PortugalATP EstorilFinished

Predictions graded

Timofey Skatov #172Kazakhstan2Jesper De Jong #73Netherlands1

Sets 1-6 · 6-4 · 6-3Tue 21 Jul 2026, 11:00 Predictions gradedFirst RoundClay

Predictions2–529%

Edges2–250%

Player Profiles

Ranking advantageJesper De Jong · 99 places

Timofey Skatov

Kazakhstan

Kazakhstan right-hander, age 25, with a documented career-high singles ranking of No. 123. This search set confirmed current clay-court activity in Estoril qualifying, but did not surface a reliable published preferred-surface label or career-high date.

Current ranking: #172
Peak ranking: #123
Current age: 25
Preferred surface: —
Hand: Right handed
Height: 173 cm

Jesper De Jong

Netherlands

Dutch right-hander, age 26, currently listed at No. 73 with a career high of No. 71. This search set confirmed recent clay-court match activity, but did not surface a reliable published preferred-surface label or career-high date.

Current ranking: #73
Peak ranking: #71
Current age: 26
Preferred surface: —
Hand: Right handed
Height: 180 cm

Quick Take

Pre-match view

Context last updated 21 Jul 2026, 15:05 · Europe/Bucharest

Jesper De Jong's superior clay-court serve and break point conversion make him the likely winner, but the 1.01 odds offer no value.

The best betting angle is over 15.5 total games at 2.10, given both players' high game averages and break point save rates on clay.

Context

De Jong last 15 clay: 75.4% first-serve points won (508/674) across 13 matches.
- Skatov last 15 clay: 65.1% first-serve points won (386/593) across 11 matches.
- De Jong's break point conversion on clay is 45.9% vs Skatov's 41.3%, making his serve advantage more punishing.
Skatov's last 5 matches: W (3 sets vs Domingues), L (straight sets vs Martinez), L (3 sets vs Collignon), W (straight sets vs Sachko), W (straight sets vs Chandrasekar).
- De Jong's last 5 matches: L (straight sets vs Baez), W (straight sets vs Gaubas), L (straight sets vs Fonseca on grass), W (5 sets vs Hijikata on grass), L (straight sets vs Djere).
- Skatov's loss to Martinez (ranked 159) was one-sided, while De Jong's loss to Baez (ranked 56) was competitive.

BetBugs edges

Compare BetBugs' chances with the market's.

Positive edges · 3

BetBugs probabilities

How likely BetBugs thought each outcome was.

Result0 of 1 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
De Jong's superior serve and break point conversion on clay, combined with a stronger recent win rate, give him a clear edge in this Bo3 match.
- De Jong's last 15 clay record: 9-4 (69.2%), Skatov: 6-5 (54.5%)
- De Jong's clay return points won: 38.9%, Skatov: 39.6% (similar, but De Jong's serve is stronger)
- De Jong's first serve points won on clay: 75.4%, Skatov: 65.1%
- De Jong's break point conversion on clay: 45.9%, Skatov: 41.3%
BetBugs · Match WinnerlostJesper De JongEstimated chance62%

Games1 of 2 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Both players' clay matches tend to be lengthy due to solid break point saving, making over 21.5 games likely.
- Skatov's last 15 clay matches average 23.8 games, De Jong's 26.9 games
- Both players have high break point save rates (Skatov 62.1%, De Jong 67.9% on clay), extending games
- Skatov's last 5 matches: 22, 33, 32, 18, 18 games (avg 24.6)
BetBugs · Total GameswonOver 21.5Estimated chance65%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
With strong serving and few early breaks, the first set is likely to be competitive and exceed 9.5 games.
- Skatov's last 5 first sets: 9, 10, 9, 8, 8 games (avg 8.8)
- De Jong's last 5 first sets: 10, 13, 7, 9, 9 games (avg 9.6)
- Both have high first serve points won on clay, reducing quick breaks
BetBugs · Set 1 Total GameslostOver 9.5Estimated chance55%

Sets1 of 1 landed

Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
De Jong's strong first-set record and serve advantage on clay suggest he is more likely to take the opening set.
- De Jong's first set win conversion career: 87%, Skatov: 83%
- De Jong's last 15 clay first serve points won: 75.4%, Skatov: 65.1%
- Skatov lost first set in 3 of last 5 matches, De Jong won first set in 3 of last 5
BetBugs · Set 1 WinnerwonJesper De JongEstimated chance58%

