United StatesBloomfield Hills - USAFinished

Predictions graded

Sebastian Gorzny #956United States0Borna Gojo #169Croatia2

Sets 2-6 · 2-6Tue 21 Jul 2026, 19:15 Predictions gradedFirst RoundHard

Predictions4–450%

Edges4–267%

Player Profiles

Ranking advantageBorna Gojo · 787 places

Sebastian Gorzny

United States

22-year-old American from Austin and a University of Texas senior. ITF and Tennis Abstract place him at a career-high ATP No. 956 in June 2026; reliable public pro-profile detail beyond that remains limited.

Current ranking: #956
Peak ranking: #956 · 2026
Current age: 22
Preferred surface: —
Hand: Right handed
Height: 188 cm

Borna Gojo

Croatia

Former world No. 72, reached on 2023-11-20. ATP lists hard as his favourite surface, and current public ranking feeds place him back inside the top 200 in July 2026.

Current ranking: #169
Peak ranking: #72 · 2023
Current age: 28
Preferred surface: Hard
Hand: Right handed
Height: 196 cm

Quick Take

Pre-match view

Context last updated 21 Jul 2026, 09:52 · Europe/Bucharest

Borna Gojo’s elite hard-court serve (14.2 aces per match) and 5-0 recent record on the surface make him a heavy favorite against qualifier Sebastian Gorzny, who is playing his third match in three days.

The best betting value lies in over 12.5 total aces and over 9.5 games in set one, while Gojo in straight sets is the most likely match outcome.

Context

Gorzny beat Quinn Vandecasteele 6-3, 7-6 on July 19 and Gavin Young 7-5, 7-5 on July 20 in qualifying.
- This is his third match in three days at the same venue, with no rest day between qualifying and the main draw.
- His last two matches averaged 15.5 games, but the cumulative load can still affect a 20-year-old without a deep pro conditioning base.
Gojo's last 15 hard-court record is 5-0, with wins over players ranked 136, 273, 323, 349, and 458.
- He averaged 14.2 aces per match and won 81.8% of first-serve points on hard courts in that span.
- His only recent losses came on clay and grass, surfaces that blunt his serve advantage.

BetBugs edges

Compare BetBugs' chances with the market's.

Positive edges · 3

BetBugs probabilities

How likely BetBugs thought each outcome was.

Result1 of 1 landed

Signal quality High · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Market price 1.25
The read
Gojo's dominant recent hard-court form (5-0 in last 15) and vast experience edge over unranked Gorzny make him a strong favorite.
- Gojo last 15 overall record: 11-4 (73.3%), Gorzny 8-7 (53.3%)
- Gojo hard-court record last 15: 5-0 (100%), Gorzny 7-5 (58.3%)
- Gojo career hard-court wins: 136, Gorzny 27
- Gojo ranking: 169, Gorzny unranked
BetBugs · Match WinnerwonBorna GojoEstimated chance78%

Games0 of 3 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Both players average over 23 games per match in recent form, and Gorzny's competitive sets suggest a total above 21.5 is probable.
- Gorzny last 15 average games per match: 24.4 (180 games in 15 matches)
- Gojo last 15 average games per match: 23.9 (192 games in 15 matches)
- Gorzny's last three matches: 18, 13, 18 games
BetBugs · Total GameslostOver 21.5Estimated chance65%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Market price 1.91
The read
Both players average over 9.5 games in the first set recently, and Gorzny's fighting spirit could push the set beyond the line.
- Gorzny last 15 set1 average games: 9.6 (144 games in 15 sets)
- Gojo last 15 set1 average games: 9.7 (145 games in 15 sets)
- Gorzny's last three set1 games: 12, 9, 9
BetBugs · Set 1 Total GameslostOver 9.5Estimated chance62%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Market price 1.91
The read
Set 2 often remains competitive even in straight-set matches, and both players' recent set2 averages support over 9.5 games.
- Gorzny last 15 set2 average games: 9.7 (145 games in 15 sets)
- Gojo last 15 set2 average games: 9.5 (142 games in 15 sets)
- Gorzny's last three set2 games: 13, 9, 10
BetBugs · Set 2 Total GameslostOver 9.5Estimated chance60%

Sets3 of 3 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Market price 1.36
The read
Gojo's superior serve and hard-court dominance should allow him to take the opening set against a qualifier playing his third match in three days.
- Gojo first-set win conversion career: 83%, Gorzny 89%
- Gojo hard-court first-serve points won last 15: 81.8%, Gorzny 72.6%
- Gojo aces per match on hard last 15: 14.2, Gorzny 4.5
BetBugs · Set 1 WinnerwonBorna GojoEstimated chance72%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Market price 1.36
The read
Gojo's consistent hard-court performance and Gorzny's potential fatigue from qualifying make a straight-sets win likely.
- Gojo hard-court second-serve points won last 15: 55.5%, Gorzny 54.2%
- Gojo break-point save rate on hard last 15: 73.3%, Gorzny 63.6%
- Gorzny fatigue risk from back-to-back qualifying matches
BetBugs · Set 2 WinnerwonBorna GojoEstimated chance68%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Market price 1.70
The read
Gojo's dominant hard-court form and Gorzny's fatigue from qualifying make a straight-sets victory the most likely outcome.
- Gojo hard-court straight-set win rate last 15: 4 of 5 wins (80%)
- Gorzny lost in straight sets in 5 of his last 15 matches
- Gojo's superior serve and return stats on hard courts
BetBugs · Set BettingwonBorna Gojo 2-0Estimated chance62%

