Max Alcala Gurri #181Spain00 – 2Dylan Dietrich #556Switzerland2

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Market price 1.85

The read

Alcala Gurri's superior return game and recent dominance on clay give him a slight edge, though Dietrich's home wildcard momentum and upset of Barrios Vera keep it close.

• Alcala Gurri has a 12-3 record in his last 15 matches on clay, winning 61.1% of games and 55.2% of total points.
• Dietrich is 11-4 in his last 15 on clay, but his return points won (41.5%) and break conversion (41.4%) are lower than Alcala Gurri's (48.1% and 49%).
• Alcala Gurri holds a 50-13 clay record in 2026, while Dietrich is 16-4, but Alcala Gurri has faced stronger opposition (avg opponent rank ~350 vs ~400).
• No H2H data available.

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced

The read

Both players have shown a pattern of competitive, extended matches on clay, making over 21.5 games likely given their recent three-set frequency.

• Alcala Gurri's last 15 matches average 21.1 total games, with 8 of 15 going over 21.5.
• Dietrich's last 15 matches average 23.0 total games, with 10 of 15 going over 21.5.
• Both players have been involved in multiple three-setters recently (Alcala Gurri 5, Dietrich 6 in last 15).
• Combined average games per match in their recent clay matches is 22.0.

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Market price 1.91

The read

Both players tend to start matches with tight opening sets, and their recent first-set game counts support a relatively high total.

• Alcala Gurri's last 15 first sets average 9.7 games, with 9 of 15 going over 9.5.
• Dietrich's last 15 first sets average 10.1 games, with 10 of 15 going over 9.5.
• In their last 5 matches each, both have seen first sets averaging over 10 games.

Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced

The read

While second sets can be more one-sided, the overall trend and the likelihood of a competitive match support a modest lean toward over 9.5 games.

• Alcala Gurri's last 15 second sets average 9.3 games, with 7 of 15 going over 9.5.
• Dietrich's last 15 second sets average 9.7 games, with 8 of 15 going over 9.5.
• Second sets in their recent matches have been slightly less competitive than first sets, but still often exceed 9.5.

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced

The read

The high frequency of three-set matches for both players on clay, along with their competitive recent form, makes a deciding set more likely than not.

• Alcala Gurri has played 5 three-setters in his last 15 matches (33%).
• Dietrich has played 6 three-setters in his last 15 matches (40%).
• Combined, 11 of their 30 recent matches (37%) have gone to a deciding set.
• Both players have shown resilience and the ability to come back, with Dietrich's deciding set win rate at 56% and Alcala Gurri's at 49%.

Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced

The read

Alcala Gurri's tendency to start fast and his high first-set win rate suggest he is slightly more likely to take the opener, though Dietrich's recent form makes it a low-confidence call.

• Alcala Gurri has won the first set in 12 of his last 15 matches (80% first-set win rate).
• Dietrich has won the first set in 9 of his last 15 matches (60%), but lost it in his last two matches against top-200 opponents.
• Alcala Gurri's first-set win conversion rate for his career is 87%, indicating strong front-running.

Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced

The read

The frequency of tiebreaks in their recent matches is notable, but not high enough to push the probability above 50% with confidence.

• Alcala Gurri has played 4 tiebreaks in his last 15 matches (27% of matches).
• Dietrich has played 7 tiebreaks in his last 15 matches (47% of matches).
• Combined, 11 of their 30 recent matches (37%) featured at least one tiebreak.
• Both players have average tiebreak win rates around 50%.