Kilian Feldbausch #284Switzerland11 – 2Ignacio Buse #35Peru2

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Market price 1.50

The read

Buse's higher ranking (35 vs 284) and recent wins over top-30 opponents on clay (Paul, Humbert, Mensik) indicate a level above Feldbausch's recent Challenger-heavy form, despite Feldbausch's strong last15 numbers.

• Buse last15 Clay: 77.8% win rate (7-2), 57.1% games won, 52.5% total points won over 9 matches.
• Feldbausch last15 Clay: 80% win rate (12-3), 60.4% games won, 55.1% total points won over 15 matches.
• Buse career clay win% 61.2% (142 wins), Feldbausch 61.6% (102 wins) – similar long-term.
• H2H: Buse won 6-3 7-6(2) on clay in 2025, with superior return points won (48% vs 38%).

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced

The read

Buse's recent clay matches against top opponents have been extended (e.g., 43 games vs Rublev), and Feldbausch's efficiency may be tested by Buse's return quality, likely pushing total games over 21.5.

• Feldbausch last15 Clay avg games per match: 19.2 (288 games / 15 matches).
• Buse last15 Clay avg games per match: 24.9 (224 games / 9 matches).
• Buse's last 5 clay matches: 19, 20, 43, 32, 25 games – high total games in competitive matches.
• Feldbausch's last 5 clay matches: 20, 16, 18, 23, 22 games – mostly straight-set wins.

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced

The read

Both players have low ace counts on clay, with Feldbausch averaging under 1 per match; even with Buse's slightly higher rate, total aces are unlikely to exceed 5.5.

• Feldbausch last15 aces per match: 0.8 (12 aces in 15 matches).
• Buse last15 aces per match: 2.7 (40 aces in 15 matches), but only 2.7 on clay (24 in 9 matches).
• Combined avg aces per match: 3.5 on clay last15.
• H2H: Buse 1 ace, Feldbausch unknown but low ace rate.

Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced

The read

Feldbausch's higher double fault rate (2.1 per match) and Buse's moderate rate combine to an average near 4, making over 3.5 likely in a competitive match.

• Feldbausch last15 double faults per match: 2.1 (32 in 15 matches).
• Buse last15 double faults per match: 1.8 (27 in 15 matches), 1.7 on clay.
• Combined avg double faults per match: 3.9 on clay last15.
• H2H: Feldbausch 5 double faults, Buse 1.