James McCabe #240Australia00 – 2Alex Bolt #167Australia2

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Market price 1.90

The read

Bolt's recent hard court form (50% win rate, 57.9% sets won) and higher tournament seeding give him a slight edge over McCabe's weaker hard court stats (33.3% win rate).

• Bolt leads H2H 1-1, winning the most recent meeting on hard court in April 2026 (7-5 7-6(2)).
• Bolt's last15Stats.overall on hard: 50% win rate (4-4), 57.9% sets won, 49.8% games won; McCabe's hard last15: 33.3% win rate (1-2), 42.9% sets won.
• Bolt holds No. 10 qualifying seed in Washington, indicating higher current tournament status.
• Bolt's career hard court win percentage: 284 wins vs McCabe's 153, showing greater hard court experience.

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Market price 1.70

The read

Both players have competitive recent matches with high game counts, and their H2H history shows tight contests, making over 22.5 games likely.

• Both players' last15Stats.overall average match duration: McCabe 101 min, Bolt 103.3 min, indicating competitive matches.
• McCabe's last15 hard court games per match average: 40 games in 3 matches (13.3 per match), but small sample; overall last15 games per match: 23.5.
• Bolt's last15 hard court games per match average: 201 games in 8 matches (25.1 per match).
• H2H matches: 2026 (22 games), 2022 (20 games), both went over 22.5.

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Market price 1.85

The read

Both players consistently play tight first sets on hard courts, with averages well above 9.5 games, supporting an over.

• McCabe's last15 hard court first set games: 12, 13, 13 in three matches (avg 12.7).
• Bolt's last15 hard court first set games: 13, 13, 13, 13, 13, 12, 13, 12 (avg 12.75).
• H2H first sets: 12 games (2026), 10 games (2022).

Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced

The read

Bolt's slightly better first serve performance on hard courts and recent H2H first set win suggest a marginal advantage in the opening set.

• Bolt won the first set in their most recent H2H (7-5) and has a career first set win conversion of 86%.
• McCabe's last15Stats.overall first serve points won: 73.5%, but his hard court first serve in is only 57.5%.
• Bolt's hard court last15 first serve points won: 72.9%, with a higher first serve in percentage (61.6%).

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced

The read

High frequency of tiebreaks in both players' recent matches and H2H history makes a tiebreak likely in this competitive matchup.

• McCabe's last15Stats.overall: 7 of 15 matches featured a tiebreak (46.7%); Bolt: 8 of 15 (53.3%).
• H2H: Both matches had a tiebreak (2026: second set; 2022: second set).
• Both players have career tiebreak win percentages around 52-55%, indicating frequent tiebreaks.

Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced

The read

Combined ace averages from recent and H2H data exceed 12.5, though small sample sizes on hard courts reduce confidence.

• McCabe's last15Stats.overall aces per match: 6.9; Bolt's: 6.5, combined average 13.4.
• On hard courts, McCabe averages 7.0 aces, Bolt 6.1, combined 13.1.
• H2H stats: McCabe 19 aces in 2 matches (9.5 per match), Bolt 16 (8.0 per match), combined 17.5 per match.

Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced

The read

Overall recent averages suggest combined double faults near 3.3, but hard court data is mixed; lean under due to low overall numbers.

• McCabe's last15Stats.overall double faults per match: 1.9; Bolt's: 1.4, combined 3.3.
• On hard courts, McCabe averages 3.3 double faults (small sample), Bolt 1.4, combined 4.7, but McCabe's high number is from only 3 matches.
• H2H: McCabe 4 double faults in 2 matches (2.0 per match), Bolt 5 (2.5 per match), combined 4.5 per match.