Raphael Collignon #42Belgium22 – 1Juan Manuel Cerundolo #45Argentina1

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Market price 1.60

The read

The H2H history of tight three-set battles and both players' solid clay hold/break profiles make a longer match likely, pushing total games over 21.5.

• All three H2H matches went to three sets, with total games of 23, 22, and 23.
• Cerundolo's last 15 clay matches average 22.1 games per match (193 games in 11 matches).
• Collignon's last 15 clay matches average 21.4 games per match (135 games in 8 matches).
• Both players have high break-point save rates on clay (Cerundolo 72.6%, Collignon 67.9%), extending games.

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Market price 1.60

The read

The tight H2H history and Collignon's ability to keep matches close on clay make a +3.5 game handicap a strong cover for Collignon.

• In all three H2H matches, the total game margin was 2 games or fewer.
• Collignon's last 15 clay matches: average game margin of -0.5 per match.
• Cerundolo's last 15 clay matches: average game margin of +2.1 per match.

Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced

The read

With both players capable of bouncing back in the second set, as seen in H2H, the second set is likely to be closely contested and exceed 9.5 games.

• In H2H, second-set games: 10, 7, 9 (average 8.7, but two of three were 9+).
• Collignon's last 15 clay second sets average 9.4 games.
• Cerundolo's last 15 clay second sets average 9.1 games.

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Market price 2.20

The read

The consistent H2H trend of three-set matches and both players' high frequency of three-setters on clay strongly support the match going over 2.5 sets.

• All three H2H matches went to three sets.
• Cerundolo's last 15 clay matches: 7 of 11 went to three sets (63.6%).
• Collignon's last 15 clay matches: 5 of 8 went to three sets (62.5%).

Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Market price 2.20

The read

Cerundolo's tendency to start well in H2H and his high career first-set win conversion rate suggest a slight edge in the opening set.

• Cerundolo won the first set in 2 of 3 H2H matches.
• Cerundolo's first-set win conversion rate is 88% career, indicating strong starts.
• Collignon's first-set win conversion is 89%, but he lost the first set in both 2026 clay H2H meetings.

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Market price 2.20

The read

The high frequency of tiebreaks in H2H and both players' recent clay matches makes a tiebreak likely in this tight matchup.

• Two of three H2H matches featured a tiebreak (both in the third set).
• Collignon has played a tiebreak in 5 of his last 8 clay matches (62.5%).
• Cerundolo has played a tiebreak in 6 of his last 11 clay matches (54.5%).
• Collignon's tiebreak win rate is 61% career, Cerundolo's is 63%.

Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced

The read

With both players serving above-average aces on clay and a likely extended match, total aces should exceed 12.5.

• Collignon averages 10.3 aces per match on clay in last 15; Cerundolo averages 8.0.
• Combined average aces in H2H: 10 per match (15 each in 3 matches).
• Both players have above-average ace rates for clay, with Collignon's 9.5 overall last 15.

Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced

The read

Collignon's high double-fault rate on clay, combined with Cerundolo's moderate rate, pushes the combined total over 7.5 in a likely three-set match.

• Collignon averages 5.5 double faults per match on clay in last 15; Cerundolo averages 2.9.
• In H2H, Collignon has 16 double faults in 3 matches (5.3 per match), Cerundolo 6 (2.0 per match).
• Combined H2H average is 7.3 double faults per match.