Match stats0 of 0 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
De Jong's high ace count on clay, even with Skatov's low numbers, should push the combined total over 10.5.
- De Jong averages 8.2 aces per match on clay (last 15), Skatov 1.8
- Combined average aces: 10.0, but De Jong's ace rate is high enough to push total over
- De Jong had 8+ aces in 4 of last 5 clay matches
BetBugs · Total AcesOver 10.5Estimated chance60%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
De Jong's tendency for double faults on clay makes over 5.5 total double faults probable.
- De Jong averages 4.2 double faults per match on clay, Skatov 1.6
- Combined average: 5.8, with De Jong's high rate being the main driver
- De Jong had 4+ double faults in 3 of last 5 clay matches
BetBugs · Total Double FaultsOver 5.5Estimated chance55%

Markets to Avoid

High-risk markets where price or context leaves too little cushion.

Pre-match flagged 4 avoid-market areas; caution remains warranted in high-variance spots.

Timofey Skatov

8W 7L

6-3 6-2#159Pedro Martinez Portero

6-4 6-7(5) 6-4#601Joao Domingues

3-6 7-6(1) 6-4#37Raphael Collignon

6-2 6-4#195Vitaliy Sachko

6-2 6-4#1033Anirudh Chandrasekar

7-5 6-3#434Mika Petkovic

7-6(5) 6-4 6-4#134Kyrian Jacquet

6-4 6-1#197Elias Ymer

6-3 7-6(4)#263Alex Barrena

7-6(5) 6-7(2) 7-6(8)#887James Watt

6-3 6-3#192Taro Daniel

6-4 6-2#123Henrique Rocha

6-4 6-4#173Marco Cecchinato

6-7(2) 7-6(7) 7-6(4)#236Chun Hsin Tseng

4-6 6-4 6-2#128Vilius Gaubas

Jesper De Jong

10W 5L

6-4 6-2#56Sebastian Baez

7-6(1) 7-5#128Vilius Gaubas

6-1 7-5 6-4#28Joao Fonseca

7-6(4) 3-6 5-7 6-4 6-3#96Rinky Hijikata

6-3 7-5#221Laslo Djere

6-3 6-2#177Roberto Carballes Baena

2-6 7-6(7) 6-2#325Enrico Dalla Valle

6-3 4-6 6-1#173Marco Cecchinato

6-2 4-6 6-4#290Federico Bondioli

6-1 7-6(3)#339Ognjen Milic

7-6(3) 6-4 6-1#2Alexander Zverev

7-5 5-7 6-2 6-7(2) 6-2#26Karen Khachanov

6-3 6-1 6-3#184Federico Cina

6-3 3-6 6-3 6-4#118Stan Wawrinka

7-5 6-3#120Michael Zheng

Stat Battle

Last 15 match performance, compared side by side.

TSTimofey SkatovSkatov

Last 15

3–4

9 core stats · 2 even

Jesper De JongJongJJ

Jesper De Jong carries the stronger recent form — Timofey Skatov's route runs through serve.

Serve · 3–2

1st Serve In65.0%+5.0pp60.0%

1st Serve Won68.1%+6.5pp74.6%

2nd Serve Won53.4%+7.0pp46.4%

Aces / Match2.1+6.88.9

Double Faults / Match2.12.5 fewer4.6

Return · 0–0 · 1 even

Return Pts Won37.3%—37.9%

Pressure · 0–2

Break Pts Converted37.9%+4.5pp42.4%

Break Pts Saved66.0%+0.9pp66.9%

Points · 0–0 · 1 even

Total Pts Won50.3%—50.9%

Serve · 3–2

65.0%1st Serve In+5.0pp60.0%

68.1%1st Serve Won+6.5pp74.6%

53.4%2nd Serve Won+7.0pp46.4%

2.1Aces / Match+6.88.9

2.1Double Faults / Match2.5 fewer4.6

Return · 0–0 · 1 even

37.3%Return Pts Won—37.9%

Pressure · 0–2

37.9%Break Pts Converted+4.5pp42.4%

66.0%Break Pts Saved+0.9pp66.9%

Points · 0–0 · 1 even

50.3%Total Pts Won—50.9%