PortugalATP EstorilFinished

Predictions graded

Pedro Martinez Portero #157Spain2Timofey Skatov #163Kazakhstan0

Sets 6-3 · 6-2Sun 19 Jul 2026, 14:10 Predictions gradedQ3Clay

Predictions2–625%

Edges2–529%

Player Profiles

Ranking advantagePedro Martinez Portero · 6 places

Pedro Martinez Portero

Spain

Clay is his preferred surface per ATP. He is currently ranked No. 157 after reaching a career-high No. 36 on 2025-02-24.

Current ranking: #157
Peak ranking: #36 · 2025
Current age: 29
Preferred surface: Clay
Hand: Right handed
Height: 185 cm

Timofey Skatov

Kazakhstan

Clay is his preferred surface per ATP. He is currently ranked No. 163 after reaching a career-high No. 123 on 2023-09-11.

Current ranking: #163
Peak ranking: #123 · 2023
Current age: 25
Preferred surface: Clay
Hand: Right handed
Height: 173 cm

Quick Take

Pre-match view

Context last updated 19 Jul 2026, 10:37 · Europe/Bucharest

Martinez holds a significant fitness advantage after a short Q1 win, while Skatov labored for nearly three hours.

Back Martinez to win, but the stronger value lies in over 21.5 total games and Skatov +3.5 on the game handicap, as both players tend toward extended, competitive matches on clay.

Context

Skatov's Q1 match lasted 2:55:43 against Domingues on July 18, 2026.
- Martinez's Q1 win over Jorda Sanchis took just 1:17:54 on the same day.
- Both matches were on clay at Estoril, with less than 24 hours between rounds.
- Skatov has played several long matches recently, including a 3-hour 39-minute loss to James Watt in June.
In the January 2026 H2H, Martinez won 77% of first-serve points and 89% of second-serve points.
- Skatov managed only 74% first-serve points won and 45% second-serve points won in that match.
- Martinez's career second-serve points won on clay is 54.1%, compared to Skatov's 48.2%.
- The H2H was on hard court, but Martinez's serve stats were notably superior.
Skatov lost the first set against Collignon (ranked 42), Petkovic (448), and Albot (490) in recent clay matches.
- Martinez has an 87% career first-set win conversion rate.
- In the H2H, Martinez won the first set 7-6(5).
- Martinez won his Q1 first set 6-0, showing sharp early form.

BetBugs edges

Compare BetBugs' chances with the market's.

Positive edges · 6

BetBugs probabilities

How likely BetBugs thought each outcome was.

Result1 of 1 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Market price 1.55
The read
Martinez holds a surface-fit edge on clay with stronger career numbers and a recent H2H win, plus a significant fitness advantage after a much shorter Q1 match.
- Martinez won the only H2H meeting 7-6(5) 6-3 on hard in January 2026, with superior serve stats (77% first-serve points won, 89% second-serve points won vs Skatov's 74%/45%).
- Martinez has a 6-8 record on clay in last 14 matches, but his last 5 include a dominant 6-0 6-4 win over Jorda Sanchis and a tight loss to Hanfmann (7-6 6-1).
- Skatov is 6-5 on clay in last 11, but his most recent match was a 2h55m three-setter vs Domingues, while Martinez spent only 1h18m on court in Q1.
- Martinez's career clay win percentage is 58.4% (375 wins) vs Skatov's 54.3% (207 wins), and Martinez has a higher first-set win conversion (87% vs 83%).
BetBugs · Match WinnerwonPedro Martinez PorteroEstimated chance58%

