SwitzerlandZug - SwitzerlandFinished

Predictions graded

Marc-Andrea Huesler #297Switzerland0Thiago Seyboth Wild #276Brazil2

Sets 4-6 · 3-6Sun 26 Jul 2026, 13:30 Predictions gradedFinalClay

Predictions4–450%

Edges2–0100%

Player Profiles

Ranking advantageThiago Seyboth Wild · 21 places

Marc-Andrea Huesler

Switzerland

The 30-year-old Swiss left-hander reached a career-high No. 47 on 13 February 2023. His listed preferred surface is indoor hard.

Current ranking: #297
Peak ranking: #47 · 2023
Current age: 30
Preferred surface: Indoor hard
Hand: Left handed
Height: 196 cm

Thiago Seyboth Wild

Brazil

The 26-year-old Brazilian right-hander reached a career-high No. 58 on 20 May 2024. His listed preferred surface is clay.

Current ranking: #276
Peak ranking: #58 · 2024
Current age: 26
Preferred surface: Clay
Hand: Right handed
Height: 185 cm

Quick Take

Pre-match view

Context last updated 26 Jul 2026, 16:06 · Europe/Bucharest

Thiago Seyboth Wild's dominant recent form (12-3 last 15) and much fresher physical condition after a 1h13m semifinal give him a clear edge over Marc-Andrea Huesler, who battled for 2h25m.

Back Seyboth Wild to win the match and the first set, with over 21.5 total games a solid play on the clay.

Context

Seyboth Wild's semifinal lasted 1:13:30, Huesler's 2:25:27.
- Huesler spent 72 more minutes on court the day before the final.
- Seyboth Wild has not dropped a set in his last three matches, conserving energy.
Seyboth Wild last15 return points won: 42.6% (430/1009).
- Huesler last15 return points won: 35.1% (366/1044).
- Seyboth Wild converts 50% of break points, Huesler 45.2%.
Huesler last15 record: 8-7 (53.3%), Seyboth Wild: 12-3 (80%).
- Seyboth Wild won a Challenger title on clay less than a month ago.
- Huesler's wins came against lower-ranked opponents except Carballes Baena (No. 177).

BetBugs edges

Compare BetBugs' chances with the market's.

BetBugs probabilities

How likely BetBugs thought each outcome was.

Result1 of 1 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Market price 1.73
The read
Seyboth Wild's superior recent form (80% win rate, dominant return stats) and fresher physical condition after a much shorter semifinal give him a clear edge on clay.
- Seyboth Wild last15 overall record 12-3 (80%), Huesler 8-7 (53.3%)
- Seyboth Wild last15 return points won 42.6% vs Huesler 35.1%
- Seyboth Wild last15 break point conversion 50% vs Huesler 45.2%
- Huesler semifinal 2h25m vs Seyboth Wild 1h13m, heavier recovery load
BetBugs · Match WinnerwonThiago Seyboth WildEstimated chance62%

Games1 of 3 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
With both players showing solid serve and break point resilience, and clay favoring longer points, the match is likely to exceed 21.5 games.
- Huesler last15 average games per match 22.9, Seyboth Wild 21.5
- Both players have high hold/break dynamics; Huesler last15 break points saved 69.2%, Seyboth Wild 61.6%
- Clay surface tends to produce longer rallies and more games
BetBugs · Total GameslostOver 21.5Estimated chance65%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
The combination of effective serving and clay-court dynamics makes a tight first set with over 9.5 games probable.
- Huesler last15 average games per set 10.1, Seyboth Wild 9.2
- Both players have strong first-serve win percentages (Huesler 75.7%, Seyboth Wild 71.8%)
- Clay surface reduces quick breaks, increasing set length
BetBugs · Set 1 Total GameswonOver 9.5Estimated chance60%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Consistent serving and return dynamics should carry into the second set, making over 9.5 games likely.
- Similar to set 1, both players maintain high serve win rates in second sets
- Huesler last15 second serve points won 52.7%, Seyboth Wild 56.5%
- No significant drop-off in serve performance in later sets
BetBugs · Set 2 Total GameslostOver 9.5Estimated chance60%

Sets1 of 1 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Market price 1.75
The read
Seyboth Wild's strong first-set record in recent matches and superior return game suggest he is likely to start quickly and take the opening set.
- Seyboth Wild last15 first set win rate 80% (12 of 15 matches)
- Huesler last15 first set win rate 53.3% (8 of 15 matches)
- Seyboth Wild last15 return points won 42.6%, Huesler 35.1%
BetBugs · Set 1 WinnerwonThiago Seyboth WildEstimated chance60%

