PortugalATP EstorilFinished

Predictions graded

Jaime Faria #88Portugal2Gonzalo Bueno #180Peru0

Sets 6-2 · 6-4Thu 23 Jul 2026, 13:30 Predictions gradedSecond RoundClay

Predictions2–625%

Edges2–433%

Player Profiles

Ranking advantageJaime Faria · 92 places

Jaime Faria

Portugal

ATP's bio, updated 2026-05-23, lists clay as his favourite surface and cites a career peak of No. 87 in February 2025. With the supplied current ranking at No. 88, the retrieved sources show him still operating near that peak rather than in a clearly sourced decline.

Current ranking: #88
Peak ranking: #87
Current age: —
Preferred surface: Clay
Hand: Right handed
Height: 188 cm

Gonzalo Bueno

Peru

Bueno reached a career-high No. 175 on 2026-06-22 and lists clay as his favorite surface. ATP's bio highlights his first Challenger title in Buenos Aires in January 2024.

Current ranking: #180
Peak ranking: #175 · 2026
Current age: 22
Preferred surface: Clay
Hand: Right handed
Height: 173 cm

Quick Take

Pre-match view

Context last updated 22 Jul 2026, 09:05 · Europe/Bucharest

Faria's superior serve and recent form make him a strong favorite, but Bueno's fighting qualities and three-set pedigree suggest a competitive match.

Back over 19.5 games and Bueno +5.5 games for value, with a small play on Faria 2-1 at attractive odds.

Context

Bueno played qualifying matches on July 18, 19, and 21, winning all three in a combined 7 sets.
- His last two qualifying wins went to three sets, including a 7-6(5) decider on July 21.
- No reported injury, but the short recovery window before the round of 16 is a physical test.
Faria's last 8 clay matches: 75.2% first-serve points won, 53% second-serve points won.
- Bueno's last 14 clay matches: 62.4% first-serve points won, 52.6% second-serve points won.
- Faria saved 69.4% of break points on clay in that span, limiting opponent chances.
Bueno's last 14 clay matches: 40.8% return points won, 35.9% break points converted.
- Faria's second-serve points won on clay is 53%, a potential target for Bueno.
- Bueno has forced at least one break in 12 of his last 14 clay matches.

BetBugs edges

Compare BetBugs' chances with the market's.

Positive edges · 4

BetBugs probabilities

How likely BetBugs thought each outcome was.

Result1 of 1 landed

Signal quality High · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Market price 1.15
The read
Faria's superior recent form (73% win rate vs 47%), stronger serve metrics, and home-court advantage on clay give him a clear edge, despite Bueno's slightly better return numbers.
- Faria's last15 overall record: 11-4 (73.3%), clay-specific 6-2 (75%) with 53.7% games won on clay.
- Bueno's last15 overall record: 7-8 (46.7%), clay-specific 7-7 (50%) with 48.6% games won on clay.
- Faria's last15 serve: 77.3% first-serve points won, 53.8% second-serve points won; Bueno's: 62.3% and 52.6%.
- Faria's last15 return points won: 35.6% overall, 37.4% on clay; Bueno's: 40.2% overall, 40.8% on clay.
BetBugs · Match WinnerwonJaime FariaEstimated chance72%

Games0 of 3 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
With both players showing a tendency for close, extended matches and Bueno's fighting qualities, this match is likely to exceed 21.5 games.
- Faria's last15 matches average 22.1 total games; clay matches average 22.3.
- Bueno's last15 matches average 22.9 total games; clay matches average 22.5.
- Both players have a high percentage of three-set matches recently: Faria 5 of last 15, Bueno 6 of last 15.
BetBugs · Total GameslostOver 21.5Estimated chance65%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Bueno's competitive recent matches, even in losses, suggest he will keep the match close enough to stay within 3.5 games of Faria.
- Faria's last15 average games won per match: 16.1; Bueno's: 11.0.
- Bueno's last15 clay matches: 10.9 games won per match; Faria's: 16.5.
- Bueno has covered a +3.5 game handicap in 10 of his last 15 matches.
BetBugs · Game HandicaplostGonzalo Bueno +3.5Estimated chance60%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Market price 1.83
The read
The first set is expected to be competitive, with both players holding serve well enough to push the total over 9.5 games.
- Faria's last15 set1 average games: 9.7; Bueno's: 9.5.
- Faria's last15 clay set1 average: 9.8; Bueno's: 9.6.
- Both players have a high first-set win conversion, suggesting tight opening sets.
BetBugs · Set 1 Total GameslostOver 9.5Estimated chance60%

Sets1 of 2 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Market price 1.25
The read
Faria's strong serving and break-point saving in recent matches should allow him to start fast and secure the opening set against a less consistent Bueno.
- Faria's career first-set win conversion: 87%; Bueno's: 85%.
- Faria's last15 first-serve points won: 77.3%; Bueno's: 62.3%.
- Faria's last15 break points saved: 70.6%; Bueno's: 54.4%.
BetBugs · Set 1 WinnerwonJaime FariaEstimated chance68%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Given Bueno's recent pattern of three-set battles and Faria's occasional dips, a deciding set is more likely than not.
- Faria's last15: 5 of 15 matches went to three sets (33%).
- Bueno's last15: 6 of 15 matches went to three sets (40%).
- Bueno's Estoril run: 2 of 3 matches went to three sets.
BetBugs · Total SetslostOver 2.5Estimated chance55%