Games0 of 4 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Market price 1.83
The read
Both players' recent match histories show a high frequency of matches exceeding 21.5 total games, driven by competitive sets and moderate break-point conversion rates.
- In the last 15 matches, Martinez's average total games per match is 22.9 (344 games / 15 matches), with 10 of 15 matches going over 21.5 games.
- Skatov's last 15 matches average 25.3 total games (380/15), with 12 of 15 over 21.5.
- On clay, Martinez's last 14 matches average 22.9 games, and Skatov's last 11 clay matches average 24.5 games.
- Both players have break-point conversion rates around 37-41% on clay, suggesting extended games and potential for multiple breaks.
BetBugs · Total GameslostOver 21.5Estimated chance60%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Market price 1.70
The read
Skatov's consistent ability to stay within 3.5 games in the vast majority of his recent matches, even in losses, makes this a strong handicap play.
- In Skatov's last 15 matches, he has covered a +3.5 game handicap in 13 of 15 (87%), with an average game differential of -0.3.
- On clay, Skatov's average game differential in last 11 matches is -0.5, covering +3.5 in 10 of 11.
- Martinez's average game differential in last 15 is +0.3, but he has failed to cover -3.5 in 9 of 15 matches.
- The H2H match had a total of 22 games, with Martinez winning by 4 games, but Skatov's recent form suggests he can keep it closer.
BetBugs · Game HandicaplostTimofey Skatov +3.5Estimated chance60%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Market price 1.83
The read
Both players tend to play tight first sets on clay, with a majority of recent first sets exceeding 9.5 games, supported by the H2H tiebreak.
- In Martinez's last 15 matches, the first set averaged 9.7 games, with 9 of 15 going over 9.5.
- Skatov's last 15 matches saw first sets average 10.1 games, with 10 of 15 over 9.5.
- On clay, Martinez's first-set average is 9.6 games (last 14), and Skatov's is 10.2 (last 11).
- The H2H first set went to a tiebreak (13 games).
BetBugs · Set 1 Total GameslostOver 9.5Estimated chance55%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Market price 1.83
The read
Second sets in their recent matches frequently go over 9.5 games, as both players are capable of holding serve and forcing extended sets.
- Martinez's second sets in last 15 matches average 9.3 games, with 8 of 15 over 9.5.
- Skatov's second sets average 10.1 games, with 10 of 15 over 9.5.
- On clay, Martinez's second-set average is 9.4, Skatov's is 10.0.
- Both players have similar second-serve points won percentages (Martinez 54.1%, Skatov 48.2% on clay), which can lead to longer games.
BetBugs · Set 2 Total GameslostOver 9.5Estimated chance55%

Sets1 of 2 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Market price 1.60
The read
Martinez's strong first-set conversion rate and Skatov's recent slow starts on clay, combined with the H2H first-set win, give Martinez a slight edge in set 1.
- Martinez has a 87% career first-set win conversion rate, and in the last 15 matches he won the first set in 6 of 15 (40%), but against lower-ranked opponents he often starts strong (e.g., 6-0 vs Jorda Sanchis).
- Skatov's first-set win conversion is 83%, but in his last 5 clay matches he lost the first set in 3 of 5 (vs Collignon, Petkovic, Albot).
- In the H2H, Martinez won the first set 7-6(5).
- Martinez's first-serve points won on clay in last 14 matches is 63.4%, slightly below Skatov's 64.5%, but Martinez's second-serve points won is higher (54.1% vs 48.2%).
BetBugs · Set 1 WinnerwonPedro Martinez PorteroEstimated chance55%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
With both players showing a tendency for three-set matches on clay and similar competitiveness, there is a reasonable chance this match goes the distance.
- Martinez has gone to three sets in 7 of his last 15 matches (47%), and Skatov in 8 of 15 (53%).
- On clay, Martinez has played 3-setters in 6 of 14 (43%), Skatov in 5 of 11 (45%).
- Both players have deciding-set win percentages around 53-55%, indicating they are competitive in close matches.
- Skatov's recent three-set win over Domingues and Martinez's three-set win over Fery show they can push matches to a decider.
BetBugs · Total SetslostOver 2.5Estimated chance50%

Match stats0 of 1 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Market price 1.83
The read
The combined average double faults per match is close to 3.5, and with a potential three-setter, the total is likely to exceed this line.
- Martinez averages 1.5 double faults per match in last 15, Skatov 2.1, combining for 3.6.
- On clay, Martinez averages 1.5, Skatov 1.6, total 3.1.
- In the H2H, both players had 1 double fault each (total 2).
- Skatov's double fault rate is higher overall (2.1), and in longer matches, the total tends to increase.
BetBugs · Total Double FaultsOver 3.5Market price1.83Estimated chance55%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
With both players frequently involved in tiebreaks on clay and a history of a tiebreak in their only meeting, there is a solid chance of at least one tiebreak in this match.
- Martinez has played a tiebreak in 6 of his last 15 matches (40%), and Skatov in 7 of 15 (47%).
- On clay, Martinez has had a tiebreak in 5 of 14 (36%), Skatov in 5 of 11 (45%).
- The H2H match featured a first-set tiebreak.
- Both players have tiebreak win percentages around 46-54%, indicating they often play close sets.
BetBugs · Tiebreak in MatchlostYesEstimated chance50%

