FinlandTampere - FinlandFinished

Predictions graded

Sumit Nagal #241India0Andrej Nedic #237Bosnia & Herzegovina2

Sets 1-6 · 6-7Tue 21 Jul 2026, 10:30 Predictions gradedFirst RoundClay

Predictions4–450%

Edges1–150%

Player Profiles

Ranking advantageAndrej Nedic · 4 places

Sumit Nagal

India

Reached a career-high No. 68 on 2024-07-15. ATP bio credits him with the 2023 Tampere Challenger title, and public profile sources consistently flag clay as his clearest preferred surface.

Current ranking: #241
Peak ranking: #68 · 2024
Current age: 28
Preferred surface: Clay
Hand: Right handed
Height: 178 cm

Andrej Nedic

Bosnia & Herzegovina

Reached a career-high No. 237 on 2026-07-13. Public ATP bio detail is limited, but profile sources list him as right-handed, 185 cm, and Hard as his stated preferred surface.

Current ranking: #237
Peak ranking: #237 · 2026
Current age: 21
Preferred surface: Hard
Hand: Right handed
Height: 185 cm

Quick Take

Pre-match view

Context last updated 20 Jul 2026, 07:16 · Europe/Bucharest

Nedic holds a slight edge over Nagal on clay, backed by a prior H2H win and superior return stats.

The match is expected to be competitive, with value on over 21.5 total games and under 5.5 aces. Nedic is a medium-confidence pick to win, but avoid betting on him in the first set due to thin margins.

Context

Nagal won the Targu Mures Challenger on June 27, 2026, beating Cezar Cretu, Duje Ajdukovic, and Benjamin Hassan along the way.
- In his last 15 clay matches, Nagal has a 60% win rate and has won 51.3% of games.
- His recent title run included multiple three-set battles, showing he can handle extended matches.
Nedic won the only H2H match 7-5, 1-6, 6-4 on clay in August 2025.
- The match was competitive, with both players winning similar return points (50% each).
- Nedic's career clay win percentage (67.6%) is higher than Nagal's (58.7%).

BetBugs edges

Compare BetBugs' chances with the market's.

BetBugs probabilities

How likely BetBugs thought each outcome was.

Result1 of 1 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Market price 2.00
The read
Nedic's superior return stats and H2H edge on clay give him a slight advantage in a close matchup.
- Nedic won the only H2H meeting on clay in 2025 (7-5 1-6 6-4).
- Nedic's last 15 clay matches: 60% win rate, 56.1% games won, 44.2% return points won.
- Nagal's last 15 clay matches: 60% win rate, 51.3% games won, 39.9% return points won.
- Nedic has a higher career clay win percentage (67.6% vs 58.7%) and better deciding set win rate (61% vs 48%).
BetBugs · Match WinnerwonAndrej NedicEstimated chance55%

Games1 of 3 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
The competitive nature of the matchup and Nagal's tendency for longer matches make over 21.5 games likely.
- Nagal's last 15 matches average 22.9 total games per match.
- Nedic's last 15 matches average 20.1 total games, but 5 of his last 10 went over 21.5.
- Their H2H match had 29 games.
- Both players have similar hold/break profiles, suggesting competitive sets.
BetBugs · Total GameslostOver 21.5Estimated chance60%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Market price 1.91
The read
Nagal's consistent trend of longer first sets and the H2H evidence support over 9.5 games in set 1.
- Nagal's last 15 set 1 games average 9.7, with 10 of 15 over 9.5.
- Nedic's last 15 set 1 games average 8.9, but 7 of 15 over 9.5.
- H2H set 1 had 12 games.
BetBugs · Set 1 Total GameslostOver 9.5Estimated chance58%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Both players show a tendency for competitive second sets, making over 9.5 a reasonable expectation.
- Nagal's last 15 set 2 games average 9.5, with 9 of 15 over 9.5.
- Nedic's last 15 set 2 games average 9.1, with 8 of 15 over 9.5.
- H2H set 2 had 7 games, but set 3 had 10, indicating potential for longer sets.
BetBugs · Set 2 Total GameswonOver 9.5Estimated chance55%

