AustriaATP KitzbuhelFinished

Predictions graded

Federico Coria #783Argentina0Vitaliy Sachko #195Ukraine2

Sets 6-7 · 2-6Sat 18 Jul 2026, 11:35 Predictions gradedQ1Clay

Predictions4–450%

Edges2–250%

Player Profiles

Ranking advantageVitaliy Sachko · 588 places

Federico Coria

Argentina

Argentine right-hander born 9 March 1992. Career-high No. 49 came on 13 February 2023. He is in this Kitzbuhel qualifying draw on a protected ranking, with the supplied structured data listing him at No. 783.

Current ranking: #783
Peak ranking: #49 · 2023
Current age: 34
Preferred surface: Clay
Hand: Right handed
Height: 180 cm

Vitaliy Sachko

Ukraine

Ukrainian right-hander born 14 July 1997. Career-high No. 156 came on 31 July 2023, and the supplied structured data lists him at No. 195 here. His best Challenger singles results have mostly come on clay.

Current ranking: #195
Peak ranking: #156 · 2023
Current age: 29
Preferred surface: Clay
Hand: Right handed
Height: 188 cm

Quick Take

Pre-match view

Context last updated 18 Jul 2026, 10:16 · Europe/Bucharest

Vitaliy Sachko holds a moderate edge over Federico Coria in this Kitzbuhel qualifying match, driven by stronger recent clay form and return stats.

The match is likely to be tight and go over 21.5 total games, with value in Sachko to win 2-1 at 3.50. Avoid backing Sachko at short odds in the match winner market due to negative expected value.

Context

Coria is listed as '(PR)' in the official draw, confirming protected ranking entry.
- His last 13 clay matches: 5 wins, 8 losses, including a 6-0 6-2 loss to Taro Daniel and a 6-4 6-1 loss to Vilius Gaubas.
- He has lost 5 of his last 6 completed clay matches, with the only win coming via retirement.
Sachko's last 14 clay matches: 8 wins, 6 losses, including wins over Vit Kopriva (ranked 64) and Jack Pinnington Jones.
- He wins 41.3% of return points on clay in this sample, compared to Coria's 40.2%.
- Sachko converts 46.6% of break points on clay, while Coria converts only 38.4%.
H2H is 1-1, but Sachko won the most recent match 4-6 7-5 6-3 on clay in June 2023.
- Coria won their first meeting in straight sets on clay in 2021, but that was over five years ago.
- Sachko's win came from a set down, showing he can problem-solve against Coria on clay.

BetBugs edges

Compare BetBugs' chances with the market's.

Positive edges · 3

BetBugs probabilities

How likely BetBugs thought each outcome was.

Result1 of 1 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Market price 1.40
The read
Sachko has a stronger recent clay form and return profile, giving him a moderate edge over Coria, who has struggled on clay in the last 15 matches.
- Sachko's last 15 clay record: 8-6 (57.1%), Coria's: 5-8 (38.5%)
- Sachko's last 15 clay return points won: 41.3%, Coria's: 40.2%
- Sachko's last 15 clay break point conversion: 46.6%, Coria's: 38.4%
- H2H: 1-1, Sachko won most recent meeting on clay in 2023
BetBugs · Match WinnerwonVitaliy SachkoEstimated chance58%

Games1 of 3 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Market price 1.80
The read
Both players have a tendency for tight first sets on clay, with a majority exceeding 9.5 games in recent matches.
- Coria's last 15 clay first sets: 6 of 13 went over 9.5 games
- Sachko's last 15 clay first sets: 8 of 14 went over 9.5 games
- Combined first set over 9.5 rate: ~54% in recent clay matches
BetBugs · Set 1 Total GameswonOver 9.5Estimated chance62%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Market price 1.80
The read
Both players are evenly matched and often go to deciding sets, pushing the total games over 21.5 in most scenarios.
- Coria's last 15 clay matches averaged 21.0 total games per match
- Sachko's last 15 clay matches averaged 23.4 total games per match
- Both players have high deciding set rates: Coria 56%, Sachko 58% career
- H2H matches: 22 and 16 games, both competitive
BetBugs · Total GameslostOver 21.5Estimated chance60%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Second sets often remain competitive even if one player wins the first, with a slight lean toward over 9.5 games.
- Coria's last 15 clay second sets: 7 of 13 went over 9.5 games
- Sachko's last 15 clay second sets: 7 of 14 went over 9.5 games
- Combined second set over 9.5 rate: ~52% in recent clay matches
BetBugs · Set 2 Total GameslostOver 9.5Estimated chance55%

Sets1 of 2 landed

Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Sachko tends to start stronger on clay, while Coria often falls behind early, making Sachko a slight favorite for the first set.
- Sachko's last 15 clay first set win rate: 57.1% (8/14 matches won overall, most wins in straight sets)
- Coria's last 15 clay first set win rate: 38.5% (5/13 matches won overall, often losing first set)
- Sachko's career first set win conversion: 87%
BetBugs · Set 1 WinnerwonVitaliy SachkoEstimated chance55%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Both players frequently go to three sets on clay, and their similar levels suggest a high chance of a deciding set.
- Coria's last 15 clay deciding set rate: 5 of 13 matches went to 3 sets (38.5%)
- Sachko's last 15 clay deciding set rate: 6 of 14 matches went to 3 sets (42.9%)
- Career deciding set win rates: Coria 56%, Sachko 58%
BetBugs · Total SetslostOver 2.5Estimated chance55%

