Andrey Rublev #16Russia22 – 1Alejandro Tabilo #311

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Market price 1.33

The read

Rublev's superior clay-court pedigree (career 146 clay wins, 64.1% overall win rate) and recent form edge over stronger opponents give him a clear advantage, despite Tabilo's solid clay record this season.

• Rublev clay record last 13 matches: 9-4 (69.2%), with 53.4% games won and 62.2% sets won.
• Tabilo clay record last 12 matches: 9-3 (75%), but with lower quality opposition (avg rank ~100 vs Rublev's ~60).
• Rublev last 5 matches: 4-1, including dominant 6-1 6-2 win over Baez (rank 56) yesterday.
• H2H: 1-1, but Tabilo's win was on hard court; Rublev won their only clay meeting (2024 I.hard, but Rublev's clay edge is stronger).

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Market price 1.60

The read

Given both players' solid serve and return stats on clay, and the likelihood of at least one tight set, the match is expected to exceed 21.5 games.

• Rublev's last 15 matches: average 22.7 games per match; Tabilo's: 20.5.
• On clay, Rublev's matches average 22.1 games; Tabilo's 20.3, but both have had several three-setters recently.
• H2H matches: 25 and 20 games, both competitive.
• Both players have break-point conversion rates around 35-39%, indicating potential for extended sets.

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Market price 1.85

The read

Tabilo's competitive clay form and Rublev's occasional lapses make it likely that Tabilo will keep the match close, covering the +3.5 game handicap.

• Rublev's average games won margin in last 15 matches: +0.8; on clay: +1.2.
• Tabilo's average games lost margin in last 15 matches: -0.3; on clay: +1.0.
• In their H2H, Tabilo covered +3.5 in both matches (lost by 5 games once, won by 3 games once).
• Tabilo has lost by more than 3.5 games only twice in his last 12 clay matches (to Cerundolo and Auger Aliassime, both top-22).

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Market price 1.91

The read

Strong serving and competitive early exchanges suggest the first set will be closely contested, likely reaching at least 10 games.

• Rublev's last 5 clay matches: first-set games averaged 10.2 (including tiebreaks).
• Tabilo's last 5 clay matches: first-set games averaged 9.4, with two 7-6 sets.
• Both players have first-serve win rates above 70% on clay, making breaks harder.
• H2H first sets: 7-6 and 7-6, both over 9.5.

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Market price 1.91

The read

Even if Rublev takes the first set, Tabilo's resilience and lefty serve could force a tight second set, pushing the game total over 9.5.

• Rublev's last 5 clay matches: second-set games averaged 9.8.
• Tabilo's last 5 clay matches: second-set games averaged 9.2, with two sets going to 7-5 or 7-6.
• Both players have break-point save rates above 60% on clay, extending sets.
• H2H second sets: 6-2 and 6-1, but those were on hard/indoor; clay dynamics differ.

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Market price 1.44

The read

Rublev's strong first-set record and recent form suggest he will start aggressively and take the opener, leveraging his higher first-serve win rate and return pressure.

• Rublev first-set win conversion career: 87%; Tabilo: 85%.
• Rublev last 5 clay matches: won first set in 4 of 5 (lost only to Sinner).
• Tabilo last 5 clay matches: won first set in 3 of 5, but lost first set to Auger Aliassime and Cerundolo (both top-22).
• Rublev's first-serve points won on clay last 13 matches: 71% vs Tabilo's 74.6%, but Rublev faces weaker returners.

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced

The read

On clay, both players tend to reduce double faults, and their recent averages suggest a total under 5.5 is likely.

• Rublev averages 2.2 double faults per match on clay last 13; Tabilo averages 1.8 on clay last 12.
• Combined average: 4.0 double faults per match on clay.
• In their H2H, total double faults were 8 and 8 (average 8), but those were on faster surfaces with more risk-taking.
• Both players have improved second-serve reliability on clay, with Rublev at 53.6% and Tabilo at 52% points won.

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced

The read

With two big servers on clay, and the match expected to be competitive, the total aces should exceed 12.5, especially if it goes three sets.

• Rublev averages 6.5 aces per match on clay last 13 matches; Tabilo averages 5.8 on clay last 12.
• Combined average: 12.3 aces per match on clay, but both have higher ace rates in longer matches.
• In their H2H, total aces were 29 and 24 (average 26.5), but those were on faster surfaces.
• Both players have first-serve percentages around 61-63%, leading to more service winners.