FinlandTampere - FinlandFinished

Predictions graded

Andrej Nedic #238Bosnia & Herzegovina1Tom Gentzsch #189Germany2

Sets 6-4 · 2-6 · 0-6Wed 22 Jul 2026, 10:45 Predictions gradedSecond RoundClay

Predictions4–357%

Edges1–233%

Player Profiles

Ranking advantageTom Gentzsch · 49 places

Andrej Nedic

Bosnia & Herzegovina

Nedic is 21 and is operating around a career-best ranking in July 2026. Public profile sources list him as right-handed, 185 cm, and hard court as his preferred surface.

Current ranking: #238
Peak ranking: #237 · 2026
Current age: 21
Preferred surface: Hard
Hand: Right handed
Height: 185 cm

Tom Gentzsch

Germany

Gentzsch is 22 and reached a career-high No. 189 on 20 Jul 2026. Public profile sources list him as right-handed, 191 cm, with hard court as his preferred surface, although much of his recent match volume has come on clay.

Current ranking: #189
Peak ranking: #189 · 2026
Current age: 22
Preferred surface: Hard
Hand: Right handed
Height: 191 cm

Quick Take

Pre-match view

Context last updated 21 Jul 2026, 22:35 · Europe/Bucharest

Andrej Nedic’s superior recent clay form, sharp first-set record, and fresher legs give him a clear edge over a fatigued Tom Gentzsch, who is coming off a heavy workload.

The best betting value lies in under 8.5 total aces and Nedic to win 2-1, while the double-faults over is too close to call.

Context

Gentzsch played five matches at Bunschoten from July 14–19, including a three-set semifinal and a final loss.
- He then played a three-set opener in Tampere on July 21, totaling six matches in eight days.
- His last three clay matches all went to three sets, adding physical strain.
Nedic won the first set in 10 of his last 15 matches, including a 6-1 set in his Tampere opener.
- His break point conversion rate on clay in the last 15 matches is 55.1% (59/107).
- Gentzsch's break point save rate on clay in his last 10 matches is 58.3%, but he faces a high volume of break points.
Gentzsch's second-serve points won on clay in his last 10 matches is 45.7%.
- He averages 4.5 double faults per match on clay in that span.
- Nedic wins 45% of return points on clay, above the tour average for this level.

BetBugs edges

Compare BetBugs' chances with the market's.

BetBugs probabilities

How likely BetBugs thought each outcome was.

Result0 of 1 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Market price 1.70
The read
Nedic's superior recent clay stats (higher win%, games%, points%) and Gentzsch's heavy pre-tournament workload give Nedic a clear edge in this Bo3 clay match.
- Nedic last 15 on clay: 66.7% win rate, 57.8% games won, 53.3% total points won (15 matches tracked).
- Gentzsch last 10 on clay: 60% win rate, 51% games won, 50.9% total points won; return points won only 37.6%.
- Nedic break point conversion 55.1% vs Gentzsch 36.6% on clay in recent window.
- Gentzsch played 5 matches in Bunschoten (14-19 Jul) before Tampere opener, heavy workload signal.
BetBugs · Match WinnerlostAndrej NedicEstimated chance62%

Games3 of 3 landed

Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Gentzsch's ability to keep matches close on clay, even in losses, makes +3.5 games a reasonable cover.
- Gentzsch lost by 3+ games in only 2 of last 10 clay matches.
- Nedic won by 3+ games in 6 of last 10 clay matches, but Gentzsch's tight matches suggest cover.
- Gentzsch's last 3 clay losses: by 6, 4, and 4 games; but recent form shows resilience.
BetBugs · Game HandicapwonTom Gentzsch +3.5Estimated chance58%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Gentzsch's clay matches tend to be longer (higher game counts), and his recent three-setters push the total over 21.5.
- Nedic last 15 clay matches: average 20.1 games per match, but 7 of 15 went over 21.5 games.
- Gentzsch last 10 clay matches: average 24.7 games per match, 7 of 10 over 21.5.
- Gentzsch's last 3 clay matches all exceeded 21.5 games (35, 22, 22).
BetBugs · Total GameswonOver 21.5Estimated chance55%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Gentzsch's competitive first sets on clay often exceed 9.5 games, even if Nedic starts fast.
- Gentzsch's last 5 clay first sets: 7-6, 4-6, 6-4, 6-3, 6-7 (avg 10.2 games).
- Nedic's last 5 clay first sets: 6-1, 3-6, 4-6, 1-6, 6-3 (avg 8.2 games).
- Gentzsch's first sets tend to be tighter, pushing total over 9.5.
BetBugs · Set 1 Total GameswonOver 9.5Estimated chance55%

