SpainSegovia - SpainFinished

Predictions graded

Yanki Erel #341Türkiye2Sergey Fomin #297Uzbekistan1

Sets 6-2 · 3-6 · 7-6Tue 21 Jul 2026, 11:00 Predictions gradedFirst RoundHard

Predictions4–544%

Edges2–250%

Player Profiles

Ranking advantageSergey Fomin · 44 places

Yanki Erel

Türkiye

ATP lists him as a Turkish left-hander with a two-handed backhand. Public long-run Matchstat splits are stronger on hard and indoor hard than on clay. Exact-query profile data was thin on birth date and career-high history.

Current ranking: #341
Peak ranking: —
Current age: —
Preferred surface: Hard
Hand: Left handed
Height: 178 cm

Sergey Fomin

Uzbekistan

ATP lists him as an Uzbek right-hander with a two-handed backhand. Public long-run Matchstat splits lean slightly better on clay than on hard. Exact-query profile data was thin on birth date and career-high history.

Current ranking: #297
Peak ranking: —
Current age: —
Preferred surface: Clay
Hand: Right handed
Height: 180 cm

Quick Take

Pre-match view

Context last updated 19 Jul 2026, 17:00 · Europe/Bucharest

Yanki Erel's superior hard-court form and recent match rhythm give him a clear edge over Sergey Fomin, who lacks competitive reps and has a vulnerable break-point save rate.

The best betting angle is Erel to win 2-0 at 1.90, offering a 15.4-point edge over the implied probability, while the match-winner market at 1.40 provides only marginal value.

Context

Erel won three matches at M25 Roda de Bara (July 8-11) and then beat Luka Pavlovic at Pozoblanco (July 14) before losing to Alejo Sanchez Quilez (July 15).
- His last-15 hard-court record is 12-2, with a 63.3% games-won rate and 49.5% return points won.
- Eight of his last ten completed hard-court wins came in straight sets, averaging just 18.5 total games.
Fomin's last singles outing was a three-set clay loss on July 6; his previous hard-court match was a 6-3, 6-4 defeat to Cyril Vandermeersch (ranked 410) on May 17.
- In his last-15 sample, only four matches are on hard courts, with a 3-1 record but against lower-ranked opponents.
- His hard-court break-point save rate in that small sample is just 28.6%, a vulnerability against Erel's 53% break-point conversion.
Erel's last-15 hard-court return-points-won rate is 49.5%, well above the tour average.
- Fomin's second-serve points won on hard courts is 56.9% over four matches, leaving him vulnerable if his first serve dips.
- Fomin saved only 2 of 7 break points on hard courts in that sample, while Erel converted 62 of 117 break chances.

BetBugs edges

Compare BetBugs' chances with the market's.

Positive edges · 3

BetBugs probabilities

How likely BetBugs thought each outcome was.

Result1 of 1 landed

Signal quality High · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Market price 1.40
The read
Erel's dominant recent hard-court form (12-2 in last 14) and superior return game give him a clear edge over Fomin, whose hard-court sample is too small to trust.
- Erel's last-15 overall record: 12-3 (80%), Fomin: 8-7 (53.3%)
- Erel's last-15 hard-court record: 12-2 (85.7%), Fomin: 3-1 (75%) but only 4 matches
- Erel's last-15 games-won% on hard: 63.3%, Fomin: 63.2% (small sample)
- Erel's last-15 return-points-won% on hard: 49.5%, Fomin: 46.3%
BetBugs · Match WinnerwonYanki ErelEstimated chance72%

