Nikola Bartunkova #43Czechia22 – 1Yue Yuan #120China1

Signal quality High · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Market price 1.30

The read

Bartunkova's superior recent form, higher ranking, and strong serve numbers (70.8% first serve points won) give her a clear edge over Yuan, who has struggled with a 33% win rate in her last 15 matches.

• Bartunkova last15 overall record 9-6 (60%), Yuan 5-10 (33.3%)
• Bartunkova last15 return points won 41.4%, Yuan 44.6% but on serve Bartunkova first serve points won 70.8% vs Yuan 58.9%
• Bartunkova ranking 43 vs Yuan 120, significant gap
• Bartunkova home event, seeded #4, no qualifying workload

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Market price 1.83

The read

Both players' recent matches average over 20 games, and Yuan's low break point save rate combined with Bartunkova's solid return game should produce a competitive match with enough games to clear 20.5.

• Bartunkova last15 average games per match 25.7, Yuan 23.8
• Both players have high three-set match frequency in recent form
• Yuan last15 break points saved only 52.8%, leading to more breaks and games

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Market price 1.83

The read

Yuan's low break point save rate and Bartunkova's moderate conversion rate suggest the second set will feature multiple breaks, pushing the total games over 9.5.

• Bartunkova last15 second set average games 9.3, Yuan 9.1
• Yuan last15 break points saved 52.8%, leading to more breaks
• Bartunkova last15 break points converted 39.6%, indicating she can break but not always easily

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Market price 1.36

The read

Bartunkova's ability to close matches (60% deciding set wins) and Yuan's weaker second serve suggest Bartunkova will maintain pressure and take the second set if needed.

• Bartunkova last15 deciding set win rate 60%, Yuan 49% career
• Yuan last15 second serve points won 46.2%, Bartunkova 45.5% but Bartunkova return points won 41.4% vs Yuan's 44.6% on return
• Bartunkova last15 break points converted 39.6%, Yuan 43.2%

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced

The read

Bartunkova's higher ace rate (4.7 per match recently) combined with Yuan's 2.1 pushes the expected total above 6.5, especially on hard courts where Bartunkova's serve is effective.

• Bartunkova last15 aces per match 4.7, Yuan 2.1
• Combined average aces per match 6.8 in last15
• Bartunkova career aces 664 in 250 matches (2.66 per match), Yuan 1097 in 536 (2.05 per match)

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced

The read

Bartunkova's high double fault rate (4.9 per match) alone nearly covers the line, and Yuan's occasional doubles push the total comfortably over 6.5.

• Bartunkova last15 double faults per match 4.9, Yuan 2.0
• Combined average double faults per match 6.9 in last15
• Bartunkova career double faults 1588 in 250 matches (6.35 per match), Yuan 911 in 536 (1.70 per match)