SwitzerlandATP GstaadFinishedFeatured

Predictions graded

Stefanos Tsitsipas #85Greece2Raphael Collignon #42Belgium1

Sets 6-4 · 6-7 · 6-3Sun 19 Jul 2026, 09:43 Predictions gradedFinalClay

Predictions7–188%

Edges6–186%

Player Profiles

Ranking advantageRaphael Collignon · 43 places

Stefanos Tsitsipas

Greece

Former world No. 3. He said in January 2026 that back pain made much of his 2025 season difficult, and his 2026 campaign has been framed as a comeback from that injury-hit stretch.

Current ranking: #85
Peak ranking: #3 · 2021
Current age: 27
Preferred surface: —
Hand: Right handed
Height: 193 cm

Raphael Collignon

Belgium

24-year-old Belgian coached by Steve Darcis. His 2026 rise has included a Bordeaux Challenger 175 final and a straight-sets upset of Ben Shelton at Roland Garros before this Gstaad final run.

Current ranking: #42
Peak ranking: —
Current age: 24
Preferred surface: —
Hand: Right handed
Height: 191 cm

Quick Take

Pre-match view

Context last updated 18 Jul 2026, 22:36 · Europe/Bucharest

Tsitsipas' clay-court pedigree and deciding-set resilience give him the edge over Collignon, who has battled through four consecutive three-setters.

Expect a tight, extended match with value on Tsitsipas 2-1, over 2.5 sets, and over 22.5 total games. Collignon's serve and tiebreak prowess will keep it close, but Tsitsipas' experience should seal the title.

Context

Beat Jerome Kym 6-4, 6-7(2), 7-6(5) in a match suspended overnight.
- Beat Arthur Rinderknech 6-3, 3-6, 6-3 on 17 July.
- Beat Alexander Shevchenko 6-4, 3-6, 6-3 on 18 July.
Beat Timofey Skatov 3-6, 7-6(1), 6-4 on 13 July.
- Beat Lorenzo Sonego 7-6(2), 7-6(5) on 15 July.
- Beat Valentin Vacherot 7-6(7), 4-6, 7-5 on 17 July.
- Beat Juan Manuel Cerundolo 1-6, 7-6(5), 7-5 on 18 July.
Tsitsipas vs Shevchenko ended 6-4, 3-6, 6-3 on 18 July.
- Collignon vs Cerundolo ended 1-6, 7-6(5), 7-5 on 18 July.
- Final is scheduled for 11:30 local time on 19 July.

BetBugs edges

Compare BetBugs' chances with the market's.

Positive edges · 6

BetBugs probabilities

How likely BetBugs thought each outcome was.

Result1 of 1 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Market price 1.80
The read
Tsitsipas' superior clay pedigree and experience in high-stakes matches give him the edge, despite Collignon's strong recent form.
- Tsitsipas has a 66.7% clay win rate in last 15 (8-4 record), while Collignon is at 75% (6-2) but against weaker opposition.
- Career clay win percentage: Tsitsipas 211 wins vs Collignon 132, with Tsitsipas having far more elite clay experience.
- Tsitsipas holds a 60% deciding set win rate in last 15, showing resilience in tight matches, while Collignon is at 52% career.
BetBugs · Match WinnerwonStefanos TsitsipasEstimated chance65%

Games3 of 4 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Market price 1.80
The read
Recent first sets for both players have consistently gone over 9.5 games, driven by tight scorelines and tiebreaks.
- Tsitsipas' last five first sets: 6-4, 6-3, 6-4, 6-4, 3-6 (avg 9.8 games).
- Collignon's last five first sets: 1-6, 7-6, 7-6, 3-6, 5-7 (avg 10.6 games).
- Both players have high tiebreak rates, increasing the chance of a 7-6 or 6-4 set.
BetBugs · Set 1 Total GameswonOver 9.5Estimated chance65%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Market price 1.80
The read
With both players involved in extended matches and showing strong tiebreak records, the total games are likely to exceed 22.5.
- Tsitsipas' last three matches averaged 29.3 games, Collignon's last four averaged 30.5 games.
- Both players have high tiebreak rates: Tsitsipas 58% career tiebreak win, Collignon 62%.
- In Bo3 clay matches, Tsitsipas averages 22.1 games per match in last 15, Collignon 22.3.
BetBugs · Total GameswonOver 22.5Estimated chance60%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Market price 1.80
The read
Second sets have been closely contested for both, with multiple tiebreaks and 6-4 scorelines, making over 9.5 likely.
- Tsitsipas' last five second sets: 3-6, 3-6, 6-7, 6-4, 6-4 (avg 10.0 games).
- Collignon's last five second sets: 7-6, 4-6, 7-6, 7-6, 6-1 (avg 10.2 games).
- Both players have shown resilience in second sets, often forcing tiebreaks or extended games.
BetBugs · Set 2 Total GameswonOver 9.5Estimated chance60%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Market price 1.50
The read
Collignon's ability to keep matches close, even in losses, suggests he will cover a +3.5 game handicap against Tsitsipas.
- Collignon's last four matches were decided by 2, 1, 2, and 2 games respectively.
- Tsitsipas' last three wins were by 2, 3, and 2 games.
- In Bo3 clay matches, Collignon's average game differential is -0.2 in last 15, Tsitsipas' +1.2.
BetBugs · Game HandicaplostRaphael Collignon +3.5Estimated chance60%

