Yexin Ma vs Aoi Ito: result, stats and head-to-head

Result0 of 1 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Market price 1.60
The read
Ito's dominant H2H and superior serve/return structure on hard courts give her a clear edge, despite Ma's fresher legs.
- H2H: Ito leads 2-0, both on hard courts, winning 7-5 6-3 and 6-2 6-1 in 2023.
- Ito's career hard-court win rate is 152-? (63.4% overall), while Ma's is 238-? (54.4% overall).
- Ito's last 15 hard-court record: 3-4 (42.9%), Ma's: 4-5 (44.4%), but Ito faced stronger opponents (avg rank ~200 vs ~400).
- Ito's first-serve percentage (70% career) and return points won (48% career) edge Ma's 58% and 47%.
BetBugs · Match WinnerlostAoi ItoEstimated chance62%

Games3 of 3 landed

Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Combined game averages and error-prone serving patterns suggest a match exceeding 20.5 games, though confidence is low due to variable form.
- Ma's last 15 matches averaged 20.1 total games, Ito's averaged 22.2.
- Both players have high double-fault rates (Ma 4.0, Ito 4.5 per match), extending games.
- Ito's recent three-setter vs. Sharma (30 games) and Ma's three-setter vs. Wong (25 games) indicate potential for long matches.
BetBugs · Total GameswonOver 20.5Estimated chance55%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Ma's bye and Ito's short turnaround may narrow the gap, making +3.5 games a reasonable cover despite Ito's historical edge.
- Ma's last 15 matches: average game differential -1.3, Ito's: -0.7.
- H2H margins: Ito won by 4 and 9 games, but Ma's recent competitiveness has improved.
- Ma's fresher physical state could keep the match closer than H2H suggests.
BetBugs · Game HandicapwonYexin Ma +3.5Estimated chance55%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Historical data and H2H suggest a tight first set, but low confidence due to small sample and surface consistency.
- Ma's last 15 first sets averaged 9.3 games, Ito's averaged 9.5.
- H2H first sets: 12 and 8 games, averaging 10.
- Both players have break-point conversion rates around 42-46%, leading to competitive sets.
BetBugs · Set 1 Total GameswonOver 9.5Estimated chance52%

Sets0 of 1 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Market price 1.65
The read
Ito's historical H2H dominance in opening sets and high career first-set conversion rate suggest she will start strongly again.
- Ito won the first set in both H2H meetings (7-5, 6-2).
- Ito's first-set win conversion rate is 89% career, indicating strong starts.
- Ma's recent first-set performance: won 6 of last 15 matches (40%), Ito won 5 of last 15 (33%), but Ito's wins were against tougher opposition.
BetBugs · Set 1 WinnerlostAoi ItoEstimated chance60%

Match stats0 of 1 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Both players are low-ace hitters, making under 5.5 total aces highly probable based on consistent career and recent data.
- Ma averages 1.9 aces per match (last 15), Ito 1.4.
- Combined average: 3.3 aces per match.
- Career ace counts: Ma 732 in 575 matches (1.27 per match), Ito 277 in 295 (0.94 per match).
BetBugs · Total AcesUnder 5.5Estimated chance65%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Recent form indicates both players are prone to double faults, pushing the total comfortably over 7.5.
- Ma averages 4.0 double faults per match (last 15), Ito 4.5.
- Combined average: 8.5 double faults per match.
- Career double-fault rates: Ma 1765 in 575 matches (3.07 per match), Ito 831 in 295 (2.82 per match), but recent windows show higher rates.
BetBugs · Total Double FaultsOver 7.5Estimated chance60%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
While both have moderate tiebreak frequencies, the H2H and recent match dynamics slightly favor a straight-sets outcome without a tiebreak.
- Ma's tiebreak win rate is 53% career, Ito's 44%.
- In last 15 matches, Ma played 2 tiebreaks, Ito played 3.
- H2H matches had no tiebreaks.
BetBugs · Tiebreak in MatchlostNoEstimated chance55%

The percentage shows our estimated chance. Tap a row for the context and share card.18+ · predictions, not guarantees

Yexin Ma #195China2Aoi Ito #233Japan1

Player Profiles

Yexin Ma

Aoi Ito

Quick Take

Context

BetBugs edges

Aoi Ito 2-0

Aoi Ito

Aoi Ito

BetBugs probabilities

Result0 of 1 landed

Games3 of 3 landed

Sets0 of 1 landed

Match stats0 of 1 landed

Markets to Avoid

Yexin Ma +2.5 @ 1.90

Head-to-Head

Yexin Ma

Aoi Ito

Stat Battle