PortugalATP EstorilFinished

Predictions graded

Jaime Faria #88Portugal1Luciano Darderi #21Italy2

Sets 6-2 · 5-7 · 2-6Fri 24 Jul 2026, 18:35 Predictions gradedQuarter-FinalClay

Predictions5–363%

Edges3–350%

Player Profiles

Ranking advantageLuciano Darderi · 67 places

Jaime Faria

Portugal

ATP's bio lists clay as his favourite surface. He reached a career-high No. 87 in February 2025, and the provided structured data places him at No. 88 for this match.

Current ranking: #88
Peak ranking: #87
Current age: —
Preferred surface: Clay
Hand: Right handed
Height: 188 cm

Luciano Darderi

Italy

ITF lists clay as his preferred surface. He reached a career-high No. 16 on 2026-05-18, and the provided structured data lists him at No. 21 for this match.

Current ranking: #21
Peak ranking: #16 · 2026
Current age: 24
Preferred surface: Clay
Hand: Right handed
Height: 183 cm

Quick Take

Pre-match view

Context last updated 24 Jul 2026, 06:21 · Europe/Bucharest

Faria's home-court advantage and superior recent clay form (75% win rate) give him a slight edge over Darderi, who looked sharp in a 6-0 6-1 win but faces a tougher test.

The match is likely to be close, with value on Faria moneyline (+2.75) and over 9.5 games in set one, while the over 22.5 total games should be avoided due to both players' trend toward shorter clay matches.

Context

Faria beat Botic van de Zandschulp 6-3 6-4 on 21 July and Gonzalo Bueno 6-2 6-4 on 23 July.
- He has won 75% of his last 8 clay matches, with a 54% games-won rate.
- His last-5 clay matches include wins over Struff and Shapovalov, showing he can handle quality opponents.
Darderi took a fall and checked his right ankle early in the Martinez match on 23 July.
- He resumed immediately and won 12 of the next 13 games, showing no visible limitation.
- No medical timeout or further concern has been reported since.
Faria defeated Darderi 6-3 6-4 in February 2025 on clay.
- Darderi won their first meeting 6-0 6-1 in 2022, but both players have developed significantly since.
- The H2H is 1-1 on clay, but the most recent result favors Faria.

BetBugs edges

Compare BetBugs' chances with the market's.

BetBugs probabilities

How likely BetBugs thought each outcome was.

Result0 of 1 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Market price 2.75
The read
Faria's superior recent clay win rate (75% vs 66.7%) and home-court advantage give him a slight edge, supported by his straight-sets win in their last clay meeting.
- Faria last15 on clay: 75% win (6-2), 54% games won, 51.8% total points won, 37.4% return points won.
- Darderi last15 on clay: 66.7% win (8-4), 53.2% games won, 51.1% total points won, 37.7% return points won.
- Faria H2H won most recent meeting 6-3 6-4 on clay (Feb 2025).
- Faria home event momentum: straight-set wins over van de Zandschulp and Bueno this week.
BetBugs · Match WinnerlostJaime FariaEstimated chance55%

Games3 of 4 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Despite some quick wins, both players have had enough competitive clay matches recently to expect a close contest, pushing total games over 21.5.
- Faria last15 clay matches: average 17.4 games per match (129 games/8 matches), but 4 of 8 went over 21.5.
- Darderi last15 clay matches: average 13.1 games per match (157/12), but 5 of 12 went over 21.5.
- H2H matches: 15 and 13 games, both under 21.5, but small sample.
BetBugs · Total GameswonOver 21.5Estimated chance60%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Market price 1.91
The read
With both players holding serve effectively on clay, the first set is likely to be tight, exceeding 9.5 games.
- Faria last15 clay: 5 of 8 first sets had 10+ games.
- Darderi last15 clay: 7 of 12 first sets had 10+ games.
- Both players have strong serve stats on clay: Faria 76.8% first-serve points won, Darderi 71%.
BetBugs · Set 1 Total GameslostOver 9.5Estimated chance60%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
The match is expected to be close, with Darderi likely to stay within 3.5 games of Faria, given their similar recent clay performance.
- Faria last15 clay: average margin +1.5 games per match (129-117).
- Darderi last15 clay: average margin +0.5 games per match (157-138).
- H2H margins: Faria +5, Darderi +11.
BetBugs · Game HandicapwonLuciano Darderi +3.5Estimated chance60%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Market price 1.91
The read
Similar to the first set, the second set is expected to be competitive, with a good chance of exceeding 9.5 games.
- Faria last15 clay: 5 of 8 second sets had 10+ games.
- Darderi last15 clay: 6 of 12 second sets had 10+ games.
- Both players have break-point save rates around 65% on clay, indicating resilience.
BetBugs · Set 2 Total GameswonOver 9.5Estimated chance55%

Sets1 of 1 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Market price 2.40
The read
Both players have high first-set win conversion rates, but Faria's recent clay form and home support give him a marginal edge to take the opener.
- Faria first-set win conversion career: 87%.
- Darderi first-set win conversion career: 88%.
- Faria last15 on clay: 75% win, often starting strong with straight-set wins in Estoril.
BetBugs · Set 1 WinnerwonJaime FariaEstimated chance55%

