Tom Gentzsch #212Germany22 – 1Max Houkes #244Netherlands1

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Market price 1.73

The read

Gentzsch's superior clay-court serve metrics and H2H win give him a moderate edge in this Bo3 quarter-final.

• Gentzsch leads H2H 1-0, winning 7-5 6-4 on clay in August 2025.
• Gentzsch's last 10 clay matches: 6-4 record, 53.4% games won; Houkes' last 13 clay matches: 7-6 record, 51.4% games won.
• Gentzsch's clay break-point save rate is 70% in last 10 matches vs Houkes' 58.8% in last 13.
• Gentzsch's first-serve win rate on clay is 76.5% in last 10 matches vs Houkes' 66.2% in last 13.

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced

The read

Houkes' recent clay form suggests he can keep the match close, making +3.5 games a solid cover.

• Houkes' last 13 clay matches: average game differential -0.5, with only 2 losses by more than 3.5 games.
• Gentzsch's last 10 clay wins: average margin +4.2 games, but against weaker opponents.
• H2H margin was 2 games.

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced

The read

The competitive nature of this matchup and both players' recent clay match lengths support a total games over 21.5.

• Gentzsch's last 10 clay matches averaged 23.6 total games; Houkes' last 13 clay matches averaged 18.8 total games.
• H2H match had 22 total games.
• Both players have shown ability to extend sets: Gentzsch played three-setters in 3 of last 10 clay matches; Houkes in 2 of last 13.

Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced

The read

The second set is likely to be competitive, though less certainty than the first set.

• Gentzsch's last 10 clay second sets averaged 9.8 games; Houkes' last 13 clay second sets averaged 9.2 games.
• H2H second set was 10 games.
• Both players have similar second-set game averages on clay.

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced

The read

Gentzsch's serving power should push the total aces over 7.5, especially in a competitive match.

• Gentzsch averages 5.3 aces per match on clay in last 10; Houkes averages 2.5 in last 13.
• Combined average: 7.8 aces per match.
• Gentzsch's ace rate is 7.3% career; Houkes' is 3.8%.

Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced

The read

Gentzsch's high double fault count on clay makes over 6.5 likely, though Houkes' low rate adds uncertainty.

• Gentzsch averages 5.0 double faults per clay match in last 10; Houkes averages 2.2 in last 13.
• Combined average: 7.2 double faults per match.
• Gentzsch's double fault rate is 5.3% career; Houkes' is 6.0%.