 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Market price 1.02
The read
Bittoun Kouzmine's superior recent form and return game give him a clear edge, though his same-day three-set recovery introduces some risk.
- Bittoun Kouzmine holds a 10-5 record in last 15 matches (66.7%) vs Lomakin's 8-7 (53.3%).
- Bittoun Kouzmine has won 56.4% of games in last 15, Lomakin 50.0%.
- Bittoun Kouzmine's return points won (45%) significantly exceeds Lomakin's (39.8%) in the recent window.
- Bittoun Kouzmine's break point conversion (49.2%) is stronger than Lomakin's (38.5%).
BetBugs · Match WinnerwonConstantin Bittoun KouzmineEstimated chance62%

Games1 of 4 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
With both players averaging around 20.5 games and the potential for a three-setter given Bittoun Kouzmine's fatigue, the total is likely to exceed 21.5.
- Bittoun Kouzmine's last 15 matches average 20.8 games per match (312 games / 15 matches).
- Lomakin's last 15 matches average 20.5 games per match (308 games / 15 matches).
- Both players have seen multiple three-set matches recently, pushing totals higher.
- Bittoun Kouzmine's fatigue may lead to closer sets and more games.
BetBugs · Total GameslostOver 21.5Estimated chance65%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Given both players' solid serving and recent tight first sets, over 9.5 games in set 1 is likely.
- Bittoun Kouzmine's recent first sets have often been competitive, with several 7-5 or 6-4 scores.
- Lomakin's last match saw a 7-5 first set.
- Both players have first-serve points won around 67%, suggesting holds are common.
BetBugs · Set 1 Total GameslostOver 9.5Estimated chance60%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Similar to set 1, the second set is expected to be tight, with over 9.5 games a reasonable outcome.
- Bittoun Kouzmine's second sets have often been close, with several 6-4 or 7-5 results.
- Lomakin's second sets have also been competitive, including a 7-5 in his last match.
- Fatigue for Bittoun Kouzmine may lead to more breaks and extended games.
BetBugs · Set 2 Total GameslostOver 9.5Estimated chance60%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
If Bittoun Kouzmine wins in straight sets, he is likely to cover -1.5 games, but his fatigue makes this less certain.
- Bittoun Kouzmine has a +6.4% game win edge in last 15 (56.4% vs 50.0%).
- In a best-of-3, a 2-0 win would cover -1.5 games.
- Bittoun Kouzmine's straight-set win rate is 7 of 10 wins in last 15.
BetBugs · Game HandicapwonConstantin Bittoun Kouzmine -1.5Estimated chance55%

Sets1 of 2 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Bittoun Kouzmine's high first-set conversion rate and better set-winning percentage suggest he is likely to take the opener.
- Bittoun Kouzmine's first-set win conversion rate is 87% career, indicating strong starts.
- Lomakin's first-set win conversion is 79%, slightly lower.
- Bittoun Kouzmine has won 62.9% of sets in last 15, Lomakin 54.5%.
BetBugs · Set 1 WinnerwonConstantin Bittoun KouzmineEstimated chance60%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Market price 4.50
The read
The combination of Bittoun Kouzmine's fatigue and both players' tendency to play three-setters suggests a decent chance of going the distance.
- Bittoun Kouzmine has played 3 three-set matches in his last 15 (20%).
- Lomakin has played 4 three-set matches in his last 15 (27%).
- Bittoun Kouzmine's same-day recovery may reduce his ability to close in straight sets.
BetBugs · Total SetslostOver 2.5Estimated chance55%

Match stats0 of 1 landed

Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
With Lomakin's strong serving and Bittoun Kouzmine contributing a few aces, the total could exceed 5.5, though it's a close call.
- Lomakin averages 3.8 aces per match in last 15, Bittoun Kouzmine 1.8.
- Combined average is 5.6 aces per match.
- Lomakin's height (198 cm) and serve profile suggest ace potential.
BetBugs · Total AcesOver 5.5Estimated chance55%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Both players have moderate double fault rates, and the combined average is just under 6.5, but fatigue for Bittoun Kouzmine could push it over.
- Bittoun Kouzmine averages 3.8 double faults per match in last 15.
- Lomakin averages 2.6 double faults per match in last 15.
- Combined average is 6.4 double faults per match.
BetBugs · Total Double FaultsOver 6.5Estimated chance55%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
With competitive sets likely, a tiebreak is a reasonable possibility, though not a high-probability event.
- Bittoun Kouzmine's tiebreak win percentage is 47% career, Lomakin's 40%.
- Both players have played tiebreaks in recent matches (Bittoun Kouzmine 2 in last 15, Lomakin 1).
- Close sets are expected given similar serve and return stats.
BetBugs · Tiebreak in MatchlostYesEstimated chance50%

Markets to Avoid

High-risk markets where price or context leaves too little cushion.