Match stats0 of 0 landed

Signal quality High · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Gojo's elite ace rate on hard courts (14.2 per match) alone nearly covers the line, and Gorzny adds a few aces to push the total well over 12.5.
- Gojo aces per match on hard last 15: 14.2
- Gorzny aces per match on hard last 15: 4.5
- Combined average aces per match: 18.7
BetBugs · Total AcesOver 12.5Estimated chance75%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Both players average over 3.5 double faults per match on hard courts, making a combined total above 6.5 likely.
- Gojo double faults per match on hard last 15: 4.6
- Gorzny double faults per match on hard last 15: 3.8
- Combined average double faults per match: 8.4
BetBugs · Total Double FaultsOver 6.5Estimated chance58%

Sebastian Gorzny

8W 7L

5-7 7-5 6-3#564Gavin Young

6-3 7-6(8)#458Quinn Vandecasteele

6-3 4-6 6-4#741Matthew Forbes

6-1 7-6(5)—Landon Ardila

7-6(3) 7-6(2)#654Joshua Sheehy

7-6(5) 6-4#586Ozan Baris

1-6 6-3 6-3#493Enzo Aguiard

6-3 6-3#604Kenta Miyoshi

2-6 6-4 7-5#474Blake Ellis

6-4 7-6(5)—Mikael Arseneault

6-3 1-6 6-3#244Liam Draxl

6-4 6-4#397Andrew Fenty

3-6 6-2 10-7—Lucas Marionneau

6-1 6-4—Loren Thomas Byers

6-3 7-5#390Raphael Perot

Borna Gojo

11W 4L

6-4 6-4#174Colton Smith

7-6(10) 6-2#112Chak Lam Coleman Wong

7-5 6-3#145Jurij Rodionov

6-3 3-6 7-6(9)#123Henrique Rocha

6-3 6-4#268Sascha Gueymard Wayenburg

6-4 6-3#95Marco Trungelliti

7-6(5) 6-2#273Juan Pablo Ficovich

6-4 7-6(5)#136Nicolas Mejia

7-6(3) 6-4#323Rodrigo Pacheco Mendez

6-3 6-7(6) 7-5#458Quinn Vandecasteele

7-6(5) 6-4#349Mitchell Krueger

6-4 3-6 6-3#242Pavel Kotov

6-4 7-6(6)#182Remy Bertola

7-5 6-7(4) 6-4#410Geoffrey Blancaneaux

6-3 6-3#387Laurent Lokoli

Stat Battle

Last 15 match performance, compared side by side.

SGSebastian GorznyGorzny

Last 15

2–7

9 core stats · 0 even

Borna GojoGojoBG

Borna Gojo carries the stronger recent form — Sebastian Gorzny's route runs through serve.

Serve · 1–4

1st Serve In14/15 · 15/1559.4%+5.2pp64.6%

1st Serve Won14/15 · 15/1572.5%+6.6pp79.1%

2nd Serve Won14/15 · 15/1553.8%+2.3pp51.5%

Aces / Match14/15 · 15/154.8+6.811.6

Double Faults / Match14/15 · 15/153.70.5 fewer3.2

Return · 1–0

Return Pts Won14/15 · 15/1537.4%+2.0pp35.4%

Pressure · 0–2

Break Pts Converted14/15 · 15/1536.4%+3.1pp39.5%

Break Pts Saved14/15 · 15/1560.5%+7.2pp67.7%

Points · 0–1

Total Pts Won14/15 · 15/1550.5%+1.6pp52.1%

Serve · 1–4

59.4%1st Serve In14/15 · 15/15+5.2pp64.6%

72.5%1st Serve Won14/15 · 15/15+6.6pp79.1%

53.8%2nd Serve Won14/15 · 15/15+2.3pp51.5%

4.8Aces / Match14/15 · 15/15+6.811.6

3.7Double Faults / Match14/15 · 15/150.5 fewer3.2

Return · 1–0

37.4%Return Pts Won14/15 · 15/15+2.0pp35.4%

Pressure · 0–2

36.4%Break Pts Converted14/15 · 15/15+3.1pp39.5%

60.5%Break Pts Saved14/15 · 15/15+7.2pp67.7%

Points · 0–1

50.5%Total Pts Won14/15 · 15/15+1.6pp52.1%

Sebastian Gorzny

Borna Gojo

Quick Take

Context

BetBugs edges

Over 9.5

Borna Gojo 2-0

Over 9.5

Borna Gojo

Borna Gojo

Borna Gojo

Result1 of 1 landed

Games0 of 3 landed

Sets3 of 3 landed

Match stats0 of 0 landed

Sebastian Gorzny

Borna Gojo

Stat Battle