Titouan Droguet #119France22 – 1Camilo Ugo Carabelli #58Argentina1

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced

The read

Both players are prone to long clay matches, with Ugo Carabelli's recent matches consistently exceeding 21.5 games.

• Droguet's last 10 clay matches averaged 21.3 games per match; 6 of 10 went over 21.5.
• Ugo Carabelli's last 14 clay matches averaged 26.9 games per match; 11 of 14 went over 21.5.
• Both players have high deciding-set rates: Droguet 58% career, Ugo Carabelli 59% career, suggesting close matches.
• Ugo Carabelli's recent clay matches often go deep: 3 of last 5 went to three sets.

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced

The read

Droguet's clay matches are typically close, and Ugo Carabelli rarely wins by large margins, making Droguet +3.5 a solid cover.

• Droguet's last 10 clay matches: average game differential +0.5; only 2 losses by more than 3.5 games.
• Ugo Carabelli's last 14 clay matches: average game differential -0.4; only 4 wins by more than 3.5 games.
• Droguet's recent losses to top-50 players were by 3.5 games or fewer in 2 of 3 cases.

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced

The read

Ugo Carabelli's tendency to play three-setters, especially on clay, combined with Droguet's resilience, makes over 2.5 sets likely.

• Ugo Carabelli's last 15 matches: 8 went to three sets (53%).
• Droguet's last 15 matches: 6 went to three sets (40%).
• On clay, Ugo Carabelli's three-set rate is 50% (7 of 14); Droguet's is 30% (3 of 10).
• Both players have career deciding-set win rates near 58-59%, indicating they often push matches to a decider.

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Market price 1.85

The read

Both players have above-average double fault rates on clay, making over 4.5 likely based on recent averages.

• Droguet averages 2.2 double faults per match on clay in last 10; Ugo Carabelli averages 2.7 in last 14 clay matches.
• Combined average: 4.9 double faults per match on clay.
• Ugo Carabelli's career double fault rate is high (1459 in 647 matches), and Droguet's is moderate (792 in 452).

Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced

The read

Combined ace average hovers near 8.5, with potential for over if Droguet's serve clicks, but low confidence due to clay surface reducing aces.

• Droguet averages 4.3 aces per match on clay in last 10; Ugo Carabelli averages 3.9 in last 14 clay matches.
• Combined average: 8.2 aces per match, but Droguet's overall last 15 average is 5.8 (including grass), and Ugo Carabelli's is 4.5.
• On clay, both players' ace counts are lower, but Droguet's serve can produce aces (career 2329 aces in 452 matches).