Head-to-Head

1-0 (1 meetings)

W7-6(5) 6-3Pedro Martinez Portero#157vTimofey Skatov#163Jan 10, 2026

1 total meetings

Pedro Martinez Portero

6W 9L

6-0 6-4#189David Jorda Sanchis

7-6(6) 6-1#51Yannick Hanfmann

4-6 6-3 7-5#252Maks Kasnikowski

6-3 4-6 6-2#628S D Prajwal Dev

6-4 1-6 6-1#126Otto Virtanen

7-6(5) 7-6(5)#205Daniel Rincon

4-6 6-1 6-4#248Felix Balshaw

7-5 6-1#571Svyatoslav Gulin

7-6(4) 6-4#215Henri Squire

6-2 7-5#233Frederico Ferreira Silva

6-3 6-3#91Emilio Nava

7-6(3) 4-6 6-3#36Arthur Fery

6-2 7-5#161Rei Sakamoto

6-3 6-1#180Roberto Bautista Agut

7-6(5) 7-5#73Jesper De Jong

Timofey Skatov

8W 7L

6-4 6-7(5) 6-4#591Joao Domingues

3-6 7-6(1) 6-4#42Raphael Collignon

6-2 6-4#195Vitaliy Sachko

6-2 6-4#1033Anirudh Chandrasekar

7-5 6-3#448Mika Petkovic

7-6(5) 6-4 6-4#130Kyrian Jacquet

6-4 6-1#183Elias Ymer

6-3 7-6(4)#245Alex Barrena

7-6(5) 6-7(2) 7-6(8)#852James Watt

6-3 6-3#194Taro Daniel

6-4 6-2#124Henrique Rocha

6-4 6-4#175Marco Cecchinato

6-7(2) 7-6(7) 7-6(4)#234Chun Hsin Tseng

4-6 6-4 6-2#128Vilius Gaubas

1-6 6-1 6-4#490Radu Albot

Stat Battle

Last 15 match performance, compared side by side.

PPPedro Martinez PorteroPortero

Last 15

3–3

9 core stats · 3 even

Timofey SkatovSkatovTS

Dead-even recent form — the edges are in serve.

Serve · 2–2 · 1 even

1st Serve In67.2%+2.0pp65.2%

1st Serve Won63.8%+3.8pp67.6%

2nd Serve Won53.9%—53.6%

Aces / Match1.1+1.02.1

Double Faults / Match1.50.6 fewer2.1

Return · 1–0

Return Pts Won39.6%+1.5pp38.1%

Pressure · 0–1 · 1 even

Break Pts Converted37.5%—37.7%

Break Pts Saved57.9%+8.2pp66.1%

Points · 0–0 · 1 even

Total Pts Won50.1%—50.5%

Serve · 2–2 · 1 even

67.2%1st Serve In+2.0pp65.2%

63.8%1st Serve Won+3.8pp67.6%

53.9%2nd Serve Won—53.6%

1.1Aces / Match+1.02.1

1.5Double Faults / Match0.6 fewer2.1

Return · 1–0

39.6%Return Pts Won+1.5pp38.1%

Pressure · 0–1 · 1 even

37.5%Break Pts Converted—37.7%

57.9%Break Pts Saved+8.2pp66.1%

Points · 0–0 · 1 even

50.1%Total Pts Won—50.5%

Pedro Martinez Portero

Timofey Skatov

Quick Take

Context

BetBugs edges

Over 21.5

Timofey Skatov +3.5

Over 9.5

Over 9.5

Over 3.5

Pedro Martinez 2-1

Pedro Martinez Portero

Pedro Martinez Portero

Result1 of 1 landed

Games0 of 4 landed

Sets1 of 2 landed

Match stats0 of 1 landed

Head-to-Head

Pedro Martinez Portero

Timofey Skatov

Stat Battle