Luka Pavlovic #278France22 – 0Mert Alkaya #309Türkiye0

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Market price 1.73

The read

Alkaya's superior return game and larger hard-court sample give him a slight edge in a match where both players are in similar form.

• Alkaya has a 50% win rate on hard courts in his last 12 matches (6-6), while Pavlovic is 2-1 (66.7%) but with only 3 matches tracked, making Alkaya's sample more reliable.
• Alkaya's return points won on hard is 36.6% vs Pavlovic's 32.3%, giving Alkaya a clear edge in breaking serve.
• Alkaya's break point conversion on hard is 42.5% vs Pavlovic's 40%, and Alkaya saves 68.7% of break points vs Pavlovic's 81% (small sample for Pavlovic).
• Alkaya's recent form includes straight-set wins over Santillan and Ficovich in this tournament, while Pavlovic needed three sets against Kumasaka.

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Market price 1.80

The read

Both players' recent hard-court matches trend toward higher game totals, and their hold percentages support a competitive match with at least 22 games.

• Pavlovic's last 3 hard-court matches averaged 22.7 games per match, with two of three going over 21.5 games.
• Alkaya's last 12 hard-court matches averaged 21.8 games per match, with 7 of 12 going over 21.5 games.
• Both players have strong hold percentages: Pavlovic 81% break points saved on hard, Alkaya 68.7%, suggesting fewer breaks and longer sets.

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Market price 1.91

The read

Strong serving and competitive first sets in recent hard-court matches point to a first set with at least 10 games.

• Pavlovic's last 3 hard-court first sets: 6-4, 3-6, 6-4 (average 9.7 games, all over 9.5).
• Alkaya's last 12 hard-court first sets averaged 9.8 games, with 8 of 12 going over 9.5.
• Both players have first-serve points won above 72% on hard, making early breaks less likely.

Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced

The read

Pavlovic's second sets have been long on hard courts, and Alkaya's second-set stats are close to the line, making over 9.5 a reasonable outcome.

• Pavlovic's last 3 hard-court second sets: 7-6, 6-1, 7-6 (average 10.3 games, all over 9.5).
• Alkaya's last 12 hard-court second sets averaged 9.3 games, with 6 of 12 over 9.5.
• Both players' second-serve points won on hard are around 52%, which could lead to tighter games in the second set.

Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced

The read

Alkaya's consistent first-set performance on hard courts and return edge make him a slight favorite to take the opener.

• Alkaya has won the first set in 8 of his last 12 hard-court matches (67%), while Pavlovic has won the first set in 2 of his last 3 hard-court matches (67%), but sample size is small.
• Alkaya's first-serve points won on hard is 72.9% vs Pavlovic's 77.5%, but Pavlovic's first-serve percentage is higher (58.9% vs 55.7%).
• Alkaya's return points won on hard is 36.6%, which could pressure Pavlovic's serve early.

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced

The read

Pavlovic's recent hard-court matches frequently feature tiebreaks, and both players' serving stats support at least one tiebreak in the match.

• Pavlovic has played a tiebreak in 2 of his last 3 hard-court matches (67%).
• Alkaya has played a tiebreak in 5 of his last 12 hard-court matches (42%).
• Both players have first-serve points won above 72% on hard, indicating strong serving that can lead to tiebreaks.