Thomas Faurel #319France11 – 2Daniel Rincon #210Spain2

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Market price 1.65

The read

Rincon's superior recent form, higher quality wins, and better clutch stats (deciding set, first set conversion) give him a clear edge on clay.

• Rincon has a 66.7% win rate in last 15 matches (10-5) vs Faurel's 40% (6-9).
• Rincon's last 5 matches: 4-1 with wins over Djere, Ofner, Comesana; Faurel's last 5: 2-3 with losses to Damas, Kym, Ribeiro Marcondes.
• Rincon holds a 60% deciding set win rate career vs Faurel's 37%, and 89% first set win conversion vs 82%.
• Both are clay specialists, but Rincon's 2026 clay record is 24-11 vs Faurel's 10-13.

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced

The read

Both players have a tendency for close, extended matches on clay, pushing the total games over 21.5.

• Faurel's last 15 matches average 23.9 total games; Rincon's average 21.9.
• Both players have high three-set match frequency: Faurel 7 of last 15 went to deciding set, Rincon 5 of last 15.
• In their last 5 matches, Faurel's matches averaged 25.6 games, Rincon's 22.6 games.
• Clay matches between evenly matched opponents often extend beyond 21.5 games.

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced

The read

Faurel's matches are typically close, and he rarely loses by more than 3.5 games, making the handicap a strong play.

• Faurel's last 15 matches: average game differential -0.8; Rincon's: +0.5.
• In losses, Faurel's average margin is -3.2 games; Rincon's wins average margin +3.8 games.
• Faurel covered +3.5 in 12 of his last 15 matches (80%).

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Market price 1.91

The read

The first set is often competitive between these two, with a strong chance of exceeding 9.5 games.

• Faurel's last 15 first sets average 9.8 games; Rincon's average 9.5 games.
• In their last 5 matches, Faurel's first sets averaged 10.2 games, Rincon's 9.8 games.
• Both players have a high rate of first sets going to 10+ games: Faurel 60%, Rincon 53%.

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Market price 1.65

The read

Rincon's strong first-set performance and higher conversion rate suggest he is likely to start fast and take the opener.

• Rincon's first set win conversion career is 89% vs Faurel's 82%.
• In last 15 matches, Rincon won the first set in 10 of 15 (66.7%), Faurel in 6 of 15 (40%).
• Rincon's last 5 matches: won first set in 4 of 5; Faurel won first set in 2 of last 5.

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced

The read

Both players have shown a high frequency of three-set matches recently, making Over 2.5 sets a solid probability.

• Faurel played 7 three-set matches in last 15 (46.7%); Rincon played 5 (33.3%).
• Combined, 12 of 30 recent matches went to a deciding set (40%).
• Faurel's last 5 matches: 3 went three sets; Rincon's last 5: 2 went three sets.

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced

The read

Neither player is a big server, and clay further reduces ace counts, making Under 5.5 likely.

• Faurel averages 2.0 aces per match in last 15; Rincon averages 2.5.
• Combined average aces per match: 4.5.
• Both players have low ace rates on clay: Faurel 2.0, Rincon 2.5 in recent window.

Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced

The read

The combined average hovers around 3.7, and with potential tight moments, Over 3.5 is a marginal but reasonable pick.

• Faurel averages 1.8 double faults per match in last 15; Rincon averages 1.9.
• Combined average: 3.7 double faults per match.
• Both players have moderate double fault rates, and pressure situations could increase errors.