Andrea Pellegrino vs Gonzalo Bueno: result, stats and head-to-head

Result0 of 1 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Market price 1.40
The read
Pellegrino's superior recent clay form and higher-quality opposition give him a clear edge in this qualifying match.
- Pellegrino has a 69.2% win rate on clay in his last 15 matches (9-4 record), compared to Bueno's 42.9% (6-8).
- Pellegrino's last 5 clay matches: 4 wins, including a straight-sets Q1 victory over Joao Silva (6-3 6-2) and a tight loss to Andrey Rublev (rank 16).
- Bueno's last 5 clay matches: 2 wins, 3 losses, with a heavy defeat to Laslo Djere (1-6 2-6) and a loss to Igor Ribeiro Marcondes (rank 324).
- Pellegrino holds a 55.5% games-won rate on clay in the last 15, versus Bueno's 47.9%.
BetBugs · Match WinnerlostAndrea PellegrinoEstimated chance65%

Games2 of 4 landed

Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
The first set is likely to be competitive, with both players capable of holding serve, leading to a higher game count.
- Pellegrino's last 5 clay first sets: 6-3, 7-6, 6-3, 3-6, 6-3 — 4 of 5 had 9 or more games.
- Bueno's last 5 clay first sets: 6-4, 4-6, 1-6, 2-6, 6-7 — 3 of 5 had 10 or more games.
- Both players have a history of tiebreaks: Pellegrino's career tiebreak win rate is 53%, Bueno's is 52%.
BetBugs · Set 1 Total GameslostOver 9.5Estimated chance58%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
While Pellegrino is favored, Bueno's competitiveness in patches and the potential for a close set pushes the total games slightly above the line.
- Pellegrino's last 5 clay matches averaged 21.6 total games, with 3 of 5 going over 21.5.
- Bueno's last 5 clay matches averaged 20.6 total games, with 2 of 5 over 21.5.
- Both players have shown the ability to engage in tight sets: Pellegrino played a 7-6, 6-7, 3-6 match vs Rublev; Bueno had a 7-5, 4-6, 6-7 match vs Forti.
BetBugs · Total GameswonOver 21.5Estimated chance55%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Even if Pellegrino takes the first set, Bueno has shown resilience in second sets, making an over 9.5 games likely.
- Pellegrino's last 5 clay second sets: 6-2, 6-7, 6-2, 6-4, 6-4 — 3 of 5 had 10 or more games.
- Bueno's last 5 clay second sets: 6-4, 7-6, 2-6, 3-6, 6-3 — 3 of 5 had 10 or more games.
- In matches where Pellegrino wins the first set, the second set often remains competitive, as seen in his recent wins.
BetBugs · Set 2 Total GameswonOver 9.5Estimated chance55%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Pellegrino's ability to win comfortably against lower-ranked opponents on clay supports a -3.5 game handicap cover.
- Pellegrino's average games-won margin on clay in his last 15 is +1.8 games per match.
- In his last 5 clay wins, Pellegrino covered a -3.5 game handicap in 3 matches (vs Silva, Kjaer, Alcala Gurri).
- Bueno's losses often come by wide margins: lost by 9 games to Djere, by 7 games to Lajovic.
BetBugs · Game HandicaplostAndrea Pellegrino -3.5Estimated chance55%

Sets0 of 1 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Market price 1.50
The read
Pellegrino's tendency to start strongly on clay, combined with Bueno's recent first-set struggles, supports a Pellegrino set-one win.
- Pellegrino won the first set in 4 of his last 5 clay matches, including against Rublev (lost tiebreak) and in straight-set wins over Silva and Kjaer.
- Bueno lost the first set in 3 of his last 5 clay matches, including against Djere (1-6) and Compagnucci (6-7).
- Pellegrino's first-set win conversion rate in his career is 82%, indicating strong starts.
BetBugs · Set 1 WinnerlostAndrea PellegrinoEstimated chance62%

Match stats0 of 1 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Both players are low ace hitters on clay, making it highly likely the total aces stay under 5.5.
- Pellegrino averages 3.2 aces per match on clay in his last 15, with a max of 5 in that span.
- Bueno averages only 0.9 aces per match on clay in his last 15, with a max of 3.
- Combined, their average aces per match on clay is 4.1, well under 5.5.
BetBugs · Total AcesUnder 5.5Estimated chance68%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
The combined double fault average is close to the line, and with pressure in a qualifying match, the total could edge over 5.5.
- Pellegrino averages 2.4 double faults per match on clay in his last 15.
- Bueno averages 2.8 double faults per match on clay in his last 15.
- Combined average is 5.2, with both players occasionally having higher counts (Pellegrino had 4 in one match, Bueno had 5 in one match).
BetBugs · Total Double FaultsOver 5.5Estimated chance55%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
Given both players' recent history of tiebreaks on clay, there is a reasonable chance of at least one tiebreak in this match.
- Pellegrino has played a tiebreak in 3 of his last 5 clay matches.
- Bueno has played a tiebreak in 2 of his last 5 clay matches.
- Both players have career tiebreak win rates around 52-53%, indicating frequent tiebreak involvement.
BetBugs · Tiebreak in MatchlostYesEstimated chance50%

The percentage shows our estimated chance. Tap a row for the context and share card.18+ · predictions, not guarantees

Andrea Pellegrino #138Italy1Gonzalo Bueno #176Peru2

Player Profiles

Andrea Pellegrino

Gonzalo Bueno

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Context

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Andrea Pellegrino

Andrea Pellegrino

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Result0 of 1 landed

Games2 of 4 landed

Sets0 of 1 landed

Match stats0 of 1 landed

Andrea Pellegrino

Gonzalo Bueno

Stat Battle