Sets1 of 1 landed

Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Nedic's slightly better first-set performance and H2H trend support a narrow edge in set 1.
- Nedic's first set win conversion rate is 89% career, Nagal's is 84%.
- Nedic has won the first set in 8 of his last 15 matches; Nagal in 7 of 15.
- In their only H2H, Nedic won the first set 7-5.
BetBugs · Set 1 WinnerwonAndrej NedicEstimated chance52%

Match stats0 of 0 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Market price 1.85
The read
Both players have low ace counts, making under 5.5 total aces highly probable.
- Nagal averages 1.3 aces per match in last 15.
- Nedic averages 1.5 aces per match in last 15.
- Combined average is 2.8 aces per match.
- H2H had only 4 total aces.
BetBugs · Total AcesUnder 5.5Market price1.85Estimated chance65%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Nagal's high double fault rate and the H2H evidence suggest the total will exceed 4.5.
- Nagal averages 3.2 double faults per match in last 15.
- Nedic averages 1.1 double faults per match in last 15.
- Combined average is 4.3, but Nagal's high rate pushes the total over 4.5 in many matches.
- H2H had 10 double faults (Nagal 6, Nedic 4).
BetBugs · Total Double FaultsOver 4.5Estimated chance55%

Head-to-Head

0-1 (1 meetings)

L7-5 1-6 6-4Sumit Nagal#241vAndrej Nedic#237Aug 20, 2025

1 total meetings

Sumit Nagal

9W 6L

1-6 7-5 6-3#346Federico Bondioli

7-6(3) 6-2#288Juan Bautista Torres

6-2 6-4#268Cezar Cretu

6-2 6-4#254Matej Dodig

6-3 7-5#248Felix Balshaw

6-3 4-6 6-1#268Cezar Cretu

3-6 7-5 6-4#303Duje Ajdukovic

1-6 6-4 6-4#463Benjamin Hassan

6-4 3-6 7-5#348Mili Poljicak

6-4 5-4#330Petr Brunclik

6-2 1-6 7-6(3)#692Mariano Kestelboim

6-1 6-4#147Stefanos Sakellaridis

6-4 7-6(4)#153Zdenek Kolar

6-4 6-2#297Sergey Fomin

6-3 6-2#87Marcos Giron

Andrej Nedic

9W 6L

6-3 6-4#327Enrico Dalla Valle

6-4 6-3#162Lukas Neumayer

6-1 7-6(3)#204Keegan Smith

6-3 6-4#238Franco Roncadelli

6-2 6-0#200Harold Mayot

7-6(5) 7-5#248Felix Balshaw

6-2 6-4#229Max Alcala Gurri

6-7(4) 6-3 7-5#532Sebastian Gima

6-1 6-2#570Alan Fernando Rubio Fierros

7-5 6-7(5) 6-1#640Nikita Mashtakov

6-3 6-2#353Andrey Chepelev

7-6(4) 6-3#440Sebastian Sorger

6-1 6-0—Jakub Vrba

6-0 6-2—Vid Mohar

6-4 6-4#668Yaroslav Demin

Stat Battle

Last 15 match performance, compared side by side.

SNSumit NagalNagal

Last 15

1–6

9 core stats · 2 even

Andrej NedicNedicAN

Andrej Nedic carries the stronger recent form — Sumit Nagal's route runs through serve.

Serve · 1–2 · 2 even

1st Serve In70.4%+2.1pp68.3%

1st Serve Won64.5%—64.6%

2nd Serve Won53.8%+1.8pp55.6%

Aces / Match1.3—1.5

Double Faults / Match3.22.1 fewer1.1

Return · 0–1

Return Pts Won39.9%+4.3pp44.2%

Pressure · 0–2

Break Pts Converted46.2%+5.7pp51.9%

Break Pts Saved55.2%+6.0pp61.2%

Points · 0–1

Total Pts Won50.5%+2.6pp53.1%

Serve · 1–2 · 2 even

70.4%1st Serve In+2.1pp68.3%

64.5%1st Serve Won—64.6%

53.8%2nd Serve Won+1.8pp55.6%

1.3Aces / Match—1.5

3.2Double Faults / Match2.1 fewer1.1

Return · 0–1

39.9%Return Pts Won+4.3pp44.2%

Pressure · 0–2

46.2%Break Pts Converted+5.7pp51.9%

55.2%Break Pts Saved+6.0pp61.2%

Points · 0–1

50.5%Total Pts Won+2.6pp53.1%