Match stats1 of 1 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Both players average enough double faults to push the total over 4.5, especially in a pressure-filled qualifying match.
- Sachko's last 15 clay double faults per match: 2.9
- Coria's last 15 clay double faults per match: 1.8
- Combined average double faults per match: 4.7
BetBugs · Total Double FaultsOver 4.5Estimated chance60%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Sachko's serve generates more aces, and in a potentially long match, the total aces are likely to exceed 5.5.
- Sachko's last 15 clay aces per match: 3.1
- Coria's last 15 clay aces per match: 1.6
- Combined average aces per match: 4.7, but Sachko's higher ace rate can push total over 5.5 in a close match
BetBugs · Total AcesOver 5.5Estimated chance55%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
With both players prone to tight sets, there is a moderate chance of at least one tiebreak in the match.
- Coria's last 15 clay tiebreak rate: 3 of 13 matches had a tiebreak (23%)
- Sachko's last 15 clay tiebreak rate: 4 of 14 matches had a tiebreak (29%)
- Combined tiebreak occurrence: ~26% in recent clay matches, but close sets increase likelihood
BetBugs · Tiebreak in MatchwonYesEstimated chance50%

Markets to Avoid

High-risk markets where price or context leaves too little cushion.

Pre-match flagged 2 avoid-market areas; caution remains warranted in high-variance spots.

Head-to-Head

1-1 (2 meetings)

L4-6 7-5 6-3Federico Coria#783vVitaliy Sachko#195Jun 16, 2023

W6-2 6-2Federico Coria#783vVitaliy Sachko#195Feb 16, 2021

2 total meetings

Federico Coria

6W 9L

6-0 6-2#194Taro Daniel

2-6 6-2 6-3#231Guy Den Ouden

7-6(4) 1-0 ret.#390Geoffrey Blancaneaux

6-3 6-4#147Stefanos Sakellaridis

7-6(5) 6-2#836Oliver Bonding

7-5 6-3#322Nicolas Kicker

7-5 3-0 ret.#322Nicolas Kicker

7-6(5) 7-5#340Andrea Collarini

7-5 5-7 7-6(7)—Segundo Goity Zapico

6-4 6-1#128Vilius Gaubas

6-4 6-1#176Gonzalo Bueno

6-1 4-6 6-3#499Lorenzo Joaquin Rodriguez

7-5 7-5#43Matteo Berrettini

7-6(4) 6-1#171Joel Schwaerzler

6-4 6-2#175Marco Cecchinato

Vitaliy Sachko

8W 7L

6-2 6-4#163Timofey Skatov

6-4 6-1#381Manas Manoj Dhamne

6-3 7-6(4)#115Shintaro Mochizuki

6-4 6-3#100Alexander Shevchenko

3-6 6-3 6-2#330Petr Brunclik

5-2 ret.#460Thanasi Kokkinakis

6-2 7-6(4)#305Yosuke Watanuki

3-6 6-1 6-4#101Alex Molcan

6-1 4-6 7-6(4)#64Vit Kopriva

5-7 6-0 6-3#612Jan Kumstat

6-2 6-4#176Gonzalo Bueno

3-6 7-6(5) 7-5#170Jack Pinnington Jones

7-5 6-3#36Arthur Fery

6-7(7) 7-5 6-4#217Nikolas Sanchez-Izquierdo

6-4 2-6 6-4#264Luka Pavlovic

Stat Battle

Last 15 match performance, compared side by side.

FCFederico CoriaCoria

Last 15

4–5

9 core stats · 0 even

Vitaliy SachkoSachkoVS

Vitaliy Sachko carries the stronger recent form — Federico Coria's route runs through serve.

Serve · 3–2

1st Serve In66.3%+5.9pp60.4%

1st Serve Won60.6%+4.3pp64.9%

2nd Serve Won50.1%+1.2pp48.9%

Aces / Match1.7+1.83.5

Double Faults / Match1.90.9 fewer2.8

Return · 0–1

Return Pts Won38.5%+2.4pp40.9%

Pressure · 1–1

Break Pts Converted38.9%+6.5pp45.4%

Break Pts Saved57.9%+2.8pp55.1%

Points · 0–1

Total Pts Won47.7%+2.0pp49.7%

Serve · 3–2

66.3%1st Serve In+5.9pp60.4%

60.6%1st Serve Won+4.3pp64.9%

50.1%2nd Serve Won+1.2pp48.9%

1.7Aces / Match+1.83.5

1.9Double Faults / Match0.9 fewer2.8

Return · 0–1

38.5%Return Pts Won+2.4pp40.9%

Pressure · 1–1

38.9%Break Pts Converted+6.5pp45.4%

57.9%Break Pts Saved+2.8pp55.1%

Points · 0–1

47.7%Total Pts Won+2.0pp49.7%

Federico Coria #783Argentina0Vitaliy Sachko #195Ukraine2

Player Profiles

Federico Coria

Vitaliy Sachko

Quick Take

Context

BetBugs edges

Over 9.5

Over 21.5

Vitaliy Sachko 2-1

Vitaliy Sachko

BetBugs probabilities

Result1 of 1 landed

Games1 of 3 landed

Sets1 of 2 landed

Match stats1 of 1 landed

Markets to Avoid

Vitaliy Sachko -3.5 @ 1.75

Vitaliy Sachko 2-0 @ 1.95

Head-to-Head

Federico Coria

Vitaliy Sachko

Stat Battle