AustriaATP KitzbuhelFinishedFeatured

Predictions graded

Alexander Bublik #11Kazakhstan0Quentin Halys #83France2

Sets 4-6 · 6-7Sat 25 Jul 2026, 11:22 Predictions gradedFinalClay

Predictions7–188%

Edges3–175%

Player Profiles

Ranking advantageAlexander Bublik · 72 places

Alexander Bublik

Kazakhstan

Reached a career-high No. 10 in January 2026 after the Hong Kong title. Official profiles list hard as his preferred surface, and his 2025-26 rise also included ATP titles on clay and grass.

Current ranking: #11
Peak ranking: #10 · 2026
Current age: 29
Preferred surface: Hard
Hand: Right handed
Height: 196 cm

Quentin Halys

France

Halys reached a career-high No. 46 in June 2025 after his Roland Garros third-round run. ATP bio lists hard as his preferred surface.

Current ranking: #83
Peak ranking: #46 · 2025
Current age: 29
Preferred surface: Hard
Hand: Right handed
Height: 191 cm

Quick Take

Pre-match view

Context last updated 24 Jul 2026, 22:09 · Europe/Bucharest

Quentin Halys enters the Kitzbuhel final with superior recent clay form and a head-to-head win over defending champion Alexander Bublik, making him a value underdog at 2.75 odds.

Expect a tight, serve-dominated match likely to feature tiebreaks and over 22.5 total games, with the first set over 9.5 games offering the best betting edge.

Context

Halys clay last15: 7-2 record, 69.6% sets won, 71.7% break points saved.
- Bublik clay last15: 4-3 record, 57.9% sets won, 69.6% break points saved.
- Halys beat Bublik 6-7(4) 6-4 7-6(5) on clay on 2026-07-17.
- Halys has won 4 straight matches in Kitzbuhel, all in straight sets.
Bublik had a first-round bye and won three straight-set matches (vs Diaz Acosta, Molcan, Etcheverry).
- Halys played four main-draw matches from 21-24 July, all in straight sets but with one extra match of workload.
- Bublik won the 2025 Kitzbuhel title and is seeking back-to-back crowns.
H2H on clay (2026-07-17): Halys won 6-7(4) 6-4 7-6(5) with 27 total aces.
- Bublik won 82% of first-serve points and 62% of second-serve points in that match.
- Halys won 92% of first-serve points and 63% of second-serve points.
- Both players have high tiebreak rates on clay (Bublik 54% career, Halys 53% career).

BetBugs edges

Compare BetBugs' chances with the market's.

Positive edges · 3

BetBugs probabilities

How likely BetBugs thought each outcome was.

Result1 of 1 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Market price 2.75
The read
Halys's superior recent clay form (7-2 vs 4-3) and direct H2H win give him a slight edge, despite Bublik's lighter route to the final.
- Halys leads H2H 1-0 on clay, winning 6-7(4) 6-4 7-6(5) on 2026-07-17.
- Halys clay last15: 7-2 record, 69.6% sets won, 71.7% break points saved.
- Bublik clay last15: 4-3 record, 57.9% sets won, 69.6% break points saved.
- Halys has won 4 straight matches in Kitzbuhel, all in straight sets.
BetBugs · Match WinnerwonQuentin HalysEstimated chance55%

Games4 of 4 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Market price 1.91
The read
Both players have been involved in tight opening sets on clay, with tiebreaks common, making over 9.5 games likely.
- H2H first set went to 13 games (7-6).
- Bublik's last 5 clay first sets: 9, 9, 9, 13, 10 games.
- Halys's last 5 clay first sets: 10, 12, 9, 13, 13 games.
BetBugs · Set 1 Total GameswonOver 9.5Estimated chance62%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Market price 1.55
The read
Close clay-court match expected with strong serving and tiebreak potential, pushing total games over 22.5.
- H2H match had 36 games (6-7, 6-4, 7-6).
- Bublik's last 5 clay matches averaged 22.6 games.
- Halys's last 5 clay matches averaged 22.4 games.
- Both players have high tiebreak rates on clay (Bublik 54% career, Halys 53% career).
BetBugs · Total GameswonOver 22.5Estimated chance60%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Halys's strong clay form and tight H2H suggest he will keep the match close, covering +1.5 games.
- H2H: Halys won by 2 games (19-17).
- Halys clay last15: 52.4% games won.
- Bublik clay last15: 52.5% games won.
- Halys has covered +1.5 in 8 of his last 9 clay matches.
BetBugs · Game HandicapwonQuentin Halys +1.5Estimated chance58%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Second sets in their recent clay matches often reach at least 10 games, supporting over 9.5.
- H2H second set had 10 games (6-4).
- Bublik's last 5 clay second sets: 9, 9, 12, 10, 10 games.
- Halys's last 5 clay second sets: 10, 8, 10, 10, 9 games.
BetBugs · Set 2 Total GameswonOver 9.5Estimated chance55%

Sets1 of 2 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Market price 2.10
The read
Evenly matched on clay with recent three-set trends, making a deciding set more likely than not.
- H2H went to 3 sets.
- Bublik's last 5 clay matches: 3 three-setters.
- Halys's last 5 clay matches: 2 three-setters.
- Both have deciding set win rates above 60% (Bublik 62% career, Halys 49% career but 71% on clay last15).
BetBugs · Total SetslostOver 2.5Estimated chance55%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Halys's strong start trend on clay and H2H evidence suggest a slight first-set advantage.
- Halys won the first set in their only H2H meeting (7-6).
- Halys has won the first set in 7 of his last 9 clay matches.
- Bublik has lost the first set in 3 of his last 7 clay matches.
BetBugs · Set 1 WinnerwonQuentin HalysEstimated chance52%

