AustriaATP KitzbuhelFinished

Predictions graded

Yannick Hanfmann #52Germany2Sebastian Baez #56Argentina0

Sets 6-3 · 6-1Thu 23 Jul 2026, 10:45 Predictions gradedQuarter-FinalClay

Predictions0–80%

Edges0–40%

Player Profiles

Ranking advantageYannick Hanfmann · 4 places

Yannick Hanfmann

Germany

Career-high No. 45 came in July 2023. ATP's bio notes that he enjoys playing on all surfaces. He reached the Santiago final in March 2026.

Current ranking: #52
Peak ranking: #45
Current age: 34
Preferred surface: All surfaces
Hand: Right handed
Height: 193 cm

Sebastian Baez

Argentina

Career-high No. 18 came in June 2024. Six of his seven ATP Tour titles have come on clay, including Kitzbuhel in 2023.

Current ranking: #56
Peak ranking: #18
Current age: 25
Preferred surface: Clay
Hand: Right handed
Height: 170 cm

Quick Take

Pre-match view

Context last updated 23 Jul 2026, 09:13 · Europe/Bucharest

Baez's elite clay return game and Kitzbuhel pedigree give him a slight edge, but Hanfmann's fresh legs and big serve will make this a tight battle.

Expect a three-setter with over 22.5 total games and a tiebreak, offering the best betting value.

Context

Baez beat Kecmanovic 6-3 3-6 6-4 (1h49m) and Rinderknech 7-6 2-6 6-4 (2h27m) this week.
- Hanfmann beat Neumayer 7-6 6-4 and Trungelliti 6-4 7-6 in straight sets.
- Baez has played 4h16m of tennis in two days, Hanfmann 2h30m.
Hanfmann's last15 clay first-serve points won: 79.1% (261/330).
- He averages 10.1 aces per match on clay in that span.
- Baez's first-serve points won on clay is 66.9%, significantly lower.
Baez last15 clay return points won: 42.3% (459/1086).
- He converts 41.2% of break points on clay in that window.
- Hanfmann's second-serve points won on clay is 57.4%, a potential target.

BetBugs edges

Compare BetBugs' chances with the market's.

BetBugs probabilities

How likely BetBugs thought each outcome was.

Result0 of 1 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Market price 2.10
The read
Baez's superior clay return game and break conversion in the last 14 matches give him a structural edge, despite Hanfmann's lighter workload this week.
- Baez last15 clay record 10-4 (71.4%), Hanfmann 4-3 (57.1%)
- Baez return points won on clay 42.3% vs Hanfmann 32.7%
- Baez break point conversion 41.2% vs Hanfmann 34.1% on clay
- H2H 1-1, both on clay, most recent 2025 Hanfmann win in 3 sets
BetBugs · Match WinnerlostSebastian BaezEstimated chance58%

Games0 of 3 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Market price 1.75
The read
Both players have shown tight matches on clay recently, and their H2H history suggests a close contest likely to exceed 22 games.
- Both players' last15 clay matches average 22.5+ total games (Hanfmann 22.1, Baez 22.0)
- H2H matches went 25 and 28 games
- Hanfmann last15 clay tiebreak rate 28.6% (2 of 7 matches), Baez 21.4% (3 of 14)
BetBugs · Total GameslostOver 22.5Estimated chance62%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Market price 1.91
The read
Recent clay matches for both players average over 9.5 games in the first set, and their H2H suggests a tight opening set is likely.
- Hanfmann last15 clay first set average 9.7 games, Baez 9.4
- H2H first sets: 12 and 8 games
- Both players have strong first-set win conversion rates, indicating competitive starts
BetBugs · Set 1 Total GameslostOver 9.5Estimated chance60%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
With both players showing resilience, the second set is likely to be competitive and exceed 9.5 games, especially if Baez's workload leads to a closer set.
- Hanfmann last15 clay second set average 9.4 games, Baez 9.1
- Baez has played three-setters in both Kitzbuhel matches this week
- Hanfmann's straight-set wins this week had second sets of 10 and 10 games
BetBugs · Set 2 Total GameslostOver 9.5Estimated chance55%

Sets0 of 2 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Market price 2.00
The read
Baez's recent clay matches often go the distance, and both H2H encounters were three-setters, making a deciding set likely.
- Baez last15 clay deciding set rate 35.7% (5 of 14 matches)
- Hanfmann last15 clay deciding set rate 28.6% (2 of 7 matches)
- H2H both matches went to deciding sets
- Baez has played three-setters in both Kitzbuhel matches this week
BetBugs · Total SetslostOver 2.5Estimated chance58%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Baez's slightly better overall clay form and return edge may help him edge a tight first set, though Hanfmann's serve could keep it close.
- Baez first set win conversion career 86%, Hanfmann 85%
- Baez last15 clay total points won 51.9%, Hanfmann 50.4%
- Hanfmann first serve points won on clay 79.1% vs Baez 66.9%
BetBugs · Set 1 WinnerlostSebastian BaezEstimated chance55%