Games2 of 4 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Erel's consistent ability to win by comfortable margins on hard courts, especially against lower-ranked opponents, supports a -3.5 handicap.
- Erel's last-15 hard-court average game margin: +4.5 (164-95 in 14 matches)
- Fomin's last-4 hard-court average game margin: +2.5 (43-25 in 4 matches)
- Erel's last-5 matches: game margins of -6, +5, +10, +10, +4
- Erel's last-15 return-points-won% on hard: 49.5%
BetBugs · Game HandicaplostYanki Erel -3.5Estimated chance65%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Both players have seen low total games in recent hard-court matches, and Erel's dominant form suggests a straight-sets win with few games.
- Erel's last-15 hard-court matches: average total games 18.5 (164 games in 14 matches)
- Fomin's last-4 hard-court matches: average total games 17 (68 games in 4 matches)
- Erel's last-5 matches: total games 20, 21, 14, 14, 20 (avg 17.8)
- H2H (2024 hard): match ended 5-4 ret., only 9 games played
BetBugs · Total GameslostUnder 21.5Estimated chance62%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Erel's ability to break and Fomin's tendency to fade in second sets on hard courts point to a short second set, but Fomin's small sample adds uncertainty.
- Erel's last-5 second-set scores: 2-6, 6-2, 6-2, 6-1, 6-4 (avg 8.2 games)
- Fomin's last-5 second-set scores: 4-6, 4-6, 7-6, 1-6, 2-6 (avg 8.4 games)
- Erel's last-15 hard-court second-serve-points-won%: 51.4%, Fomin: 56.9% (4 matches)
- Erel's last-15 hard-court break-point-converted%: 53%
BetBugs · Set 2 Total GameswonUnder 9.5Estimated chance58%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
With both players strong on serve early, a quick first set is plausible, but the evidence is mixed, so confidence is low.
- Erel's last-5 first-set scores: 4-6, 7-6, 6-0, 6-1, 6-4 (avg 9.4 games)
- Fomin's last-5 first-set scores: 3-6, 6-3, 6-3, 6-7, 4-6 (avg 9.4 games)
- Erel's last-15 hard-court first-serve-points-won%: 71.6%, Fomin: 80.2% (4 matches)
- Both players have high first-set win conversion (86%)
BetBugs · Set 1 Total GameswonUnder 9.5Estimated chance55%

Sets1 of 3 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Market price 1.45
The read
Erel's strong start in recent matches and high first-set conversion rate, combined with Fomin's limited hard-court data, make Erel likely to take the opener.
- Erel's first-set win conversion career: 86%, Fomin: 86%
- Erel's last-15 first-serve-points-won% on hard: 71.6%, Fomin: 80.2% (4 matches)
- Erel's last-15 break-point-converted% on hard: 53%, Fomin: 51.7% (4 matches)
- Erel's last-5 matches: 4-1, all on hard, winning first set in 4 of 5
BetBugs · Set 1 WinnerwonYanki ErelEstimated chance68%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Erel's dominance in straight sets on hard courts and Fomin's lack of hard-court depth make a two-set match highly likely.
- Erel's last-15 hard-court matches: 12 straight-set wins, 2 three-set losses
- Fomin's last-4 hard-court matches: 3 straight-set wins, 1 straight-set loss
- Erel's last-15 sets-won% on hard: 83.3%
- H2H: only meeting ended in retirement after 9 games
BetBugs · Total SetslostUnder 2.5Estimated chance68%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Erel's consistency in closing out sets and Fomin's poor break-point saving on hard suggest Erel will also win the second set if the match stays competitive.
- Erel's last-15 second-serve-points-won% on hard: 51.4%, Fomin: 56.9% (4 matches)
- Erel's last-15 break-point-saved% on hard: 65.9%, Fomin: 28.6% (4 matches)
- Erel's last-15 games-won% on hard: 63.3%, Fomin: 63.2% (4 matches)
- Erel's last-5 matches: won second set in 4 of 5, all on hard
BetBugs · Set 2 WinnerlostYanki ErelEstimated chance65%

Match stats0 of 1 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Erel's strong serving and ability to break on hard courts reduce the likelihood of tiebreaks, and Fomin's hard-court data shows none recently.
- Erel's last-15 hard-court matches: tiebreaks in 2 of 14 (14.3%)
- Fomin's last-4 hard-court matches: no tiebreaks
- Erel's career tiebreak-win%: 48%, Fomin: 54%
- Erel's last-15 first-serve-points-won% on hard: 71.6%
BetBugs · Tiebreak in MatchlostNoEstimated chance70%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Both players have low double-fault rates on hard courts, suggesting under 5.5, but Fomin's small sample and potential pressure from Erel's return add risk.
- Erel's last-15 double-faults-per-match on hard: 2.4
- Fomin's last-15 double-faults-per-match on hard: 1.5 (4 matches)
- Combined average double faults: 3.9 per match
- Erel's career double faults: 911 in 403 matches (2.3 per match)
BetBugs · Total Double FaultsUnder 5.5Estimated chance55%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Fomin's high ace rate in his limited hard-court sample pushes the total over, but Erel's moderate ace count and Fomin's small sample make this a low-confidence pick.
- Erel's last-15 aces-per-match on hard: 3.6
- Fomin's last-15 aces-per-match on hard: 5.5 (4 matches)
- Combined average aces: 9.1 per match
- Fomin's career aces: 1400 in 451 matches (3.1 per match)
BetBugs · Total AcesOver 7.5Estimated chance52%

