Moez Echargui #151Tunisia00 – 2Lloyd Harris #1872

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Market price 1.33

The read

Harris' dominant recent hard-court form (5-0) and superior serve/return metrics give him a clear edge over Echargui, who has struggled overall (2-8 last 10) and lacks hard-court match play recently.

• Harris has a 100% hard-court record in his last 5 matches (5-0), while Echargui is 0-1 on hard in the same window.
• Harris' last15 hard-court stats: 58.6% games won, 74.9% first-serve points won, 10 aces per match.
• Echargui's overall last15 record is 4-11 (26.7%), with only 43% games won and a 32.1% break-point conversion rate.
• Career hard-court win percentage: Harris 64.1% (304 wins) vs. Echargui 57.9% (242 wins).

Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced

The read

The serving capabilities of both players and Echargui's tendency for tight opening sets on hard courts point to a first set with over 9.5 games.

• Echargui's last hard-court match first set had 10 games (4-6).
• Harris' last 5 hard-court matches averaged 9.6 games in the first set.
• Both players have first-serve points won rates around 65-75%, suggesting holds are common.
• Echargui's recent matches often start with competitive sets (5 of last 10 first sets had 10+ games).

Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced

The read

Harris' consistent hard-court dominance and Echargui's overall negative game differential suggest Harris can cover a -3.5 game handicap, though Echargui's competitiveness in close matches adds risk.

• Harris' average games-won margin in his last 5 hard-court matches is +4.2 games.
• Echargui's average games-won margin in his last 15 matches is -2.3 games.
• Harris has covered a -3.5 game handicap in 4 of his last 5 hard-court wins.
• Echargui's last hard-court match was a 3-set loss with a -0 games differential, but he was outplayed in key moments.

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Market price 1.40

The read

Harris' strong serving and early-set momentum on hard courts, combined with Echargui's poor first-set record, make Harris the likely set1 winner.

• Harris has won the first set in 4 of his last 5 hard-court matches.
• Echargui's first-set win rate in his last 15 matches is only 33% (5 of 15).
• Harris' first-serve points won on hard is 74.9%, compared to Echargui's 65.8% overall.
• Echargui's recent hard-court match (July 14) saw him lose the first set 6-4.

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Market price 1.85

The read

Harris' high ace rate on hard courts and Echargui's above-average ace output in his lone recent hard-court match make over 12.5 total aces likely.

• Harris averages 10 aces per match on hard courts in his last 5 matches.
• Echargui averages 3.8 aces per match overall in his last 15, but had 8 aces in his only recent hard-court match.
• Combined, their recent hard-court ace averages sum to 18 (Harris 10 + Echargui 8).
• Harris' career ace count is 5,542, indicating a strong serve-based game.

Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced

The read

Harris' low double fault rate on hard courts and Echargui's typical average suggest the total double faults will stay under 5.5, though Echargui's outlier 5-DF match adds some risk.

• Harris averages only 2.2 double faults per match on hard courts in his last 5.
• Echargui averages 2.7 double faults per match overall in his last 15, but had 5 in his only recent hard-court match.
• Combined, their recent hard-court double fault averages sum to 4.2 (Harris 2.2 + Echargui 2.0 if we regress his outlier).
• Both players have moderate double fault rates, with Harris particularly disciplined on hard.