SpainPozoblanco - SpainFinished

Predictions graded

Chris Rodesch #191Luxembourg2Ilya Ivashka #554Belarus1

Sets 6-4 · 2-6 · 7-6Sun 19 Jul 2026, 20:56 Predictions gradedFinalHard

Predictions5–363%

Edges1–233%

Player Profiles

Ranking advantageChris Rodesch · 363 places

Chris Rodesch

Luxembourg

Reached a career-high No. 138 on 2026-02-02 during his 2026 Challenger rise. ATP's February 2026 feature says his 2019 Guillain-Barre illness no longer causes complications.

Current ranking: #191
Peak ranking: #138 · 2026
Current age: 25
Preferred surface: —
Hand: Right handed
Height: 198 cm

Ilya Ivashka

Belarus

Former ATP No. 40, reached on 2022-06-20. The clearest current signal is his qualifier run to the Pozoblanco final rather than any new injury or coaching-change story in the exact search set.

Current ranking: #554
Peak ranking: #40 · 2022
Current age: 32
Preferred surface: Hard
Hand: Right handed
Height: 193 cm

Quick Take

Pre-match view

Context last updated 19 Jul 2026, 11:20 · Europe/Bucharest

Ilya Ivashka's superior hard-court experience and return stats give him the edge over Chris Rodesch, despite fatigue from six matches in Pozoblanco.

The final is expected to be tight, with value on Ivashka to win, over 21.5 total games, and Rodesch +3.5 games on the handicap.

Context

Ivashka's quarterfinal lasted 2:29 and semifinal 2:42, both on 17-18 July.
- Rodesch's semifinal on 18 July took only 1:03, giving him a recovery edge.
- Ivashka has played 12 sets in six days; Rodesch has played 10 sets in four matches with a day off.
Ivashka return points won: 42.8% vs Rodesch 34.5% in last 15 on hard.
- Ivashka break conversion: 43.2% vs Rodesch 34.8%.
- Ivashka has 222 career hard-court wins; Rodesch has 48.

BetBugs edges

Compare BetBugs' chances with the market's.

BetBugs probabilities

How likely BetBugs thought each outcome was.

Result0 of 1 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Market price 2.50
The read
Ivashka's superior return stats and extensive hard-court experience give him a structural edge, despite Rodesch's perfect recent hard-court record in a small sample.
- Ivashka last 15 on hard: 12-3 record, 74.3% sets won, 59.8% games won, 55.5% total points won.
- Rodesch last 15 on hard: 4-0 record, 80% sets won, 56% games won, 53.3% total points won, but small sample.
- Ivashka return points won 42.8% vs Rodesch 34.5% in last 15 on hard; Ivashka break conversion 43.2% vs Rodesch 34.8%.
- Ivashka career hard-court wins: 222; Rodesch career hard-court wins: 48.
BetBugs · Match WinnerlostIlya IvashkaEstimated chance62%

Games3 of 4 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Rodesch's matches tend to be longer, and Ivashka's recent tight contests suggest a competitive final likely exceeding 21.5 games.
- Rodesch last 15 on hard: average 27.3 games per match; Ivashka last 15 on hard: average 21.4 games per match.
- Rodesch's last 4 hard-court matches: 27, 37, 20, 33 games.
- Ivashka's last 5 matches: 34, 29, 13, 12, 20 games; recent tight three-setters.
BetBugs · Total GameswonOver 21.5Estimated chance65%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Rodesch's ability to stay competitive in matches, even in losses, makes a +3.5 game handicap a solid cover.
- Rodesch last 15 on hard: average game differential +3.0; Ivashka last 15 on hard: average game differential +4.7.
- Rodesch's tight matches suggest he can keep it close even if he loses.
- Ivashka's recent wins include several dominant scorelines, but Rodesch has been competitive against similar opposition.
BetBugs · Game HandicapwonChris Rodesch +3.5Estimated chance65%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Market price 1.91
The read
Both players are strong starters, making a tight first set likely, pushing the total over 9.5 games.
- Rodesch last 15 on hard: first set average 10.3 games; Ivashka last 15 on hard: first set average 9.7 games.
- Both players have strong first-set win percentages, indicating tight opening sets.
- In 4 of Rodesch's last 5 matches, first set had at least 10 games.
BetBugs · Set 1 Total GameswonOver 9.5Estimated chance60%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
If the first set is competitive, the second set often remains close, with both players capable of extending it beyond 9.5 games.
- Rodesch last 15 on hard: second set average 10.5 games; Ivashka last 15 on hard: second set average 9.3 games.
- Ivashka's last 5 matches: second set games: 8, 7, 6, 4, 7; Rodesch's last 5: 7, 13, 13, 10, 6.
- Potential for a closer second set if first set is tight.
BetBugs · Set 2 Total GameslostOver 9.5Estimated chance55%