Sets1 of 1 landed

Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Tsitsipas' slight edge in starting strong in big matches, combined with his experience, gives him a narrow advantage in set 1.
- Tsitsipas has won the first set in 8 of his last 15 matches (53%), Collignon in 9 of 15 (60%).
- Tsitsipas' first set win conversion rate is 89% career, Collignon also 89%.
- In their last five matches, Tsitsipas won first set 3 times, Collignon 3 times.
BetBugs · Set 1 WinnerwonStefanos TsitsipasEstimated chance55%

Match stats1 of 1 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
High tiebreak frequency for both players, especially Collignon, and tight match dynamics make a tiebreak likely.
- Tsitsipas has played a tiebreak in 6 of his last 15 matches (40%), Collignon in 8 of 15 (53%).
- Both have strong tiebreak records: Tsitsipas 58% career, Collignon 62%.
- In Gstaad, Collignon has played tiebreaks in 3 of 4 matches, Tsitsipas in 1 of 3.
BetBugs · Tiebreak in MatchwonYesEstimated chance65%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Collignon's propensity for double faults, especially in long matches, makes over 6.5 total double faults probable.
- Collignon averages 5.8 double faults per match on clay in last 15, Tsitsipas 1.9.
- Combined average double faults: 7.7 per match on clay.
- Collignon's high double fault rate is a consistent pattern, especially in pressure situations.
BetBugs · Total Double FaultsOver 6.5Estimated chance60%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Collignon's high ace count on clay, combined with Tsitsipas' moderate ace rate, pushes the total over 12.5 in a likely three-set match.
- Tsitsipas averages 5.7 aces per match on clay in last 15, Collignon 9.8.
- Combined average aces per match: 15.5 on clay in recent window.
- Collignon's ace rate is elevated on clay (9.8 per match), Tsitsipas' is lower but consistent.
BetBugs · Total AcesOver 12.5Estimated chance55%

Stefanos Tsitsipas

9W 6L

6-4 3-6 6-3#100Alexander Shevchenko

6-3 3-6 6-3#28Arthur Rinderknech

6-4 6-7(2) 7-6(5)#186Jerome Kym

6-4 6-4#33Ignacio Buse

6-3 6-4 6-2#7Novak Djokovic

6-1 6-4 6-2#107Hugo Gaston

7-6(4) 6-3#33Ignacio Buse

7-6(2) 5-7 6-3 6-2#34Matteo Arnaldi

6-2 3-0 ret.#132Alexandre Muller

7-6(4) 7-6(2)#15Learner Tien

6-4 7-6(8)#89Giovanni Mpetshi Perricard

6-4 7-6(4)#53Tomas Machac

6-7(4) 7-6(2) 7-6(3)#13Casper Ruud

6-4 6-2#82Daniel Merida Aguilar

6-2 7-5#11Alexander Bublik

Raphael Collignon

10W 5L

1-6 7-6(5) 7-5#45Juan Manuel Cerundolo

7-6(7) 4-6 7-5#21Valentin Vacherot

7-6(2) 7-6(5)#83Lorenzo Sonego

3-6 7-6(1) 6-4#163Timofey Skatov

7-5 6-1 6-3#23Arthur Fils

6-4 4-6 7-6(5)#45Juan Manuel Cerundolo

7-6(10) 7-6(2)#2Alexander Zverev

4-6 6-4 6-3#80Mattia Bellucci

6-4 6-2#103Alexei Popyrin

6-2 6-4#180Roberto Bautista Agut

6-4 6-2#644Aziz Dougaz

6-4 6-7(5) 5-7 6-4 7-6(4)#34Matteo Arnaldi

6-4 7-5 6-4#6Ben Shelton

6-3 6-3 7-6(4)#113Aleksandar Vukic

7-6(2) 6-2#13Casper Ruud

Stat Battle

Last 15 match performance, compared side by side.

STStefanos TsitsipasTsitsipas

Last 15

3–3

9 core stats · 3 even

Raphael CollignonCollignonRC

Dead-even recent form — the edges are in serve.

Serve · 2–2 · 1 even

1st Serve In63.0%+1.5pp64.5%

1st Serve Won78.6%—78.4%

2nd Serve Won55.3%+6.7pp48.6%

Aces / Match6.8+2.49.2

Double Faults / Match1.93.3 fewer5.2

Return · 0–0 · 1 even

Return Pts Won33.3%—32.9%

Pressure · 1–1

Break Pts Converted34.1%+7.3pp41.4%

Break Pts Saved71.0%+5.1pp65.9%

Points · 0–0 · 1 even

Total Pts Won51.0%—50.5%

Serve · 2–2 · 1 even

63.0%1st Serve In+1.5pp64.5%

78.6%1st Serve Won—78.4%

55.3%2nd Serve Won+6.7pp48.6%

6.8Aces / Match+2.49.2

1.9Double Faults / Match3.3 fewer5.2

Return · 0–0 · 1 even

33.3%Return Pts Won—32.9%

Pressure · 1–1

34.1%Break Pts Converted+7.3pp41.4%

71.0%Break Pts Saved+5.1pp65.9%

Points · 0–0 · 1 even

51.0%Total Pts Won—50.5%

Stefanos Tsitsipas #85Greece2Raphael Collignon #42Belgium1

Player Profiles

Stefanos Tsitsipas

Raphael Collignon

Quick Take

Context

BetBugs edges

Stefanos Tsitsipas

Over 9.5

Over 2.5

Over 22.5

Over 9.5

Stefanos Tsitsipas 2-1

Raphael Collignon +3.5

BetBugs probabilities

Result1 of 1 landed

Games3 of 4 landed

Sets1 of 1 landed

Match stats1 of 1 landed

Stefanos Tsitsipas

Raphael Collignon

Stat Battle