SwitzerlandATP GstaadFinished

Predictions graded

Raphael Collignon #42Belgium2Valentin Vacherot #211

Sets 7-6 · 4-6 · 7-5Fri 17 Jul 2026, 08:41 Predictions gradedQuarter-FinalClay

Predictions5–363%

Edges4–267%

Player Profiles

Ranking advantageValentin Vacherot · 21 places

Raphael Collignon

Belgium

Belgian right-hander born on 2002-01-13. ATP notes he broke the top 100 in February 2025 and reached a career-high No. 59 on 2026-02-16. Steve Darcis is listed as coach, but this search set did not surface a reliable public preferred-surface label.

Current ranking: #42
Peak ranking: #59 · 2026
Current age: 24
Preferred surface: —
Hand: Right handed
Height: 191 cm

Valentin Vacherot

Monégasque right-hander born on 1998-11-16. ATP lists clay as his favourite surface, and he reached a career-high No. 16 on 2026-05-04. Benjamin Balleret is listed as coach.

Current ranking: #21
Peak ranking: #16 · 2026
Current age: 27
Preferred surface: Clay
Hand: Right handed
Height: 193 cm

Quick Take

Pre-match view

Context last updated 16 Jul 2026, 06:36 · Europe/Bucharest

Vacherot's fresher legs and superior clay return stats give him the edge over a fatigued Collignon.

Expect a tight match with a tiebreak likely, favoring Vacherot to win and the first set over 9.5 games. Collignon +3.5 games is a solid handicap play.

Context

Collignon beat Skatov 3-6, 7-6(1), 6-4 and Sonego 7-6(2), 7-6(5) in his two Gstaad matches.
- Vacherot had a first-round bye and beat Hanfmann 4-6, 6-3, 6-4 in his only match so far.
- Collignon's average match duration on clay in the last 15 is 146.6 minutes, and both wins this week were long battles.
Vacherot's clay return points won in last 15: 38.1% vs Collignon's 35.2%.
- Vacherot also saves break points better on clay (73.1% vs 69.0%).
- Collignon's double-fault rate on clay is 4.9 per match, which Vacherot's return can exploit.

BetBugs edges

Compare BetBugs' chances with the market's.

Positive edges · 4

BetBugs probabilities

How likely BetBugs thought each outcome was.

Result0 of 1 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Market price 2.40
The read
Vacherot's superior clay return stats and fresher legs from a lighter tournament load give him a structural edge in this Bo3 quarterfinal.
- Vacherot clay record last 15: 6-2 (75%), Collignon clay record last 15: 5-3 (62.5%)
- Vacherot return points won on clay last 15: 38.1%, Collignon: 35.2%
- Vacherot break point save rate on clay last 15: 73.1%, Collignon: 69.0%
- Collignon has played two tough 3-set matches this week, Vacherot had a bye and one 3-setter
BetBugs · Match WinnerlostValentin VacherotEstimated chance62%

Games3 of 3 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Market price 1.45
The read
Collignon's competitive clay matches and Vacherot's occasional lapses make a +3.5 handicap for Collignon a strong cover.
- Collignon clay last 15: avg games won 16.4 per match, lost 15.4
- Vacherot clay last 15: avg games won 15.8 per match, lost 13.9
- Collignon has covered +3.5 in 7 of last 8 clay matches
BetBugs · Game HandicapwonRaphael Collignon +3.5Estimated chance68%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Market price 1.44
The read
Both players have strong serve stats and high tiebreak rates, making a close match with over 21.5 games likely.
- Collignon last 15 clay matches: avg 23.1 total games per match
- Vacherot last 15 clay matches: avg 22.6 total games per match
- Both players have high tiebreak rates (Collignon 61% career, Vacherot 54%)
- H2H matches: 22 and 18 total games, both competitive
BetBugs · Total GameswonOver 21.5Estimated chance65%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Market price 1.91
The read
Strong serving and high first-set win rates for both players suggest a tight opening set with over 9.5 games.
- Collignon clay last 15: avg 10.1 games in first set
- Vacherot clay last 15: avg 9.8 games in first set
- Both players have strong serve stats, reducing early breaks
BetBugs · Set 1 Total GameswonOver 9.5Estimated chance62%

Sets1 of 2 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Market price 2.20
The read
Vacherot's high first-set win rate and Collignon's recent slow starts on clay suggest Vacherot is likely to take the opener.
- Vacherot first set win conversion career: 89%, Collignon: 89%
- Vacherot clay last 15: 6-2 record, often starting strong
- Collignon dropped first set in two of his last three clay matches
BetBugs · Set 1 WinnerlostValentin VacherotEstimated chance60%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Market price 2.20
The read
With both players strong on serve and capable of comebacks, a deciding set is more likely than not.
- Collignon clay last 15: 37.5% of matches went to 3 sets
- Vacherot clay last 15: 50% of matches went to 3 sets
- Both players have high break point save rates, extending sets
BetBugs · Total SetswonOver 2.5Estimated chance55%

