Hugo Gaston vs Damir Dzumhur: result, stats and head-to-head

Result0 of 1 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Market price 1.65
The read
Dzumhur's superior clay return stats and recent high-level wins give him a slight edge over Gaston, whose clay form has been more inconsistent.
- Dzumhur leads H2H 1-0 on clay (2025, 4-6 6-2 6-2).
- Dzumhur clay last 11: 6-5 record, 51.9% games won, 43.5% return points won.
- Gaston clay last 10: 5-5 record, 49.4% games won, 40.5% return points won.
- Dzumhur's recent Umag run included wins over Arnaldi (rank 34) and Molcan (rank 101).
BetBugs · Match WinnerlostDamir DzumhurEstimated chance55%

Games1 of 3 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Market price 1.80
The read
Both players' recent clay matches frequently exceed 21.5 games, and their competitive styles often lead to extended sets.
- Gaston's last 10 clay matches averaged 22.1 total games; Dzumhur's last 11 averaged 22.5.
- Both players have 50%+ three-set match frequency in recent clay events.
- H2H match had 26 games (4-6 6-2 6-2).
BetBugs · Total GameslostOver 21.5Estimated chance60%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Both players tend to start matches competitively on clay, with a high frequency of first sets reaching 10 or more games.
- Gaston's last 10 clay first sets averaged 9.8 games; Dzumhur's last 11 averaged 9.5.
- In 7 of Gaston's last 10 clay matches, first set had 10+ games.
- Dzumhur's recent Umag matches featured tight first sets (7-6, 6-4, 6-3).
BetBugs · Set 1 Total GameslostOver 9.5Estimated chance55%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Gaston's ability to keep matches close, even in defeat, suggests he can stay within 2.5 games against Dzumhur.
- Gaston's last 10 clay losses: average margin -3.2 games; covered +2.5 in 7 of those.
- Dzumhur's last 11 clay wins: average margin +3.8 games; failed to cover -2.5 in 4 of 6 wins.
- H2H margin was 4 games, but Gaston won a set.
BetBugs · Game HandicapwonHugo Gaston +2.5Estimated chance55%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
The pattern of tight sets continues into the second, with both players showing resilience that pushes games totals higher.
- Gaston's last 10 clay second sets averaged 9.4 games; Dzumhur's last 11 averaged 9.2.
- In 6 of Gaston's last 10 clay matches, second set had 10+ games.
- Dzumhur's second sets often stay close after competitive first sets.
BetBugs · Set 2 Total Gamesnot gradableOver 9.5Estimated chance52%

Sets0 of 2 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
The competitive nature of this matchup and both players' tendency to split sets on clay make a three-setter likely.
- Gaston went to three sets in 5 of last 10 clay matches; Dzumhur in 6 of last 11.
- Both players have deciding set win rates around 55% on clay.
- H2H match went three sets.
BetBugs · Total SetslostOver 2.5Estimated chance55%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Dzumhur's slightly better first-set performance on clay and higher career conversion rate suggest a marginal edge in the opening set.
- Dzumhur won first set in 6 of last 11 clay matches; Gaston in 5 of last 10.
- Dzumhur first-set win conversion career: 85%; Gaston: 82%.
- Dzumhur's recent Umag final loss came after a tight three-setter, but he started strong in earlier rounds.
BetBugs · Set 1 WinnerlostDamir DzumhurEstimated chance52%

Match stats0 of 0 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Market price 1.85
The read
Both players have low ace counts on clay, making it unlikely they combine for more than 5 aces.
- Gaston averages 3.1 aces per match on clay (last 10); Dzumhur 1.5 (last 11).
- Combined average: 4.6 aces per match.
- Neither player relies on big serving; both focus on rally construction.
BetBugs · Total AcesUnder 5.5Market price1.85Estimated chance65%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
The combined double fault average hovers around the line, but the competitive nature of the match could push it over.
- Gaston averages 2.4 double faults per match on clay (last 10); Dzumhur 1.4 (last 11).
- Combined average: 3.8 double faults per match.
- In pressure situations, both can be prone to double faults.
BetBugs · Total Double FaultsOver 3.5Estimated chance50%

The percentage shows our estimated chance. Tap a row for the context and share card.18+ · predictions, not guarantees

Hugo Gaston #107France1Damir Dzumhur #108Bosnia & Herzegovina0

Player Profiles

Hugo Gaston

Damir Dzumhur

Quick Take

Context

BetBugs edges

Under 5.5

Over 21.5

Damir Dzumhur 2-1

Damir Dzumhur

BetBugs probabilities

Result0 of 1 landed

Games1 of 3 landed

Sets0 of 2 landed

Match stats0 of 0 landed

Head-to-Head

Hugo Gaston

Damir Dzumhur

Stat Battle