FinlandTampere - FinlandFinished

Predictions graded

Nicolai Budkov Kjaer #118Norway0Sascha Gueymard Wayenburg #269France2

Sets 6-7 · 3-6Tue 21 Jul 2026, 13:10 Predictions gradedFirst RoundClay

Predictions3–538%

Edges1–325%

Player Profiles

Ranking advantageNicolai Budkov Kjaer · 151 places

Nicolai Budkov Kjaer

Norway

ATP's bio updated on January 18, 2026 says he started 2025 outside the Top 500 and reached No. 132 by November 2025. The structured match data now lists him at No. 118, so the ranking trend is still upward; ATP also lists grass as his favourite surface.

Current ranking: #118
Peak ranking: #118 · 2026
Current age: 19
Preferred surface: Grass
Hand: Right handed
Height: 191 cm

Sascha Gueymard Wayenburg

France

No ATP bio is currently available for him. Structured match data lists him at No. 269, and searchable profile sources place his career high at No. 193 in November 2025; reliable public detail on preferred surface is thin.

Current ranking: #269
Peak ranking: #193 · 2025
Current age: 22
Preferred surface: —
Hand: Right handed
Height: 191 cm

Quick Take

Pre-match view

Context last updated 20 Jul 2026, 07:09 · Europe/Bucharest

Defending champion Nicolai Budkov Kjaer holds a clear edge over Sascha Gueymard Wayenburg in this Tampere Challenger rematch, thanks to superior clay-court pedigree and a prior H2H win.

Betting value lies in over 9.5 games in the first set and a Budkov Kjaer 2-0 victory, while Gueymard Wayenburg's weak return and low break-point conversion make backing him a high-risk proposition.

Context

Budkov Kjaer beat Gueymard Wayenburg in the 2025 Tampere final 7-6(5) 6-7(2) 6-2.
- He is the No. 1 seed in the 2026 draw.
- His career clay win rate is 69.7% compared to Gueymard Wayenburg's 50%.
In his last 15 clay matches, Gueymard Wayenburg converted 27 of 91 break points (29.7%).
- His return points won on clay in that span is just 35.5%.
- In their H2H, Budkov Kjaer won 43% of return points while Gueymard Wayenburg won only 34%.
Budkov Kjaer's last nine clay matches: wins over Bailly, Paul, Fita Juan, Virtanen; losses to Pellegrino, Gentzsch, Kecmanovic, Svrcina, Medvedev.
- The average ranking of his opponents in those losses was around 100, while Gueymard Wayenburg is ranked 269.
- He won the only H2H meeting on clay.

BetBugs edges

Compare BetBugs' chances with the market's.

Positive edges · 2

Other edges · 2

The published chance does not exceed the market's implied chance.

Match WinnerlostUncertainty band: Strong lean

Nicolai Budkov Kjaer

1.40fair 1.54

BetBugs 65% · Market 71.4%

0.0ppshort

Model estimate of 65% is below the implied 71.4%, so no positive edge exists on Budkov Kjaer at these odds.

BetBugs probabilities

How likely BetBugs thought each outcome was.

Result0 of 1 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Market price 1.40
The read
Budkov Kjaer's superior clay pedigree, higher ranking, and H2H win give him a clear edge, though recent form is mixed.
- Budkov Kjaer won the only H2H meeting 7-6(5) 6-7(2) 6-2 on clay in July 2025.
- Budkov Kjaer has a 44.4% win rate on clay in last 15 matches (4-5), but faced stronger opponents (avg rank ~150 vs Gueymard Wayenburg's ~300).
- Gueymard Wayenburg's last 15 clay record is 6-9 (40%), with a low 29.7% break point conversion rate.
- Budkov Kjaer's career clay win percentage is 46-20 (69.7%) vs Gueymard Wayenburg's 50-50 (50%).
BetBugs · Match WinnerlostNicolai Budkov KjaerEstimated chance65%