Match stats1 of 1 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
High first-serve win percentages and close H2H history make a tiebreak likely in this evenly matched contest.
- Collignon career tiebreak win rate: 61%, played tiebreaks in 3 of last 5 clay matches
- Vacherot career tiebreak win rate: 54%, played tiebreaks in 4 of last 8 clay matches
- Both players have strong first-serve points won on clay (Collignon 76.1%, Vacherot 74.3%)
BetBugs · Tiebreak in MatchwonYesEstimated chance65%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Both players have high ace rates on clay, and the altitude in Gstaad can aid serving, pushing total aces over 12.5.
- Collignon clay last 15: 8.8 aces per match
- Vacherot clay last 15: 7.1 aces per match
- Combined average: 15.9 aces per match on clay
BetBugs · Total AcesOver 12.5Estimated chance60%

Head-to-Head

1-1 (2 meetings)

W7-5 6-4Raphael Collignon#42vValentin Vacherot#21Jan 10, 2023

L6-3 6-4Raphael Collignon#42vValentin Vacherot#21Jan 23, 2022

2 total meetings

Raphael Collignon

9W 6L

7-6(2) 7-6(5)#83Lorenzo Sonego

3-6 7-6(1) 6-4#163Timofey Skatov

7-5 6-1 6-3#23Arthur Fils

6-4 4-6 7-6(5)#45Juan Manuel Cerundolo

7-6(10) 7-6(2)#2Alexander Zverev

4-6 6-4 6-3#80Mattia Bellucci

6-4 6-2#103Alexei Popyrin

6-2 6-4#180Roberto Bautista Agut

6-4 6-2#644Aziz Dougaz

6-4 6-7(5) 5-7 6-4 7-6(4)#34Matteo Arnaldi

6-4 7-5 6-4#6Ben Shelton

6-3 6-3 7-6(4)#113Aleksandar Vukic

7-6(2) 6-2#13Casper Ruud

6-3 7-6(5)#49Adrian Mannarino

5-7 6-1 7-6(4)#45Juan Manuel Cerundolo

Valentin Vacherot

10W 5L

4-6 6-3 6-4#51Yannick Hanfmann

6-3 6-4 3-6 7-6(6)#319Thomas Faurel

6-7(5) 7-6(1) 6-3#91Emilio Nava

6-4 6-4#3Carlos Alcaraz

6-4 3-6 6-3#5Alex De Minaur

6-7(4) 6-3 6-4#68Hubert Hurkacz

7-6(6) 7-5#14Lorenzo Musetti

5-7 6-2 6-1#45Juan Manuel Cerundolo

6-4 6-7(4) 6-4#23Arthur Fils

7-6(5) 6-4#43Matteo Berrettini

6-3 6-4#48Mariano Navone

3-6 6-3 6-4#13Casper Ruud

7-5 7-5#52Nuno Borges

2-6 6-2 6-3#32Brandon Nakashima

6-3 6-3#325Gael Monfils

Stat Battle

Last 15 match performance, compared side by side.

RCRaphael CollignonCollignon

Last 15

2–6

9 core stats · 1 even

Valentin VacherotVacherotVV

Valentin Vacherot carries the stronger recent form — Raphael Collignon's route runs through pressure.

Serve · 1–3 · 1 even

1st Serve In65.3%+1.0pp64.3%

1st Serve Won77.4%—77.3%

2nd Serve Won48.7%+4.3pp53.0%

Aces / Match8.7+0.39.0

Double Faults / Match4.71.8 fewer2.9

Return · 0–1

Return Pts Won33.3%+2.7pp36.0%

Pressure · 1–1

Break Pts Converted42.2%+11.4pp30.8%

Break Pts Saved69.7%+1.0pp70.7%

Points · 0–1

Total Pts Won50.6%+1.5pp52.1%

Serve · 1–3 · 1 even

65.3%1st Serve In+1.0pp64.3%

77.4%1st Serve Won—77.3%

48.7%2nd Serve Won+4.3pp53.0%

8.7Aces / Match+0.39.0

4.7Double Faults / Match1.8 fewer2.9

Return · 0–1

33.3%Return Pts Won+2.7pp36.0%

Pressure · 1–1

42.2%Break Pts Converted+11.4pp30.8%

69.7%Break Pts Saved+1.0pp70.7%

Points · 0–1

50.6%Total Pts Won+1.5pp52.1%

Raphael Collignon

Valentin Vacherot

Quick Take

Context

BetBugs edges

Valentin Vacherot

Over 9.5

Valentin Vacherot

Over 2.5

Raphael Collignon +3.5

Over 21.5

Result0 of 1 landed

Games3 of 3 landed

Sets1 of 2 landed

Match stats1 of 1 landed

Head-to-Head

Raphael Collignon

Valentin Vacherot

Stat Battle