Head-to-Head

0-1 (1 meetings)

L5-4 ret.Yanki Erel#341vSergey Fomin#297Jul 17, 2024

1 total meetings

Yanki Erel

12W 3L

6-4 6-2#492Alejo Sanchez Quilez

7-6(6) 6-2#264Luka Pavlovic

6-0 6-2#235Oliver Crawford

6-1 6-1—Aren Baybars

6-4 6-4#645Iliyan Radulov

6-2 6-2—Gianluca Carlini

6-4 2-6 6-2—Noah Regas Luis

6-7(3) 6-3 7-6(4)#876Ryo Tabata

6-1 6-4#415Vadym Ursu

6-1 6-4#536Daniil Ostapenkov

6-2 6-4—Maksim Shin

6-2 6-2—Kevin Edengren

6-2 6-4—Ids Waterbolk

6-3 3-6 6-2#424Semen Pankin

6-2 6-4#653Matisse Bobichon

Sergey Fomin

8W 7L

6-3 4-6 6-4#381Manas Manoj Dhamne

3-6 6-4 6-1#368Olle Wallin

6-3 7-6(5)#900Mircea-Alexandru Jecan

7-6(6) 6-1#229Max Alcala Gurri

6-4 6-2#241Sumit Nagal

6-2 6-3#836Dragos Nicolae Cazacu

6-4 6-2#237Andrej Nedic

6-3 6-4#410Cyril Vandermeersch

6-4 6-2#475Alexandr Binda

6-4 6-0—Nika Bidzinashvili

6-2 6-1—Mikhail Kulyagin

6-2 6-0#409Max Hans Rehberg

6-3 7-6(5)#524Jelle Sels

6-3 7-5#163Timofey Skatov

4-6 6-1 6-4#237Andrej Nedic

Stat Battle

Last 15 match performance, compared side by side.

YEYanki ErelErel

Last 15

8–1

9 core stats · 0 even

Sergey FominFominSF

Yanki Erel carries the stronger recent form — Sergey Fomin's route runs through serve.

Serve · 4–1

1st Serve In64.5%+4.7pp59.8%

1st Serve Won71.3%+6.3pp65.0%

2nd Serve Won52.0%+2.0pp50.0%

Aces / Match3.5+1.14.6

Double Faults / Match2.31.2 fewer3.5

Return · 1–0

Return Pts Won46.7%+3.7pp43.0%

Pressure · 2–0

Break Pts Converted52.9%+8.2pp44.7%

Break Pts Saved66.7%+18.3pp48.4%

Points · 1–0

Total Pts Won55.5%+4.6pp50.9%

Serve · 4–1

64.5%1st Serve In+4.7pp59.8%

71.3%1st Serve Won+6.3pp65.0%

52.0%2nd Serve Won+2.0pp50.0%

3.5Aces / Match+1.14.6

2.3Double Faults / Match1.2 fewer3.5

Return · 1–0

46.7%Return Pts Won+3.7pp43.0%

Pressure · 2–0

52.9%Break Pts Converted+8.2pp44.7%

66.7%Break Pts Saved+18.3pp48.4%

Points · 1–0

55.5%Total Pts Won+4.6pp50.9%

Yanki Erel #341Türkiye2Sergey Fomin #297Uzbekistan1

Player Profiles

Yanki Erel

Sergey Fomin

Quick Take

Context

BetBugs edges

Yanki Erel

Yanki Erel 2-0

Yanki Erel 2-0

Yanki Erel

BetBugs probabilities

Result1 of 1 landed

Games2 of 4 landed

Sets1 of 3 landed

Match stats0 of 1 landed

Head-to-Head

Yanki Erel

Sergey Fomin

Stat Battle