SwitzerlandATP GstaadFinished

Predictions graded

Juan Manuel Cerundolo #45Argentina2Casper Ruud #13Norway1

Sets 3-6 · 7-5 · 6-2Fri 17 Jul 2026, 11:43 Predictions gradedQuarter-FinalClay

Predictions5–456%

Edges5–271%

Player Profiles

Ranking advantageCasper Ruud · 32 places

Juan Manuel Cerundolo

Argentina

Clay-oriented lefty. He reached the 2025 Gstaad final and has made ATP Tour quarterfinals in Rio, Eastbourne and Gstaad in 2026.

Current ranking: #45
Peak ranking: #42
Current age: 24
Preferred surface: Clay
Hand: Left handed
Height: 183 cm

Casper Ruud

Norway

Former world No. 2 and a two-time Gstaad champion. Clay is still the surface most closely tied to his best ATP results.

Current ranking: #13
Peak ranking: #2
Current age: 27
Preferred surface: Clay
Hand: Right handed
Height: 183 cm

Quick Take

Pre-match view

Context last updated 16 Jul 2026, 22:29 · Europe/Bucharest

Ruud's Gstaad pedigree and clay prowess make him a narrow favorite, but Cerundolo's comfort at this venue and their three-set history suggest a competitive match.

Betting value lies in over 22.5 total games and Cerundolo covering a +3.5 game handicap, while avoiding Ruud straight-set markets.

Context

Cerundolo beat Zdenek Kolar 4-6, 6-3, 6-4 on 14 July.
- He then beat Miomir Kecmanovic 3-6, 6-3, 7-5 on 16 July.
- Both wins went the distance, adding physical strain before the quarterfinal.
Ruud lost the first set 6-7(1) to Faria on 16 July.
- He recovered to win 6-4, 6-2, but the match lasted 2h31.
- The performance showed some rust in his first Gstaad match of the year.
Cerundolo defeated Ruud 6-2, 1-6, 6-3 on 18 July 2025 in the Gstaad quarterfinal.
- The match was played on the same outdoor clay surface at altitude.
- Cerundolo converted 67% of break points in that match, showing he can capitalize on Ruud's serve.

BetBugs edges

Compare BetBugs' chances with the market's.

Positive edges · 5

BetBugs probabilities

How likely BetBugs thought each outcome was.

Result0 of 1 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Market price 1.30
The read
Ruud's superior clay pedigree, recent form, and Gstaad dominance give him a slight edge, though Cerundolo's current venue comfort and H2H win keep it competitive.
- Ruud is 11-3 on clay in last 14 matches (78.6% win rate), with 55.8% games won and 66.7% sets won.
- Cerundolo is 10-1 on clay in last 11 matches (90.9% win rate), but his last 5 matches include two three-set wins in Gstaad this week, indicating heavier workload.
- Ruud's career clay win percentage is 65% (268-145), with a 90% first-set win conversion; Cerundolo's career clay win percentage is 61.9% (299-184).
- H2H: Cerundolo won their only meeting 6-2, 1-6, 6-3 in the 2025 Gstaad QF, but Ruud's overall Gstaad record is 10-1 with two titles.
BetBugs · Match WinnerlostCasper RuudEstimated chance62%

Games3 of 4 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Market price 1.90
The read
Cerundolo's strong record of keeping matches close, especially on clay, makes him likely to stay within 3.5 games even in a loss.
- Cerundolo has covered a +3.5 game handicap in 13 of his last 15 matches overall (86.7%), and in all 11 clay matches in that window.
- Ruud's average margin of victory in his last 15 matches is 3.1 games; in clay matches, it's 3.4 games.
- Their only H2H had a 3-game margin (Cerundolo won by 3 games).
BetBugs · Game HandicapwonJuan Manuel Cerundolo +3.5Estimated chance68%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Market price 2.00
The read
Both players' recent clay matches and their H2H history indicate a competitive, extended match likely exceeding 22.5 games.
- Cerundolo's last 5 matches on clay averaged 24.4 games per match; his last 15 clay matches averaged 22.0 games.
- Ruud's last 5 clay matches averaged 21.6 games, but his last 15 clay matches averaged 20.9 games.
- Their only H2H match had 24 games (6-2, 1-6, 6-3).
- Both players have high break-point conversion rates (Cerundolo 43.4%, Ruud 43.4% in last 15 matches), leading to more breaks and longer matches.
BetBugs · Total GameswonOver 22.5Estimated chance65%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Market price 1.91
The read
Recent first-set trends for both players on clay indicate a competitive start likely exceeding 9.5 games.
- Cerundolo's last 5 clay matches: first-set games averaged 10.2, with 4 of 5 going over 9.5.
- Ruud's last 5 clay matches: first-set games averaged 9.6, with 3 of 5 going over 9.5.
- Their H2H first set had 8 games (6-2), but current form suggests tighter openers.
BetBugs · Set 1 Total GameslostOver 9.5Estimated chance60%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Market price 1.91
The read
Both players' recent second-set competitiveness on clay supports a total over 9.5 games in set 2.
- Cerundolo's last 5 clay matches: second-set games averaged 9.8, with 3 of 5 going over 9.5.
- Ruud's last 5 clay matches: second-set games averaged 9.4, with 3 of 5 going over 9.5.
- In their H2H, the second set had 7 games (1-6), but both players have shown resilience in second sets recently.
BetBugs · Set 2 Total GameswonOver 9.5Estimated chance58%

