Tamara Zidansek #14811 – 2Alevtina Ibragimova #275Russia2

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Market price 2.75

The read

Ibragimova's superior recent clay stats (return points won, games won %) and momentum from a strong Palermo qualifying run give her a slight edge over Zidansek, who has been inconsistent and may be fatigued from a long Iasi match.

• Ibragimova's last 15 clay matches: 66.7% win rate, 56.5% games won, 53.3% return points won.
• Zidansek's last 15 clay matches: 50% win rate, 48.9% games won, 45.3% return points won.
• Ibragimova's recent form: 3-1 in Palermo qualifying with wins over Salkova (rank 127) and Lepchenko (172), and a close loss to Badosa (115).
• Zidansek's recent form: 3-2 in last 5, including a 3h31m marathon vs Bondar and a win over Marcinko (45), but also a loss to Kostovic (159).

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Market price 1.91

The read

Ibragimova's superior games won percentage and recent form suggest she will cover a +3.5 game handicap comfortably, even if she loses the match.

• Ibragimova's average games won per match in last 15: 11.7.
• Zidansek's average games won per match in last 15: 11.3.
• Ibragimova's games won % in last 15: 56.5% vs Zidansek's 48.2%.
• In their last 5 matches, Ibragimova won 12.2 games on average, Zidansek 11.4.

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced

The read

Both players have been involved in matches with high game counts recently, and their break point conversion rates suggest extended sets, making over 21.5 games likely.

• Zidansek's last 5 matches averaged 22.6 games per match.
• Ibragimova's last 5 matches averaged 20.2 games per match.
• Zidansek's clay matches in last 15 averaged 22.2 games.
• Both players have high break point conversion rates (Zidansek 48.1%, Ibragimova 58.9%), leading to more games.

Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced

The read

Second sets have trended toward over 9.5 games for both players, with Zidansek's matches showing a consistent pattern of extended second sets.

• Zidansek's last 5 second sets averaged 9.8 games.
• Ibragimova's last 5 second sets averaged 9.2 games.
• Zidansek's clay second sets in last 15 averaged 9.6 games.
• Ibragimova's clay second sets in last 15 averaged 9.3 games.

Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced

The read

While both players have had some three-set matches recently, the probability is borderline; the competitive nature of this matchup could push it to a decider.

• Zidansek went to 3 sets in 6 of last 15 matches (40%).
• Ibragimova went to 3 sets in 4 of last 15 matches (26.7%).
• Zidansek's deciding set win rate is 59% career, but only 50% in last 15.
• Both players have shown the ability to extend matches, but not consistently.

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Market price 1.83

The read

Both players have low ace counts, and their combined average is well under 5.5, making the under likely.

• Zidansek averages 1.3 aces per match in last 15.
• Ibragimova averages 1.9 aces per match in last 15.
• Combined average aces per match: 3.2.
• Neither player is a big server; both rely on rallying.

Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced

The read

The combined double fault average exceeds 7.5, and Zidansek's higher rate on clay increases the likelihood of surpassing this line.

• Zidansek averages 4.6 double faults per match in last 15.
• Ibragimova averages 3.9 double faults per match in last 15.
• Combined average double faults: 8.5.
• Zidansek's double fault rate is higher on clay (4.4 per match).