Match stats0 of 1 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Both players average over 7 aces per match, and with a likely three-set contest, total aces should surpass 12.5.
- Huesler last15 aces per match 8.3, Seyboth Wild 7.5
- Combined average aces per match ~15.8
- Clay surface slightly reduces ace count but both are capable servers
BetBugs · Total AcesOver 12.5Estimated chance60%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
With low double-fault rates from both players, the total is likely to stay under 4.5.
- Huesler last15 double faults per match 2.2, Seyboth Wild 1.6
- Combined average double faults per match ~3.8
- Both players maintain solid second-serve discipline
BetBugs · Total Double FaultsUnder 4.5Estimated chance60%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
The competitive nature of the match and both players' tendency to play tiebreaks make at least one tiebreak likely.
- Huesler career tiebreak win rate 51%, Seyboth Wild 48%
- Both players have played multiple tiebreaks in recent matches (Huesler 3 in last 15, Seyboth Wild 4)
- Close sets expected given similar serve/return profiles
BetBugs · Tiebreak in MatchlostYesEstimated chance55%

Marc-Andrea Huesler

8W 7L

7-6(5) 4-6 6-4#409Max Hans Rehberg

6-3 6-2#357Dominic Stricker

6-2 7-5#283Juan Bautista Torres

6-3 7-6(6)#177Roberto Carballes Baena

6-4 7-6(3)#161Clement Tabur

6-4 6-3#233Edas Butvilas

6-3 6-3#73Zachary Svajda

3-6 6-3 7-6(8)#62Martin Landaluce

7-6(1) 6-4#178Gauthier Onclin

6-1 7-5#130Nikoloz Basilashvili

6-2 2-6 7-6(3)#158Zhizhen Zhang

6-4 5-7 7-6(2)#162Alexis Galarneau

6-4 6-4#161Clement Tabur

7-6(7) 6-3#55Botic Van De Zandschulp

6-0 6-1#351Marko Topo

Thiago Seyboth Wild

12W 3L

6-4 6-3#556Dylan Dietrich

6-1 7-6(1)#294Philip Henning

7-6(8) 4-6 6-3#206Daniel Rincon

6-3 6-2#154Zdenek Kolar

5-7 6-4 6-3#550Matyas Fuele

2-6 6-3 7-5#546Peter Makk

6-4 6-3#115Dalibor Svrcina

6-2 6-4#760Vincent Marysko

6-1 6-2—Oliver Majdandzic

6-2 6-2#320Gonzalo Villanueva

6-3 6-3#282Juan Manuel La Serna

6-0 1-0 ret.#350Nicolas Kicker

7-6(3) 7-6(6)#671Lucas Andrade Da Silva

2-6 6-3 6-2—Luis Felipe Miguel

6-4 3-6 7-5#274Nick Hardt

Stat Battle

Last 15 match performance, compared side by side.

MHMarc-Andrea HueslerHuesler

Last 15

3–6

9 core stats · 0 even

Thiago Seyboth WildWildTW

Thiago Seyboth Wild carries the stronger recent form — Marc-Andrea Huesler's route runs through serve.

Serve · 2–3

1st Serve In62.5%+2.7pp65.2%

1st Serve Won75.7%+3.9pp71.8%

2nd Serve Won52.7%+3.8pp56.5%

Aces / Match8.3+0.87.5

Double Faults / Match2.20.6 fewer1.6

Return · 0–1

Return Pts Won35.1%+7.5pp42.6%

Pressure · 1–1

Break Pts Converted45.2%+4.8pp50.0%

Break Pts Saved69.2%+7.6pp61.6%

Points · 0–1

Total Pts Won51.3%+3.3pp54.6%

Serve · 2–3

62.5%1st Serve In+2.7pp65.2%

75.7%1st Serve Won+3.9pp71.8%

52.7%2nd Serve Won+3.8pp56.5%

8.3Aces / Match+0.87.5

2.2Double Faults / Match0.6 fewer1.6

Return · 0–1

35.1%Return Pts Won+7.5pp42.6%

Pressure · 1–1

45.2%Break Pts Converted+4.8pp50.0%

69.2%Break Pts Saved+7.6pp61.6%

Points · 0–1

51.3%Total Pts Won+3.3pp54.6%