Pre-match flagged 3 avoid-market areas; caution remains warranted in high-variance spots.

Constantin Bittoun Kouzmine

10W 5L

2-6 6-2 6-3—Kerem Yilmaz

6-4 6-3#280Matteo Martineau

2-6 7-6(8) 6-2#356Ivan Marrero Curbelo

7-5 6-3#670Yaroslav Demin

6-3 3-6 6-4—Matias Reyniak

2-6 6-4 6-1#790Mert Naci Turker

7-5 6-4—Anmar Faleh Alhogbani

6-3 6-3—Udit Kamboj

6-0 6-0—Renato Kurmanaev

6-4 1-6 7-6(1)#811Keshav Chopra

6-3 6-1—Kerem Yilmaz

6-3 6-1—Birtan Duran

6-4 6-1—Bogdan Seleznev

6-2 6-1—Felix Roussel

6-4 6-3#558Guillaume Dalmasso

Grigoriy Lomakin

8W 7L

7-5 7-5—Viktor Markov

3-2 ret.—Yuta Tomida

6-3 2-6 6-4#712Tianhui Zhang

3-6 7-6(5) 6-4#744Martin Borisiouk

6-3 6-2#650Max Purcell

6-4 6-3—Shixun Zhu

6-1 6-2#1743Alberto Lim

6-4 6-4—Yaoyu Yang

6-2 6-3—Jingyao Lin

6-4 6-4—Zhenxiong Dong

6-2 6-3#894Hanyi Liu

7-5 3-1 ret.#1581Zhao Zhao

6-2 6-4—Jinpeng Tang

4-6 6-3 6-4—Lachlan Mcfadzean

7-5 4-6 6-4—Hugh Winter

Stat Battle

Last 15 match performance, compared side by side.

CKConstantin Bittoun KouzmineKouzmine

Last 15

6–3

9 core stats · 0 even

Grigoriy LomakinLomakinGL

Constantin Bittoun Kouzmine carries the stronger recent form — Grigoriy Lomakin's route runs through serve.

Serve · 2–3

1st Serve In15/15 · 12/1562.9%+3.6pp66.5%

1st Serve Won15/15 · 12/1567.7%+1.0pp66.7%

2nd Serve Won15/15 · 12/1549.2%+5.6pp43.6%

Aces / Match15/15 · 12/151.8+2.03.8

Double Faults / Match15/15 · 12/153.81.2 fewer2.6

Return · 1–0

Return Pts Won15/15 · 12/1545.0%+5.2pp39.8%

Pressure · 2–0

Break Pts Converted15/15 · 12/1549.2%+10.7pp38.5%

Break Pts Saved15/15 · 12/1562.5%+3.4pp59.1%

Points · 1–0

Total Pts Won15/15 · 12/1552.8%+3.5pp49.3%

Serve · 2–3

62.9%1st Serve In15/15 · 12/15+3.6pp66.5%

67.7%1st Serve Won15/15 · 12/15+1.0pp66.7%

49.2%2nd Serve Won15/15 · 12/15+5.6pp43.6%

1.8Aces / Match15/15 · 12/15+2.03.8

3.8Double Faults / Match15/15 · 12/151.2 fewer2.6

Return · 1–0

45.0%Return Pts Won15/15 · 12/15+5.2pp39.8%

Pressure · 2–0

49.2%Break Pts Converted15/15 · 12/15+10.7pp38.5%

62.5%Break Pts Saved15/15 · 12/15+3.4pp59.1%

Points · 1–0

52.8%Total Pts Won15/15 · 12/15+3.5pp49.3%

Constantin Bittoun Kouzmine #507France2Grigoriy Lomakin #898Kazakhstan0

Player Profiles

Constantin Bittoun Kouzmine

Grigoriy Lomakin

Quick Take

Context

BetBugs edges

Constantin Bittoun Kouzmine

Constantin Bittoun Kouzmine 2-0

Over 2.5

Constantin Bittoun Kouzmine

BetBugs probabilities

Result1 of 1 landed

Games1 of 4 landed

Sets1 of 2 landed

Match stats0 of 1 landed

Markets to Avoid

Constantin Bittoun Kouzmine @ 1.02

Under (2.5) @ 1.15

Constantin Bittoun Kouzmine

Grigoriy Lomakin

Stat Battle