Match stats1 of 1 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Both players have high tiebreak rates on clay and their H2H featured two, making a tiebreak very likely.
- H2H had two tiebreaks.
- Bublik career tiebreak win rate: 54%, Halys: 53%.
- Bublik's last 5 clay matches: 3 with at least one tiebreak.
- Halys's last 5 clay matches: 3 with at least one tiebreak.
BetBugs · Tiebreak in MatchwonYesEstimated chance65%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Both are big servers even on clay, and their H2H produced 27 aces, so over 18.5 is well-supported.
- H2H: Bublik 13 aces, Halys 14 aces (27 total).
- Bublik clay last15: 12.0 aces per match.
- Halys clay last15: 10.9 aces per match.
- Combined average on clay: 22.9 aces per match.
BetBugs · Total AcesOver 18.5Estimated chance60%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Bublik's high double fault rate on clay (5.0 per match) and H2H evidence push the total over 7.5.
- H2H: Bublik 6 double faults, Halys 5 (11 total).
- Bublik clay last15: 5.0 double faults per match.
- Halys clay last15: 3.1 double faults per match.
- Combined average on clay: 8.1 double faults per match.
BetBugs · Total Double FaultsOver 7.5Estimated chance55%

Head-to-Head

0-1 (1 meetings)

L6-7(4) 6-4 7-6(5)Alexander Bublik#11vQuentin Halys#83Jul 17, 2026

1 total meetings

Alexander Bublik

9W 6L

6-3 6-4#31Tomas Martin Etcheverry

6-3 6-2#81Alex Molcan

6-3 7-5#108Facundo Diaz Acosta

6-7(4) 6-4 7-6(5)#83Quentin Halys

7-6(1) 6-4 6-4#10Taylor Fritz

4-6 7-6(5) 7-6(11) 4-6 6-3#17Frances Tiafoe

6-3 6-4 7-6(5)#134Kyrian Jacquet

4-6 6-3 6-7(10) 6-3 6-4#456Thanasi Kokkinakis

7-6(6) 6-1#79Mattia Bellucci

6-4 6-4#10Taylor Fritz

7-6(5) 7-6(3)#89Giovanni Mpetshi Perricard

7-6(3) 3-6 6-2#41Jan-Lennard Struff

7-5 6-7(6) 6-4 7-5#41Jan-Lennard Struff

6-1 4-6 7-6(5)#16Learner Tien

5-7 6-4 6-2#27Arthur Rinderknech

Quentin Halys

9W 6L

6-4 7-6(2)#52Yannick Hanfmann

7-5 6-3#47Mariano Navone

6-3 6-4#19Valentin Vacherot

7-6(4) 6-4#221Laslo Djere

6-7(4) 6-4 7-6(5)#11Alexander Bublik

7-6(5) 6-3#84Alexander Shevchenko

6-3 3-6 7-6(6)#184Federico Cina

7-6(5) 6-3 6-4#85Marcos Giron

3-6 6-1 7-6(5) 6-3#33Matteo Arnaldi

6-3 6-4#29Ugo Humbert

6-1 7-5#254Giles Hussey

6-2 6-4#127Toby Samuel

6-4 6-2#97Sho Shimabukuro

6-4 6-3 5-7 6-2#2Alexander Zverev

6-4 7-6(4) 7-6(8)#29Ugo Humbert

Stat Battle

Last 15 match performance, compared side by side.

ABAlexander BublikBublik

Last 15

5–3

9 core stats · 1 even

Quentin HalysHalysQH

Alexander Bublik carries the stronger recent form — Quentin Halys's route runs through serve.

Serve · 3–2

1st Serve In66.3%+9.2pp57.1%

1st Serve Won79.3%+0.9pp78.4%

2nd Serve Won50.3%+2.4pp52.7%

Aces / Match15.5+6.09.5

Double Faults / Match4.20.8 fewer3.4

Return · 0–1

Return Pts Won32.2%+1.2pp33.4%

Pressure · 2–0

Break Pts Converted36.5%+2.4pp34.1%

Break Pts Saved65.1%+2.4pp62.7%

Points · 0–0 · 1 even

Total Pts Won50.7%—50.4%

Serve · 3–2

66.3%1st Serve In+9.2pp57.1%

79.3%1st Serve Won+0.9pp78.4%

50.3%2nd Serve Won+2.4pp52.7%

15.5Aces / Match+6.09.5

4.2Double Faults / Match0.8 fewer3.4

Return · 0–1

32.2%Return Pts Won+1.2pp33.4%

Pressure · 2–0

36.5%Break Pts Converted+2.4pp34.1%

65.1%Break Pts Saved+2.4pp62.7%

Points · 0–0 · 1 even

50.7%Total Pts Won—50.4%

Alexander Bublik

Quentin Halys

Quick Take

Context

BetBugs edges

Over 9.5

Quentin Halys

Over 2.5

Over 22.5

Result1 of 1 landed

Games4 of 4 landed

Sets1 of 2 landed

Match stats1 of 1 landed

Head-to-Head

Alexander Bublik

Quentin Halys

Stat Battle