Sets1 of 1 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Market price 1.73
The read
Nedic's strong first-set record and Gentzsch's recent slow starts on clay support Nedic taking the opening set.
- Nedic first set win conversion career: 89%; won first set in 10 of last 15 matches.
- Gentzsch lost first set in 3 of last 5 clay matches, including opener vs Blanch.
- Nedic won first set 6-1 vs Nagal yesterday, showing sharp start.
BetBugs · Set 1 WinnerwonAndrej NedicEstimated chance60%

Match stats0 of 1 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Market price 1.85
The read
Both players have modest ace counts on clay, with combined average well below 8.5, making the under likely.
- Nedic last 15: 1.5 aces per match; Gentzsch last 10 on clay: 5.4 aces per match.
- Combined average ~6.9 aces per match on clay in recent windows.
- Gentzsch's ace rate drops significantly on clay vs grass (5.4 vs 11.0).
BetBugs · Total AcesUnder 8.5Market price1.85Estimated chance65%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Gentzsch's elevated double fault rate on clay pushes the combined total over 5.5, despite Nedic's low count.
- Gentzsch last 10 on clay: 4.5 double faults per match; Nedic 1.2 per match.
- Combined average 5.7 double faults per match on clay.
- Gentzsch's high double fault rate (career 1277 in 379 matches) persists on clay.
BetBugs · Total Double FaultsOver 5.5Estimated chance55%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
Recent tiebreak frequency for both players and competitive match dynamics suggest a tiebreak is a coin-flip possibility.
- Nedic tiebreak win% career 50%, played tiebreaks in 3 of last 15 matches.
- Gentzsch tiebreak win% career 61%, played tiebreaks in 4 of last 10 clay matches.
- Both players had tiebreaks in their Tampere openers.
BetBugs · Tiebreak in MatchlostYesEstimated chance50%

Andrej Nedic

10W 5L

6-1 7-6(2)#230Sumit Nagal

6-3 6-4#325Enrico Dalla Valle

6-4 6-3#172Lukas Neumayer

6-1 7-6(3)#209Keegan Smith

6-3 6-4#228Franco Roncadelli

6-2 6-0#211Harold Mayot

7-6(5) 7-5#246Felix Balshaw

6-2 6-4#181Max Alcala Gurri

6-7(4) 6-3 7-5#531Sebastian Gima

6-1 6-2#573Alan Fernando Rubio Fierros

7-5 6-7(5) 6-1#657Nikita Mashtakov

6-3 6-2#353Andrey Chepelev

7-6(4) 6-3#481Sebastian Sorger

6-1 6-0—Jakub Vrba

6-0 6-2—Vid Mohar

Tom Gentzsch

8W 7L

6-7(3) 7-5 6-4#305Dali Blanch

6-4 4-6 6-0#193Guy Den Ouden

7-5 6-4#509Jan Kumstat

3-6 7-6(4) 6-4#241Max Houkes

6-3 6-2#649Pieter De Lange

7-5 6-4#434Mika Petkovic

6-4 6-4#206Daniel Rincon

7-5 6-2#257Max Basing

6-3 6-3#154Zdenek Kolar

7-5 6-4#62Martin Landaluce

7-5 7-6(5)#371Tiago Pereira

6-7(7) 7-6(2) 6-3#96Rinky Hijikata

6-4 6-4#90Jan Choinski

6-3 6-7(2) 6-4#94Roman Safiullin

7-6(2) 6-2#131Nicolai Budkov Kjaer

Stat Battle

Last 15 match performance, compared side by side.

ANAndrej NedicNedic

Last 15

7–2

9 core stats · 0 even

Tom GentzschGentzschTG

Andrej Nedic carries the stronger recent form — Tom Gentzsch's route runs through serve.

Serve · 3–2

1st Serve In68.9%+5.2pp63.7%

1st Serve Won63.8%+12.4pp76.2%

2nd Serve Won56.3%+13.7pp42.6%

Aces / Match1.5+5.87.3

Double Faults / Match1.22.6 fewer3.8

Return · 1–0

Return Pts Won45.0%+8.4pp36.6%

Pressure · 2–0

Break Pts Converted55.1%+16.2pp38.9%

Break Pts Saved61.1%+6.3pp54.8%

Points · 1–0

Total Pts Won53.3%+3.1pp50.2%

Serve · 3–2

68.9%1st Serve In+5.2pp63.7%

63.8%1st Serve Won+12.4pp76.2%

56.3%2nd Serve Won+13.7pp42.6%

1.5Aces / Match+5.87.3

1.2Double Faults / Match2.6 fewer3.8

Return · 1–0

45.0%Return Pts Won+8.4pp36.6%

Pressure · 2–0

55.1%Break Pts Converted+16.2pp38.9%

61.1%Break Pts Saved+6.3pp54.8%

Points · 1–0

53.3%Total Pts Won+3.1pp50.2%