Igor Ribeiro Marcondes #324Brazil22 – 1Alan Wazny #867Poland1

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Market price 1.22

The read

Marcondes' superior ranking, extensive clay experience, and higher quality of recent opposition give him a clear edge, though his post-surgery form adds uncertainty.

• Marcondes has a 57.1% win rate on clay in last 15 matches (8-6), while Wazny is 61.5% (8-5) but against weaker opposition.
• Marcondes holds a 51.8% games-won rate in last 15 overall, slightly below Wazny's 53.1%, but Marcondes faced higher-ranked opponents (avg rank ~300 vs ~500).
• Marcondes' career clay win percentage is 63.8% (132 wins) vs Wazny's 44.2% overall, indicating a significant experience and surface edge.
• Marcondes' recent knee surgery (38 days post-op as of June 23) is a concern, but he has already played 5 matches since return, winning 3, suggesting reasonable recovery.

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Market price 1.91

The read

High first-serve effectiveness and competitive starts in recent matches make a 10+ game first set likely.

• Marcondes' last 15 first sets average 10.1 games (median 10), with 11 of 15 first sets having 10+ games.
• Wazny's last 15 first sets average 9.3 games, but 9 of 15 had 10+ games.
• Both players have strong first-serve win percentages (Marcondes 68.1%, Wazny 64.4% in last 15), making breaks less frequent early.

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced

The read

Both players frequently engage in three-set battles on clay, pushing total games above 21.5 in most of their recent matches.

• Marcondes' last 15 matches average 25.6 games per match (384 total games / 15 matches).
• Wazny's last 15 matches average 22.6 games per match (339 total games / 15 matches).
• Both players have a high rate of three-set matches: Marcondes 7 of last 15 went to deciding set, Wazny 8 of last 15.
• Clay surface tends to produce longer rallies and more games, with Marcondes' clay matches averaging 25.9 games in last 14.

Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced

The read

The competitive nature of this matchup suggests a close second set, but lower confidence due to variability in set scores.

• Marcondes' last 15 second sets average 9.7 games, with 9 of 15 having 10+ games.
• Wazny's last 15 second sets average 9.1 games, with 8 of 15 having 10+ games.
• In matches where the first set is close, the second set often remains tight as both players adjust.

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced

The read

With both players frequently going the distance and no dominant H2H history, a three-set match is more likely than not.

• Marcondes has played 7 three-set matches in his last 15 (46.7%).
• Wazny has played 8 three-set matches in his last 15 (53.3%).
• Both players have deciding-set win rates near 50% (Marcondes 55% career, Wazny 44% career), indicating they often push matches to a third.

Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced

The read

Marcondes' strong first-set conversion and Wazny's low comeback rate suggest Marcondes is likely to take the opener, though Wazny's recent first-set success keeps confidence low.

• Marcondes has won the first set in 8 of his last 15 matches (53.3%), while Wazny has won it in 9 of 15 (60%).
• Marcondes' first-set win conversion rate is 87% career, indicating he often closes out matches when winning the opener.
• Wazny's first-set win conversion is 76%, but his overall record when losing the first set is poor (15% comeback rate).

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced

The read

The combined double fault rate comfortably exceeds 4.5, making the over a strong play regardless of match length.

• Marcondes averages 2.4 double faults per match in last 15, Wazny 2.7.
• Combined average is 5.1 double faults per match.
• Both players have double fault rates above 2 per match consistently, with Wazny's 2.7 being particularly high.

Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced

The read

The combined ace average hovers around the line, and a three-set match would likely see enough service winners to clear 5.5.

• Marcondes averages 3.5 aces per match in last 15, Wazny 2.3.
• Combined average is 5.8 aces per match, slightly above the line.
• Clay reduces ace counts, but both players have moderate ace rates that could push the total over in a three-set match.