Jan-Lennard Struff #41Germany22 – 1Alexander Shevchenko #100Kazakhstan1

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Market price 1.55

The read

Despite Struff's poor recent clay form (2-4 in last 6 on clay), his overall ranking edge (41 vs 100), H2H dominance, and career clay pedigree give him a moderate edge over Shevchenko, who has been solid on clay recently but faces a step up in class.

• Struff leads H2H 2-0, both wins in straight sets on hard/indoor hard.
• Struff's last 15 overall record: 8-7 (53.3%), but clay record in that window: 2-4 (33.3%).
• Shevchenko's last 15 clay record: 8-5 (61.5%), with 56.3% sets won on clay.
• Struff's career clay win percentage: 280 wins, strong surface history; Shevchenko: 207 clay wins.

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Market price 1.85

The read

Both players have been involved in competitive matches recently, with Struff's matches tending to be longer and Shevchenko showing resilience on clay; a tight three-setter is plausible, pushing total games over 22.5.

• Struff's last 15 matches average 141.1 minutes, with many tight sets.
• Shevchenko's last 15 matches average 100.8 minutes, but clay matches average 103.3 minutes.
• Struff's recent clay matches: 3 of last 6 went to deciding sets.
• Shevchenko's recent clay matches: 5 of last 13 went to deciding sets.

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced

The read

Shevchenko's solid clay form and Struff's recent struggles on the surface suggest a close match, making Shevchenko +3.5 games a strong play given his ability to keep sets tight.

• Shevchenko's last 15 clay matches: 51.3% games won, competitive in losses.
• Struff's last 15 clay matches: 46.4% games won, often losing by narrow margins.
• H2H: Struff won 6-4, 6-4 and 3-6, 6-4, 6-4, both within 3.5 games.
• Shevchenko's recent clay form: 8-5 record, with only one loss by more than 3.5 games.

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced

The read

Both players have a tendency to play three-setters, with Struff's matches often extended and Shevchenko's clay resilience; the match is likely to go the distance.

• Struff's last 15 matches: 8 of 15 went to deciding sets.
• Shevchenko's last 15 matches: 7 of 15 went to deciding sets.
• Struff's clay matches in last 15: 3 of 6 went to deciding sets.
• Shevchenko's clay matches in last 15: 5 of 13 went to deciding sets.

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced

The read

Struff's big serve, even on clay, should produce aces, and Shevchenko adds a few; the combined total is likely to exceed 12.5 given Struff's ace rate and the altitude in Kitzbuhel aiding serves.

• Struff averages 13.1 aces per match in last 15, 6.5 on clay.
• Shevchenko averages 5.1 aces per match in last 15, 5.5 on clay.
• Combined average aces in last 15: 18.2 overall, 12.0 on clay.
• Struff's career ace count: 7282 in 1092 matches (6.7 per match).

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced

The read

Both players have high tiebreak involvement, and Struff's serve-oriented game often leads to tight sets; a tiebreak is likely in this competitive matchup.

• Struff's tiebreak win percentage career: 50%, with many tiebreaks played.
• Shevchenko's tiebreak win percentage career: 55%.
• Struff's last 15 matches: 7 of 15 featured at least one tiebreak.
• Shevchenko's last 15 matches: 5 of 15 featured at least one tiebreak.

Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced

The read

Struff's aggressive second serve leads to double faults, and Shevchenko's moderate rate pushes the combined total near the line; with pressure, over 6.5 is slightly favored.

• Struff averages 4.2 double faults per match in last 15, 3.3 on clay.
• Shevchenko averages 2.3 double faults per match in last 15, 2.4 on clay.
• Combined average double faults in last 15: 6.5 overall, 5.7 on clay.
• Struff's career double fault rate: 3242 in 1092 matches (3.0 per match).