Henrique Rocha #124Portugal00 – 2Pedro Martinez Portero #157Spain2

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Market price 2.10

The read

Martinez's superior clay pedigree, recent Estoril final, and current qualifying form give him a slight edge over Rocha, despite Rocha's home advantage and direct entry freshness.

• Martinez has a 50% win rate on clay in last 14 matches (7-7), while Rocha is 54.5% (6-5) in last 11 clay matches.
• Martinez's career clay win percentage is 376-? (approx 58.5% overall), with 376 clay wins vs Rocha's 93 clay wins, indicating far greater clay experience.
• Martinez reached the Estoril final in 2024, showing proven site comfort on these courts.
• Martinez's recent form includes a dominant 6-0 6-4 qualifying win over Jorda Sanchis on 19 July, giving him live clay reps.

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Market price 1.91

The read

Both players tend to play tight opening sets on clay, making over 9.5 games likely.

• Rocha's last 15 first sets average 9.8 games, with 10 of 15 first sets having 10+ games.
• Martinez's last 15 first sets average 9.3 games, with 8 of 15 first sets having 10+ games.
• On clay, Rocha's first sets average 10.1 games in last 11 matches.
• Martinez's clay first sets average 9.6 games in last 14 matches.

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced

The read

Both players' recent match lengths and competitive clay-court styles point to a match likely exceeding 21.5 games.

• Rocha's last 15 matches average 24.0 total games per match (360 games/15 matches).
• Martinez's last 15 matches average 22.4 total games per match (336 games/15 matches).
• Both players have a high percentage of matches going over 21.5 games in recent clay events.
• Rocha's matches often feature tight sets, with 6 of his last 11 clay matches having at least one tiebreak or 7-5 set.

Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced

The read

Second sets have been competitive for both, with a slight lean toward over 9.5 games.

• Rocha's second sets in last 15 matches average 9.7 games, with 9 of 15 having 10+ games.
• Martinez's second sets average 9.1 games, with 7 of 15 having 10+ games.
• On clay, Rocha's second sets average 9.8 games, Martinez's 9.3 games.

Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced

The read

Martinez's momentum from qualifying and Rocha's recent first-set struggles suggest Martinez is slightly more likely to take the opener.

• Martinez won his last two first sets 6-0 and 6-3 in qualifying, showing strong starts.
• Rocha's first-set win conversion rate is 86% career, but his recent first-set performance is mixed (lost first set in 3 of last 5 matches).
• Martinez's first-serve points won on clay in last 14 matches is 63.7%, slightly lower than Rocha's 70.2%, but Martinez's return points won is 40.3% vs Rocha's 39.6%.

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced

The read

Both players are low ace producers on clay, making under 5.5 total aces highly probable.

• Rocha averages 1.9 aces per match in last 15, with only 2 matches exceeding 5 aces.
• Martinez averages 0.9 aces per match in last 15, with no match exceeding 3 aces.
• On clay, Rocha averages 2.0 aces, Martinez 0.9 aces per match.
• Combined average aces per match is 2.8, well under 5.5.

Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced

The read

Rocha's high double-fault rate is the primary driver for over 5.5 total double faults, though Martinez's low rate keeps confidence low.

• Rocha averages 4.0 double faults per match in last 15, with 10 of 15 matches having 4+ double faults.
• Martinez averages 1.2 double faults per match in last 15, with only 2 matches exceeding 2 double faults.
• Combined average is 5.2 double faults per match, but Rocha's high rate pushes the total over 5.5 in many matches.
• On clay, Rocha averages 3.9 double faults, Martinez 1.2.