Match stats0 of 1 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Hanfmann's high ace rate on clay, combined with Baez's low ace count, should push the total comfortably over 12.5.
- Hanfmann last15 clay aces per match 10.1, Baez 1.9
- Hanfmann career aces 3261 in 722 matches (4.5 per match), higher on clay
- H2H Hanfmann had 12 aces in 2 matches, Baez 3
BetBugs · Total AcesOver 12.5Estimated chance65%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Both players average under 2.5 double faults per match on clay recently, making under 5.5 the likely outcome.
- Hanfmann last15 clay double faults per match 2.4, Baez 2.2
- Combined average 4.6 double faults per match
- H2H Hanfmann 3 double faults in 2 matches, Baez 9
BetBugs · Total Double FaultsUnder 5.5Estimated chance60%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Hanfmann's serve and recent tiebreak history in Kitzbuhel, combined with Baez's competitive sets, make a tiebreak likely.
- Hanfmann last15 clay tiebreak rate 28.6% (2 of 7 matches), Baez 21.4% (3 of 14)
- H2H both matches featured tiebreaks (2 in 2022, 0 in 2025)
- Hanfmann's recent Kitzbuhel matches both had tiebreaks
BetBugs · Tiebreak in MatchlostYesEstimated chance55%

Head-to-Head

1-1 (2 meetings)

W5-7 6-3 7-5Yannick Hanfmann#52vSebastian Baez#56Jul 23, 2025

L2-6 7-6(2) 7-6(2)Yannick Hanfmann#52vSebastian Baez#56Feb 13, 2022

2 total meetings

Yannick Hanfmann

8W 7L

6-4 7-6(2)#95Marco Trungelliti

7-6(5) 6-4#172Lukas Neumayer

4-6 6-3 6-4#19Valentin Vacherot

7-6(6) 6-1#159Pedro Martinez Portero

6-3 6-4 6-4#26Karen Khachanov

6-7(6) 7-6(9) 6-2 6-3#89Giovanni Mpetshi Perricard

7-5 6-3#21Luciano Darderi

7-6(2) 7-6(2)#63Adolfo Daniel Vallejo

6-3 7-6(4)#2Alexander Zverev

6-2 6-2#28Joao Fonseca

7-5 6-7(4) 6-2#79Mattia Bellucci

7-6(5) 7-6(4)#93Aleksandar Kovacevic

6-3 6-4 6-7(1) 6-4#72Hamad Medjedovic

7-6(7) 7-5#21Luciano Darderi

6-3 6-7(4) 6-4#311Max Schoenhaus

Sebastian Baez

10W 5L

7-6(6) 2-6 6-4#27Arthur Rinderknech

6-3 3-6 6-4#58Miomir Kecmanovic

6-1 6-2#14Andrey Rublev

6-4 6-2#98Jesper De Jong

4-6 6-4 6-1#883Max Dahlin

6-1 7-6(4) 4-6 2-6 7-5#41Jan-Lennard Struff

6-4 6-2#81Alex Molcan

6-2 7-6(2)#214Nikolas Sanchez-Izquierdo

6-4 7-5#303Maxim Mrva

6-2 6-4#166Tristan Boyer

6-4 6-3#268Sascha Gueymard Wayenburg

2-6 7-5 6-2 2-0 ret.#60Roman Andres Burruchaga

7-5 6-3#44Alex Michelsen

5-7 7-5 7-5#65Pablo Carreno-Busta

6-4 6-2#177Roberto Carballes Baena

Stat Battle

Last 15 match performance, compared side by side.

YHYannick HanfmannHanfmann

Last 15

4–5

9 core stats · 0 even

Sebastian BaezBaezSB

Sebastian Baez carries the stronger recent form — Yannick Hanfmann's route runs through serve.

Serve · 3–2

1st Serve In61.4%+7.4pp68.8%

1st Serve Won81.0%+13.4pp67.6%

2nd Serve Won54.2%+1.7pp52.5%

Aces / Match10.5+8.52.0

Double Faults / Match2.50.3 fewer2.2

Return · 0–1

Return Pts Won32.5%+8.5pp41.0%

Pressure · 1–1

Break Pts Converted26.3%+14.5pp40.8%

Break Pts Saved64.6%+3.3pp61.3%

Points · 0–1

Total Pts Won50.3%+1.2pp51.5%

Serve · 3–2

61.4%1st Serve In+7.4pp68.8%

81.0%1st Serve Won+13.4pp67.6%

54.2%2nd Serve Won+1.7pp52.5%

10.5Aces / Match+8.52.0

2.5Double Faults / Match0.3 fewer2.2

Return · 0–1

32.5%Return Pts Won+8.5pp41.0%

Pressure · 1–1

26.3%Break Pts Converted+14.5pp40.8%

64.6%Break Pts Saved+3.3pp61.3%

Points · 0–1

50.3%Total Pts Won+1.2pp51.5%