Games2 of 3 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Both players' recent match lengths and the competitive H2H suggest a match exceeding 21.5 games.
- The H2H match had 34 games (7-6, 6-7, 6-2).
- Budkov Kjaer's last 15 matches average 22.8 games per match; Gueymard Wayenburg's average 22.9.
- Both players have clay hold/break profiles that lead to competitive sets: Budkov Kjaer holds 63% first serve, Gueymard Wayenburg saves 65.2% break points.
BetBugs · Total GameswonOver 21.5Estimated chance65%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Market price 1.91
The read
The H2H and recent set data indicate a tight first set, likely over 9.5 games.
- The H2H first set went to a tiebreak (13 games).
- Budkov Kjaer's last 15 clay matches: 6 of 9 first sets had 10+ games.
- Gueymard Wayenburg's last 15 clay matches: 8 of 15 first sets had 10+ games.
BetBugs · Set 1 Total GameswonOver 9.5Estimated chance65%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Both players tend to play extended second sets, making over 9.5 games likely.
- The H2H second set went to a tiebreak (13 games).
- Budkov Kjaer's last 15 matches: 10 of 15 second sets had 10+ games.
- Gueymard Wayenburg's last 15 matches: 9 of 15 second sets had 10+ games.
BetBugs · Set 2 Total GameslostOver 9.5Estimated chance55%

Sets0 of 2 landed

Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Lean · Market price 1.50
The read
Budkov Kjaer's strong first-set record and H2H precedent suggest he is likely to edge the opener.
- Budkov Kjaer won the first set in the H2H meeting 7-6.
- Budkov Kjaer's first set win conversion rate is 88% career, indicating strong starts.
- Gueymard Wayenburg's first set win conversion is 84%, but he lost the first set in 8 of his last 15 matches.
BetBugs · Set 1 WinnerlostNicolai Budkov KjaerEstimated chance60%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
The competitive H2H and both players' tendency for three-setters make over 2.5 sets a coin-flip.
- The H2H went to three sets.
- Budkov Kjaer has played 3-setters in 5 of his last 15 matches; Gueymard Wayenburg in 6 of 15.
- Gueymard Wayenburg's deciding set win rate is 47%, suggesting he can push a third set.
BetBugs · Total SetslostOver 2.5Estimated chance50%

Match stats1 of 1 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Both players have high double fault rates, making over 6.5 likely.
- Budkov Kjaer averages 3.1 double faults per match in last 15; Gueymard Wayenburg averages 4.3.
- Combined average is 7.4 double faults per match.
- The H2H had 12 double faults (5 by Budkov Kjaer, 7 by Gueymard Wayenburg).
BetBugs · Total Double FaultsOver 6.5Estimated chance65%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Both players frequently play tiebreaks, and the H2H suggests a tight match with at least one breaker.
- The H2H featured two tiebreaks.
- Budkov Kjaer has played a tiebreak in 6 of his last 15 matches; Gueymard Wayenburg in 7 of 15.
- Budkov Kjaer's career tiebreak win rate is 57%; Gueymard Wayenburg's is 46%.
BetBugs · Tiebreak in MatchwonYesEstimated chance60%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Despite low clay ace rates, the combined average slightly favors over 7.5 aces.
- Budkov Kjaer averages 3.3 aces per match in last 15; Gueymard Wayenburg averages 4.4.
- Combined average is 7.7 aces per match.
- On clay, Budkov Kjaer averages 1.6 aces, Gueymard Wayenburg 4.4, but the H2H had only 4 total aces.
BetBugs · Total AcesOver 7.5Estimated chance55%

Markets to Avoid

High-risk markets where price or context leaves too little cushion.

Pre-match flagged 2 avoid-market areas; caution remains warranted in high-variance spots.