Match stats0 of 1 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Faria's high ace count on clay (9.0 per match) combined with Darderi's moderate numbers pushes the expected total aces over 12.5.
- Faria last15 on clay: 9.0 aces per match.
- Darderi last15 on clay: 4.9 aces per match.
- Combined average: 13.9 aces per match.
BetBugs · Total AcesOver 12.5Estimated chance60%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Faria's higher double-fault rate on clay (4.5 per match) makes it likely the combined total will exceed 6.5.
- Faria last15 on clay: 4.5 double faults per match.
- Darderi last15 on clay: 2.0 double faults per match.
- Combined average: 6.5 double faults per match.
BetBugs · Total Double FaultsOver 6.5Estimated chance55%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
With both players holding serve well and a history of tiebreaks in recent clay matches, there is a solid chance of at least one tiebreak.
- Faria last15 on clay: 3 of 8 matches featured a tiebreak.
- Darderi last15 on clay: 5 of 12 matches featured a tiebreak.
- Both players have career tiebreak win rates around 52-54%.
BetBugs · Tiebreak in MatchlostYesEstimated chance55%

Head-to-Head

1-1 (2 meetings)

W6-3 6-4Jaime Faria#88vLuciano Darderi#21Feb 25, 2025

L6-0 6-1Jaime Faria#88vLuciano Darderi#21Mar 27, 2022

2 total meetings

Jaime Faria

11W 4L

6-2 6-4#180Gonzalo Bueno

6-3 6-4#55Botic Van De Zandschulp

6-7(1) 6-4 6-2#13Casper Ruud

6-7(8) 6-4 6-4#118Stan Wawrinka

7-6(6) 4-6 6-2 6-3#34Zizou Bergs

7-6(6) 6-3 6-7(2) 6-3#97Sho Shimabukuro

7-6(3) 4-6 6-3 6-4#165Rei Sakamoto

6-4 6-4#278Luka Pavlovic

6-3 6-3#226Hugo Grenier

6-4 7-5#158Zhizhen Zhang

6-3 6-4#151Moez Echargui

4-6 6-7(2) 7-6(4) 6-1 6-2#17Frances Tiafoe

7-5 7-6(1) 6-2#41Jan-Lennard Struff

6-4 7-5 6-4#67Denis Shapovalov

6-3 7-6(9)#172Lukas Neumayer

Luciano Darderi

9W 6L

6-0 6-1#159Pedro Martinez Portero

6-4 6-3#14Andrey Rublev

6-4 6-7(11) 6-3#63Adolfo Daniel Vallejo

7-6(9) 6-4#48Nuno Borges

6-4 6-4#61Daniel Altmaier

7-6(7) 7-5 6-2#45Ethan Quinn

7-6(1) 6-4#48Nuno Borges

7-5 6-3#52Yannick Hanfmann

7-6(5) 4-6 6-4 2-6 6-4#101Francisco Comesana

7-6(5) 6-2 6-3#124Sebastian Ofner

6-0 6-3#5Alex De Minaur

7-6(7) 7-5#52Yannick Hanfmann

6-3 7-6(4)#60Roman Andres Burruchaga

6-1 6-1#13Casper Ruud

7-6(5) 5-7 6-0#25Rafael Jodar

Stat Battle

Last 15 match performance, compared side by side.

JFJaime FariaFaria

Last 15

5–2

9 core stats · 2 even

Luciano DarderiDarderiLD

Jaime Faria carries the stronger recent form — Luciano Darderi's route runs through serve.

Serve · 2–2 · 1 even

1st Serve In59.7%—59.0%

1st Serve Won78.3%+8.0pp70.3%

2nd Serve Won53.2%+0.9pp54.1%

Aces / Match10.0+4.45.6

Double Faults / Match4.92.6 fewer2.3

Return · 0–0 · 1 even

Return Pts Won35.5%—35.6%

Pressure · 2–0

Break Pts Converted40.2%+5.9pp34.3%

Break Pts Saved68.1%+2.1pp66.0%

Points · 1–0

Total Pts Won51.8%+1.6pp50.2%

Serve · 2–2 · 1 even

59.7%1st Serve In—59.0%

78.3%1st Serve Won+8.0pp70.3%

53.2%2nd Serve Won+0.9pp54.1%

10.0Aces / Match+4.45.6

4.9Double Faults / Match2.6 fewer2.3

Return · 0–0 · 1 even

35.5%Return Pts Won—35.6%

Pressure · 2–0

40.2%Break Pts Converted+5.9pp34.3%

68.1%Break Pts Saved+2.1pp66.0%

Points · 1–0

51.8%Total Pts Won+1.6pp50.2%

Jaime Faria #88Portugal1Luciano Darderi #21Italy2

Player Profiles

Jaime Faria

Luciano Darderi

Quick Take

Context

BetBugs edges

Over 9.5

Jaime Faria +3.5

Jaime Faria

Jaime Faria

Over 9.5

Luciano Darderi 2-0

BetBugs probabilities

Result0 of 1 landed

Games3 of 4 landed

Sets1 of 1 landed

Match stats0 of 1 landed

Head-to-Head

Jaime Faria

Luciano Darderi

Stat Battle