Jacob Fearnley #121United Kingdom22 – 0Tristan Boyer #166United States0

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Market price 1.44

The read

Fearnley's superior recent form (12-3 vs 10-5), H2H win, and better return stats give him a clear edge on hard court, though Boyer's strong break point saving (68.2%) keeps it competitive.

• Fearnley won the only H2H meeting 6-2 6-4 on hard court in March 2025, dominating first-serve points (86% won) and converting 67% of break chances.
• Fearnley's last 15 overall record is 12-3 (80%), with 54.4% games won and 52% total points won, while Boyer is 10-5 (66.7%) with 53.9% games won and 51.8% total points won.
• On hard courts this year, Fearnley is 5-8 but his only recent hard match in the last 15 was a straight-set win; Boyer is 3-3 on hard in 2026 but his only recent hard match was a retirement win over Tomic (1-3 ret.).
• Fearnley's return points won in the last 15 is 41.9% vs Boyer's 39.7%, and Fearnley's break point conversion is 42.9% vs Boyer's 41.3%.

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Market price 1.91

The read

With both players showing solid serving and competitive first sets in recent matches, the first set is likely to be close and exceed 9.5 games.

• Fearnley's last 15 first sets average 9.7 games, with 10 of 15 going over 9.5 games.
• Boyer's last 15 first sets average 9.3 games (excluding the 4-game retirement), with 8 of 14 completed first sets going over 9.5 games.
• In the H2H, the first set had 8 games, but both players' recent form suggests tighter opening sets.
• Fearnley's first serve points won is 72.1% and Boyer's is 69.2%, indicating strong serving that can extend sets.

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Market price 1.91

The read

Strong serving and break point saving from both players suggest the second set will also be tight, likely going over 9.5 games.

• Fearnley's last 15 second sets average 9.5 games, with 8 of 15 going over 9.5 games.
• Boyer's last 15 second sets average 9.1 games (excluding retirements), with 7 of 14 completed second sets going over 9.5 games.
• Both players have break point save rates above 53% (Fearnley 53.5%, Boyer 68.2%), making breaks harder to come by.
• In the H2H, the second set had 10 games, aligning with the over.

Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced

The read

Fearnley's overall game dominance in recent matches and the H2H suggest he could cover a -1.5 game handicap, but Boyer's resilience and limited hard-court data make this a low-confidence pick.

• Fearnley's average games won per match in his last 15 is 15.3, while Boyer's is 12.1 (excluding the 4-game retirement), a difference of 3.2 games.
• In the H2H, Fearnley won 12 games to Boyer's 6, a 6-game margin.
• Fearnley's total points won percentage is 52% vs Boyer's 51.8%, a small edge that could translate to a game handicap cover.
• Boyer's break point saving is high (68.2%), which could keep the match closer than the averages suggest.

Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced

The read

Fearnley's higher first-set win rate and superior return stats give him a slight edge to take the opener, though Boyer's competitiveness keeps confidence low.

• Fearnley has won the first set in 10 of his last 15 matches (67%), while Boyer has won the first set in 8 of his last 15 (53%).
• Fearnley's first-set win conversion rate is 95% career, meaning when he wins the first set, he almost always wins the match.
• On hard courts, Fearnley won the first set 6-4 in his only recent match; Boyer's only recent hard match was a retirement after losing the first set 1-3.
• Fearnley's return points won (41.9%) is better than Boyer's (39.7%), giving him an edge in breaking early.

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced

The read

Fearnley's consistently high double fault count (6 per match) makes it very likely the combined total exceeds 7.5, even with Boyer's lower rate.

• Fearnley averages 6.0 double faults per match in his last 15, with 7 in his only recent hard-court match.
• Boyer averages only 2.2 double faults per match in his last 15, but his career average is higher, and he had 2 in his 4-game hard-court match.
• Fearnley's high double fault rate (6 per match) alone pushes the combined total near 8, and Boyer's career double fault rate (649 in 313 matches, ~2.1 per match) adds to it.
• In the H2H, Fearnley had 6 double faults, and Boyer's double faults were not recorded but likely contributed.