Match stats0 of 1 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Faria's high ace count alone pushes the total over 8.5, even with Bueno's low ace numbers.
- Faria's last15 aces per match: 10.0 overall, 9.0 on clay.
- Bueno's last15 aces per match: 1.4 overall, 1.1 on clay.
- Combined average aces per match: 11.4 overall, 10.1 on clay.
BetBugs · Total AcesOver 8.5Estimated chance62%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
With both players showing a moderate frequency of tiebreaks and closely matched tiebreak abilities, at least one tiebreak is likely.
- Faria's last15: 7 of 15 matches featured at least one tiebreak (47%).
- Bueno's last15: 5 of 15 matches featured at least one tiebreak (33%).
- Faria's career tiebreak win rate: 52%; Bueno's: 53%.
BetBugs · Tiebreak in MatchlostYesEstimated chance58%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Both players average enough double faults to push the combined total over 6.5, especially in a potentially tight match.
- Faria's last15 double faults per match: 4.9 overall, 4.4 on clay.
- Bueno's last15 double faults per match: 2.9 overall, 2.8 on clay.
- Combined average double faults per match: 7.8 overall, 7.2 on clay.
BetBugs · Total Double FaultsOver 6.5Estimated chance55%

Markets to Avoid

High-risk markets where price or context leaves too little cushion.

Pre-match flagged 3 avoid-market areas; caution remains warranted in high-variance spots.

Jaime Faria

11W 4L

6-3 6-4#55Botic Van De Zandschulp

6-7(1) 6-4 6-2#13Casper Ruud

6-7(8) 6-4 6-4#118Stan Wawrinka

7-6(6) 4-6 6-2 6-3#34Zizou Bergs

7-6(6) 6-3 6-7(2) 6-3#97Sho Shimabukuro

7-6(3) 4-6 6-3 6-4#165Rei Sakamoto

6-4 6-4#278Luka Pavlovic

6-3 6-3#226Hugo Grenier

6-4 7-5#158Zhizhen Zhang

6-3 6-4#151Moez Echargui

4-6 6-7(2) 7-6(4) 6-1 6-2#17Frances Tiafoe

7-5 7-6(1) 6-2#41Jan-Lennard Struff

6-4 7-5 6-4#67Denis Shapovalov

6-3 7-6(9)#172Lukas Neumayer

6-1 3-6 6-3#174Colton Smith

Gonzalo Bueno

7W 8L

6-3 1-6 7-6(5)#371Tiago Pereira

6-3 5-7 6-4#138Andrea Pellegrino

6-4 6-4#834Francisco Rocha

6-4 7-6(5)#318Igor Ribeiro Marcondes

6-1 6-2#221Laslo Djere

4-6 7-5 6-1#198Jerome Kym

6-2 6-3#115Dalibor Svrcina

6-4 6-3#235Frederico Ferreira Silva

7-6(4) 6-3#595Tomasz Berkieta

7-5 4-6 7-6(2)#376Francesco Forti

6-4 6-1#152Dusan Lajovic

7-6(2) 6-3#358Tommaso Compagnucci

5-7 6-1 6-3#127Toby Samuel

6-2 6-4#195Vitaliy Sachko

6-0 7-6(2)#250Florent Bax

Stat Battle

Last 15 match performance, compared side by side.

JFJaime FariaFaria

Last 15

6–3

9 core stats · 0 even

Gonzalo BuenoBuenoGB

Jaime Faria carries the stronger recent form — Gonzalo Bueno's route runs through serve.

Serve · 3–2

1st Serve In60.0%+3.8pp63.8%

1st Serve Won77.3%+15.0pp62.3%

2nd Serve Won53.8%+1.2pp52.6%

Aces / Match10.0+8.61.4

Double Faults / Match4.92.0 fewer2.9

Return · 0–1

Return Pts Won35.6%+4.6pp40.2%

Pressure · 2–0

Break Pts Converted37.5%+1.7pp35.8%

Break Pts Saved70.6%+16.2pp54.4%

Points · 1–0

Total Pts Won51.7%+2.4pp49.3%

Serve · 3–2

60.0%1st Serve In+3.8pp63.8%

77.3%1st Serve Won+15.0pp62.3%

53.8%2nd Serve Won+1.2pp52.6%

10.0Aces / Match+8.61.4

4.9Double Faults / Match2.0 fewer2.9

Return · 0–1

35.6%Return Pts Won+4.6pp40.2%

Pressure · 2–0

37.5%Break Pts Converted+1.7pp35.8%

70.6%Break Pts Saved+16.2pp54.4%

Points · 1–0

51.7%Total Pts Won+2.4pp49.3%

Jaime Faria #88Portugal2Gonzalo Bueno #180Peru0

Player Profiles

Jaime Faria

Gonzalo Bueno

Quick Take

Context

BetBugs edges

Over 19.5

Over 9.5

Gonzalo Bueno +5.5

Jaime Faria 2-1

Jaime Faria

Jaime Faria

BetBugs probabilities

Result1 of 1 landed

Games0 of 3 landed

Sets1 of 2 landed

Match stats0 of 1 landed

Markets to Avoid

Gonzalo Bueno @ 5.25

Gonzalo Bueno 2-1 @ 10.00

Jaime Faria

Gonzalo Bueno

Stat Battle