Sets2 of 2 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Market price 1.40
The read
Ruud's strong first-set record on clay and Cerundolo's occasional slow starts suggest Ruud is more likely to take the opener.
- Ruud has won the first set in 12 of his last 15 matches overall (80%), and in 11 of 14 clay matches in that window.
- Cerundolo has won the first set in 9 of his last 15 matches (60%), but in his last 5 clay matches, he lost the first set twice.
- Ruud's career first-set win conversion is 90%, indicating he closes out matches well after winning the opener.
BetBugs · Set 1 WinnerwonCasper RuudEstimated chance58%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Market price 2.40
The read
Cerundolo's tendency for three-setters and the competitive history between these players make over 2.5 sets likely.
- Cerundolo has gone to three sets in 6 of his last 15 matches (40%), and in both Gstaad matches this week.
- Ruud has gone to three sets in 5 of his last 15 matches (33%), but his last Gstaad match went three sets.
- Their only H2H went three sets.
- Both players have similar deciding-set win rates (Cerundolo 62%, Ruud 61%), suggesting neither dominates in tight matches.
BetBugs · Total SetswonOver 2.5Estimated chance55%

Head-to-Head

1-0 (1 meetings)

W6-2 1-6 6-3Juan Manuel Cerundolo#45vCasper Ruud#13Jul 18, 2025

1 total meetings

Juan Manuel Cerundolo

12W 3L

3-6 6-3 7-5#59Miomir Kecmanovic

4-6 6-3 6-4#153Zdenek Kolar

6-4 6-4 7-6(2)#20Alejandro Davidovich Fokina

6-3 6-4#129Toby Samuel

6-2 7-6(2)#36Arthur Fery

6-4 4-6 7-6(5)#42Raphael Collignon

6-3 7-6(2) 7-6(6)#43Matteo Berrettini

6-4 6-7(7) 7-6(4) 6-7(4) 7-6(8)#62Martin Landaluce

3-6 2-6 7-5 6-1 6-1#1Jannik Sinner

6-2 7-6(0) 7-6(7)#123Jacob Fearnley

5-7 6-1 7-6(4)#42Raphael Collignon

6-2 6-4#90Quentin Halys

6-4 6-4#67Roman Andres Burruchaga

6-2 6-2#104Martin Damm

7-6(2) 6-4#86Luca Van Assche

Casper Ruud

11W 4L

6-7(1) 6-4 6-2#92Jaime Faria

6-4 6-2 7-6(7)#68Hubert Hurkacz

7-5 7-6(8) 5-7 6-2#27Joao Fonseca

4-6 6-7(4) 6-4 7-6(4) 7-5#24Tommy Paul

6-3 6-2 6-4#69Hamad Medjedovic

6-2 7-6(5) 5-7 0-6 6-2#96Roman Safiullin

7-5 6-2#48Mariano Navone

6-4 6-3#103Alexei Popyrin

7-6(2) 6-2#42Raphael Collignon

6-3 7-5#76Jenson Brooksby

6-4 6-4#1Jannik Sinner

6-1 6-1#18Luciano Darderi

6-1 1-6 6-2#26Karen Khachanov

6-3 6-1#14Lorenzo Musetti

6-3 6-4#12Jiri Lehecka

Stat Battle

Last 15 match performance, compared side by side.

JCJuan Manuel CerundoloCerundolo

Last 15

3–2

9 core stats · 4 even

Casper RuudRuudCR

Juan Manuel Cerundolo carries the stronger recent form — Casper Ruud's route runs through serve.

Serve · 2–1 · 2 even

1st Serve In56.6%+9.0pp65.6%

1st Serve Won74.8%+4.1pp70.7%

2nd Serve Won54.8%—54.9%

Aces / Match8.0+2.95.1

Double Faults / Match3.0—3.2

Return · 0–1

Return Pts Won37.3%+1.5pp38.8%

Pressure · 1–0 · 1 even

Break Pts Converted43.4%—43.4%

Break Pts Saved68.1%+2.8pp65.3%

Points · 0–0 · 1 even

Total Pts Won52.0%—52.0%

Shot making · 2–1Limited data · 5 vs 5

Winners / Match5/15 · 5/1544.4+3.840.6

Unforced Errors / Match5/15 · 5/1536.24.8 fewer41.0

Net Pts Won5/15 · 5/1563.3%+5.0pp68.3%

Serve · 2–1 · 2 even

56.6%1st Serve In+9.0pp65.6%

74.8%1st Serve Won+4.1pp70.7%

54.8%2nd Serve Won—54.9%

8.0Aces / Match+2.95.1

3.0Double Faults / Match—3.2

Return · 0–1

37.3%Return Pts Won+1.5pp38.8%

Pressure · 1–0 · 1 even

43.4%Break Pts Converted—43.4%

68.1%Break Pts Saved+2.8pp65.3%

Points · 0–0 · 1 even

52.0%Total Pts Won—52.0%

Shot making · 2–1Limited data · 5 vs 5

44.4Winners5/15 · 5/15+3.840.6

36.2Unforced Errors5/15 · 5/154.8 fewer41.0

63.3%Net Pts Won5/15 · 5/15+5.0pp68.3%

Juan Manuel Cerundolo

Casper Ruud

Quick Take

Context

BetBugs edges

Juan Manuel Cerundolo +3.5

Over 22.5

Over 9.5

Over 9.5

Over 2.5

Casper Ruud

Casper Ruud

Result0 of 1 landed

Games3 of 4 landed

Sets2 of 2 landed

Head-to-Head

Juan Manuel Cerundolo

Casper Ruud

Stat Battle