Kaitlin Quevedo #100Spain00 – 2Anhelina Kalinina #59Ukraine2

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Market price 1.44

The read

Kalinina's superior return game on clay and higher ranking give her a structural edge, despite Quevedo's strong recent clay form.

• Kalinina career clay win% 63.6% vs Quevedo 68.3%, but Kalinina has far more clay matches (212 wins vs 92).
• Last 15 on clay: Kalinina 6-4 record, 53.3% games won; Quevedo 9-4, 51.3% games won.
• Kalinina return points won on clay last 15: 50.2% vs Quevedo 45.9%.
• Kalinina ranking #59 vs Quevedo #100, and Kalinina is #2 seed.

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Market price 1.83

The read

High break point conversion rates and Quevedo's tendency for longer matches suggest a competitive match exceeding 20.5 games.

• Quevedo last 15 clay matches: avg 23.2 games per match.
• Kalinina last 15 clay matches: avg 18.4 games per match, but 4 of last 5 went over 20.5.
• Both players have high break point conversion rates (Quevedo 41.6%, Kalinina 48.9% on clay last 15).

Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced

The read

Recent first sets have been tight for both, and neither dominates on serve enough to expect a quick set.

• Quevedo last 5 matches: 4 of 5 first sets had 10+ games.
• Kalinina last 5 matches: 3 of 5 first sets had 10+ games.
• Both players have similar first serve points won on clay (Quevedo 62.3%, Kalinina 56.9%).

Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced

The read

Similar to set 1, neither player is likely to run away with the second set given their break point dynamics.

• Quevedo last 5 matches: 3 of 5 second sets had 10+ games.
• Kalinina last 5 matches: 3 of 5 second sets had 10+ games.
• Both players have break point save rates around 55% on clay last 15.

Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced

The read

Kalinina's aggressive return on clay could secure an early break, and Quevedo has been slow starting recently.

• Kalinina first set win% career 89% when winning first set; Quevedo 91%.
• Quevedo lost first set in 3 of last 5 matches; Kalinina lost first set in 2 of last 5.
• Kalinina return points won on clay last 15: 50.2% suggests early break potential.

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced

The read

Both players have low ace counts on clay, making under 5.5 total aces highly likely.

• Quevedo last 15 clay: 2.1 aces per match.
• Kalinina last 15 clay: 0.5 aces per match.
• Combined average aces per match: 2.6 on clay.

Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced

The read

Both players average around 3 double faults per match, and in a competitive match, the total could exceed 6.5.

• Quevedo last 15 clay: 3.2 double faults per match.
• Kalinina last 15 clay: 3.1 double faults per match.
• Combined average double faults: 6.3, but both have had matches with higher counts.