Henri Squire vs Franco Roncadelli: result, stats and head-to-head

Result1 of 1 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Market price 1.70
The read
Squire's superior serve and recent quality wins give him a slight edge, though Roncadelli's return strength keeps it close.
- Squire's last 15 clay record: 8-6 (57.1%), Roncadelli's: 8-6 (57.1%) – identical win rates.
- Squire holds a significant serve edge: 4.9 aces per match vs 0.2, and 68.8% first-serve points won vs 59.0%.
- Roncadelli has a return advantage: 42.3% return points won vs 37.1%, and 50.4% break point conversion vs 33.3%.
- Squire's recent form includes wins over higher-ranked opponents (e.g., #172 Neumayer, #200 Passaro), while Roncadelli's wins are against lower-ranked players.
BetBugs · Match WinnerwonHenri SquireEstimated chance55%

Games0 of 4 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
With both players evenly matched and prone to tight sets, the match is likely to exceed 21.5 games.
- Squire's last 15 clay matches averaged 21.9 total games; Roncadelli's averaged 23.4.
- Both players have a high rate of three-set matches: Squire 5 of 14 clay matches went to deciding set, Roncadelli 6 of 14.
- Roncadelli's matches average 119.2 minutes, indicating longer, more competitive contests.
BetBugs · Total GameslostOver 21.5Estimated chance60%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Market price 1.91
The read
Both players tend to play tight opening sets, making over 9.5 games a solid expectation.
- Squire's last 15 first sets averaged 9.7 games; Roncadelli's averaged 9.5.
- In 10 of Squire's last 15 matches, the first set had 10+ games.
- Roncadelli's return ability often extends sets, even against strong servers.
BetBugs · Set 1 Total GameslostOver 9.5Estimated chance60%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Roncadelli's competitiveness and Squire's inconsistency suggest Roncadelli will cover a +3.5 game handicap.
- Squire's average game margin in wins is +4.2, but Roncadelli's losses are often close: 5 of his last 7 losses were by 5 games or fewer.
- Roncadelli's return game keeps him in matches; he won 50.3% of games on clay in last 15.
- Head-to-head is non-existent, but both have similar recent records against comparable opposition.
BetBugs · Game HandicaplostFranco Roncadelli +3.5Estimated chance60%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
With the match expected to be competitive, the second set is likely to be close, pushing over 9.5 games.
- Squire's second sets average 9.3 games, Roncadelli's 9.7 in last 15.
- In matches that go to a third set, the second set often sees extended games.
- Roncadelli's return pressure can force longer second sets even if Squire leads.
BetBugs · Set 2 Total GameslostOver 9.5Estimated chance55%

Sets1 of 1 landed

Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Squire's serve and slightly better first-set record in recent matches give him a marginal edge to start strong.
- Squire won the first set in 9 of his last 15 matches (60%), Roncadelli in 8 of 15 (53%).
- Squire's first-set win conversion rate is 87% career, indicating strong front-running ability.
- Roncadelli's first-set win conversion is 91%, but he faces a server who can dictate early.
BetBugs · Set 1 WinnerwonHenri SquireEstimated chance52%

Match stats0 of 1 landed

Signal quality High · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Squire's consistent ace output makes over 5.5 total aces highly probable, with Roncadelli contributing minimally.
- Squire averages 4.9 aces per match in last 15 overall, 4.9 on clay.
- Roncadelli averages only 0.2 aces per match, but Squire alone can cover the line.
- In 14 of his last 15 matches, Squire hit at least 3 aces; 10 matches had 5+ aces.
BetBugs · Total AcesOver 5.5Estimated chance75%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Squire's high double-fault rate makes over 6.5 likely, even with Roncadelli's low count.
- Squire averages 5.9 double faults per match in last 15, 5.8 on clay.
- Roncadelli averages only 0.7 double faults, but Squire's high rate alone pushes the total.
- In 12 of his last 15 matches, Squire committed at least 4 double faults; 8 matches had 6+.
BetBugs · Total Double FaultsOver 6.5Estimated chance65%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Given the competitive nature and recent tiebreak frequency, at least one tiebreak is more likely than not.
- Squire played a tiebreak in 6 of his last 15 matches (40%); Roncadelli in 5 of 15 (33%).
- Both players have a 50% career tiebreak win rate, indicating evenness in tight moments.
- Their recent matches often feature close sets: Squire's last match had a tiebreak, Roncadelli's last two had tiebreaks.
BetBugs · Tiebreak in MatchlostYesEstimated chance55%

The percentage shows our estimated chance. Tap a row for the context and share card.18+ · predictions, not guarantees

Henri Squire #218Germany2Franco Roncadelli #2280

Player Profiles

Henri Squire

Franco Roncadelli

Quick Take

Context

BetBugs edges

Over 9.5

Henri Squire 2-1

Henri Squire

BetBugs probabilities

Result1 of 1 landed

Games0 of 4 landed

Sets1 of 1 landed

Match stats0 of 1 landed

Henri Squire

Franco Roncadelli

Stat Battle