Head-to-Head

1-0 (1 meetings)

W7-6(5) 6-7(2) 6-2Nicolai Budkov Kjaer#118vSascha Gueymard Wayenburg#269Jul 27, 2025

1 total meetings

Nicolai Budkov Kjaer

6W 9L

6-3 6-2#138Andrea Pellegrino

4-6 6-4 6-4 7-5#126Otto Virtanen

6-2 7-6(4)#254Matej Dodig

6-4 6-7(6) 6-1#250Joao Lucas Reis Da Silva

3-6 6-3 6-2#140Mackenzie Mcdonald

6-0 7-6(4)#192August Holmgren

6-3 7-6(3)#140Mackenzie Mcdonald

7-6(2) 6-2#212Tom Gentzsch

2-6 6-4 6-2#203Gilles Arnaud Bailly

6-4 6-4#59Miomir Kecmanovic

6-7(8) 6-1 6-4#543Jakub Paul

6-3 6-2—Sergi Fita Juan

6-4 6-2#114Dalibor Svrcina

6-7(5) 7-6(3) 6-3#126Otto Virtanen

6-3 6-2#8Daniil Medvedev

Sascha Gueymard Wayenburg

6W 9L

7-6(1) 7-5#186Jerome Kym

7-6(4) 4-6 6-3#550Alexander Donski

6-4 6-2#252Maks Kasnikowski

4-6 6-3 6-4#213Lautaro Midon

7-6(5) 3-6 6-3#229Max Alcala Gurri

6-2 7-5#229Max Alcala Gurri

7-5 6-1#691Gabriel Ghetu

6-4 6-3#178Clement Tabur

6-4 6-3#56Sebastian Baez

6-3 6-4#168Borna Gojo

6-4 6-7(1) 7-6(5)#327Enrico Dalla Valle

7-6(4) 6-1#278Martin Krumich

6-2 6-3#710Arthur Reymond

7-5 6-2#180Roberto Bautista Agut

6-4 6-4#450Tom Paris

Stat Battle

Last 15 match performance, compared side by side.

NKNicolai Budkov KjaerKjaer

Last 15

4–3

9 core stats · 2 even

Sascha Gueymard WayenburgWayenburgSW

Nicolai Budkov Kjaer carries the stronger recent form — Sascha Gueymard Wayenburg's route runs through serve.

Serve · 2–2 · 1 even

1st Serve In64.3%+6.1pp58.2%

1st Serve Won66.4%+4.2pp70.6%

2nd Serve Won49.5%—49.8%

Aces / Match3.3+1.14.4

Double Faults / Match3.11.2 fewer4.3

Return · 1–0

Return Pts Won38.2%+2.7pp35.5%

Pressure · 1–1

Break Pts Converted40.6%+10.9pp29.7%

Break Pts Saved57.1%+8.1pp65.2%

Points · 0–0 · 1 even

Total Pts Won49.5%—49.0%

Serve · 2–2 · 1 even

64.3%1st Serve In+6.1pp58.2%

66.4%1st Serve Won+4.2pp70.6%

49.5%2nd Serve Won—49.8%

3.3Aces / Match+1.14.4

3.1Double Faults / Match1.2 fewer4.3

Return · 1–0

38.2%Return Pts Won+2.7pp35.5%

Pressure · 1–1

40.6%Break Pts Converted+10.9pp29.7%

57.1%Break Pts Saved+8.1pp65.2%

Points · 0–0 · 1 even

49.5%Total Pts Won—49.0%

Nicolai Budkov Kjaer #118Norway0Sascha Gueymard Wayenburg #269France2

Player Profiles

Nicolai Budkov Kjaer

Sascha Gueymard Wayenburg

Quick Take

Context

BetBugs edges

Over 9.5

Nicolai Budkov Kjaer 2-0

Nicolai Budkov Kjaer

Nicolai Budkov Kjaer

BetBugs probabilities

Result0 of 1 landed

Games2 of 3 landed

Sets0 of 2 landed

Match stats1 of 1 landed

Markets to Avoid

Sascha Gueymard Wayenburg @ 2.75

Sascha Gueymard Wayenburg 2-1 @ 5.75

Head-to-Head

Nicolai Budkov Kjaer

Sascha Gueymard Wayenburg

Stat Battle