Sets1 of 2 landed

Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Both players start strong, but Ivashka's larger sample of first-set success on hard courts suggests a slight edge.
- Ivashka first-set win conversion career: 87%; Rodesch: 91%.
- Ivashka last 15 on hard: won first set in 11 of 15 matches (73%).
- Rodesch last 15 on hard: won first set in all 4 matches (100%), but small sample.
BetBugs · Set 1 WinnerlostIlya IvashkaEstimated chance58%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
Given the competitive nature of the final and both players' recent three-set battles, a deciding set is a plausible outcome.
- Rodesch last 15 on hard: 2 of 4 matches went to 3 sets; Ivashka last 15 on hard: 5 of 15 went to 3 sets.
- Rodesch deciding set win percentage career: 69%; Ivashka: 54%.
- Both players have shown resilience in tight matches this tournament.
BetBugs · Total SetswonOver 2.5Estimated chance50%

Match stats1 of 1 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Both players have solid ace counts on hard courts, and their combined average exceeds the 11.5 line.
- Rodesch last 15 on hard: 7.0 aces per match; Ivashka last 15 on hard: 5.1 aces per match.
- Combined average aces per match: 12.1.
- Rodesch's height (198 cm) and first-serve points won (78.4% on hard) support ace potential.
BetBugs · Total AcesOver 11.5Estimated chance60%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Rodesch's high frequency of tiebreaks on hard courts and the competitive nature of the match make a tiebreak likely.
- Rodesch career tiebreak win percentage: 55%; Ivashka: 49%.
- Rodesch last 15 on hard: 3 tiebreaks in 4 matches; Ivashka last 15 on hard: 4 tiebreaks in 15 matches.
- Both players have played tiebreaks in this tournament.
BetBugs · Tiebreak in MatchwonYesEstimated chance60%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
The combined double fault average is close to 5.5, and pressure in a final could push it over.
- Rodesch last 15 on hard: 2.3 double faults per match; Ivashka last 15 on hard: 2.9 double faults per match.
- Combined average: 5.2 double faults per match.
- Ivashka's second-serve points won (59%) suggests some vulnerability leading to double faults.
BetBugs · Total Double FaultsOver 5.5Estimated chance55%

Chris Rodesch

8W 7L

6-3 6-4#301Akira Santillan

5-7 7-6(3) 7-5#235Oliver Crawford

6-1 7-6(4)#825Paul Inchauspe

7-6(9) 4-6 6-4#311Mert Alkaya

6-2 6-4#152Dusan Lajovic

6-7(4) 6-1 6-4#263Florent Bax

6-3 6-4#146Grigor Dimitrov

7-6(7) 7-5#109Bu Yunchaokete

6-2 7-6(4)#134Leandro Riedi

6-7(0) 6-3 7-5#75Jan Choinski

6-1 6-2#172Luka Mikrut

5-7 6-4 6-2#276Stefan Dostanic

6-4 6-3#84Dino Prizmic

6-4 6-4#152Dusan Lajovic

7-6(2) 6-2#97Rinky Hijikata

Ilya Ivashka

12W 3L

7-6(5) 2-6 7-6(7)#379Tiago Pereira

6-7(4) 6-1 6-3#243Dan Added

6-1 6-0#525Aziz Ouakaa

6-2 3-1 ret.#419Maximus Jones

6-4 6-4#645Iliyan Radulov

6-4 6-3—Agustin Siancha Borlenghi

3-6 6-3 6-4#589Pablo Martinez Gomez

7-6(5) 6-4—Rodrigo Fernandes

7-6(0) 4-6 6-4#285Petr Bar Biryukov

6-3 3-6 6-2#332Hamish Stewart

6-1 6-2#416Juan Alejandro Hernandez

6-1 6-1#720Manish Sureshkumar

6-3 6-2#628S D Prajwal Dev

6-4 6-4#204Keegan Smith

6-3 6-3#720Manish Sureshkumar

Stat Battle

Last 15 match performance, compared side by side.

CRChris RodeschRodesch

Last 15

3–5

9 core stats · 1 even

Ilya IvashkaIvashkaII

Ilya Ivashka carries the stronger recent form — Chris Rodesch's route runs through serve.

Serve · 2–2 · 1 even

1st Serve In68.5%+6.4pp62.1%

1st Serve Won74.5%+2.2pp76.7%

2nd Serve Won54.3%+4.7pp59.0%

Aces / Match6.8+1.75.1

Double Faults / Match2.7—2.9

Return · 0–1

Return Pts Won34.0%+8.8pp42.8%

Pressure · 1–1

Break Pts Converted42.0%+1.2pp43.2%

Break Pts Saved60.0%+2.0pp58.0%

Points · 0–1

Total Pts Won50.7%+4.8pp55.5%

Serve · 2–2 · 1 even

68.5%1st Serve In+6.4pp62.1%

74.5%1st Serve Won+2.2pp76.7%

54.3%2nd Serve Won+4.7pp59.0%

6.8Aces / Match+1.75.1

2.7Double Faults / Match—2.9

Return · 0–1

34.0%Return Pts Won+8.8pp42.8%

Pressure · 1–1

42.0%Break Pts Converted+1.2pp43.2%

60.0%Break Pts Saved+2.0pp58.0%

Points · 0–1

50.7%Total Pts Won+4.8pp55.5%

Chris Rodesch

Ilya Ivashka

Quick Take

Context

BetBugs edges

Ilya Ivashka

Over 9.5

Chris Rodesch 2-0

Result0 of 1 landed

Games3 of 4 landed

Sets1 of 2 landed

Match stats1 of 1 landed

Chris Rodesch

Ilya Ivashka

Stat Battle