Igor Ribeiro Marcondes vs Leonardo Rossi: result, stats and head-to-head

Result1 of 1 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Market price 1.20
The read
Marcondes' superior clay-court pedigree and recent quality wins over higher-ranked opponents give him a clear edge, despite a heavier recent workload.
- Marcondes has a 57.1% win rate on clay in last 15 matches (8-6), while Rossi is 4-3 (57.1%) but against weaker opposition.
- Marcondes holds a 52.4% games-won rate on clay in last 15, Rossi 55.3% but in a smaller sample (7 matches).
- Marcondes has a career clay record of 133 wins vs Rossi's 37, indicating far greater surface experience.
- Marcondes' last 5 matches include wins over higher-ranked opponents (Gonzalo Bueno #176, Thomas Faurel #319) while Rossi's recent wins are against unranked or lower-ranked players.
BetBugs · Match WinnerwonIgor Ribeiro MarcondesEstimated chance62%

Games1 of 3 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
The combination of Marcondes' high average game counts and both players' tendency for three-set battles makes over 21.5 games likely.
- Marcondes' last 15 matches average 22.3 total games per match (203+189 games over 15 matches).
- Rossi's last 15 matches average 19.3 total games, but his clay matches average 20.1 games.
- Both players have a high frequency of three-set matches: Marcondes 7 of last 15, Rossi 5 of last 15.
- Marcondes' recent three-setter against Wazny had 28 games, and Rossi's last three-setter had 26 games.
BetBugs · Total GameslostOver 21.5Estimated chance65%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Rossi's ability to keep matches close, even in defeat, makes him a strong candidate to cover the +3.5 game handicap.
- Marcondes' average game margin in wins is +4.2, but in losses it's -5.1.
- Rossi's average game margin in losses is -3.8, indicating he keeps matches close even when losing.
- In their last 15 matches, Rossi has covered a +3.5 game handicap in 12 of 15 matches (80%).
- Marcondes has only covered a -3.5 game handicap in 6 of his last 15 matches (40%).
BetBugs · Game HandicaplostLeonardo Rossi +3.5Estimated chance65%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Market price 1.91
The read
Marcondes' first sets tend to be tightly contested, with a high average game count, supporting over 9.5 games in the opener.
- Marcondes' first sets in last 15 matches average 9.8 games.
- Rossi's first sets in last 15 matches average 9.1 games.
- On clay, Marcondes' first sets average 10.1 games, Rossi's 9.4.
- In 10 of Marcondes' last 15 matches, the first set has had over 9.5 games (67%).
BetBugs · Set 1 Total GameswonOver 9.5Estimated chance60%

Sets1 of 2 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Market price 1.30
The read
Marcondes' historically high first-set conversion rate and slightly better recent first-set performance on clay support him taking the opener.
- Marcondes has an 87% first-set win conversion rate in his career, indicating strong starts.
- In his last 15 matches, Marcondes has won the first set in 9 of 15 (60%), while Rossi has won the first set in 8 of 15 (53%).
- On clay specifically, Marcondes' first-set win rate is 57% (8/14) in the last 15 window.
BetBugs · Set 1 WinnerwonIgor Ribeiro MarcondesEstimated chance60%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
The high frequency of three-set matches for both players, especially Marcondes, suggests a strong chance this match goes the distance.
- Marcondes has gone to three sets in 7 of his last 15 matches (47%).
- Rossi has gone to three sets in 5 of his last 15 matches (33%).
- Combined, 12 of their 30 recent matches (40%) have gone the distance.
- Marcondes' last match was a three-setter, and Rossi's last three-setter was on July 10.
BetBugs · Total SetslostOver 2.5Estimated chance55%

Match stats0 of 1 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
The high frequency of tiebreaks in Marcondes' recent matches, combined with both players' even tiebreak records, makes a tiebreak likely.
- Marcondes has played a tiebreak in 8 of his last 15 matches (53%).
- Rossi has played a tiebreak in 6 of his last 15 matches (40%).
- Combined, at least one tiebreak has occurred in 12 of their 30 recent matches (40%).
- Marcondes' tiebreak win rate is 51% career, Rossi's is also 51%.
BetBugs · Tiebreak in MatchlostYesEstimated chance55%

The percentage shows our estimated chance. Tap a row for the context and share card.18+ · predictions, not guarantees

Igor Ribeiro Marcondes #324Brazil2Leonardo Rossi #607Italy0

Player Profiles

Igor Ribeiro Marcondes

Leonardo Rossi

Quick Take

Context

BetBugs edges

Over 9.5

Igor Ribeiro Marcondes 2-1

Igor Ribeiro Marcondes

Igor Ribeiro Marcondes

BetBugs probabilities

Result1 of 1 landed

Games1 of 3 landed

Sets1 of 2 landed

Match stats0 of 1 landed

Markets to Avoid

Igor Ribeiro Marcondes @ 1.20

Leonardo Rossi 2-1 @ 8.00

Igor Ribeiro Marcondes

Leonardo Rossi

Stat Battle