NetherlandsBunschoten - NetherlandsFinished

Predictions graded

Jan Kumstat #612Czechia2Thijs Boogaard #529Netherlands0

Sets 6-1 · 6-1Fri 17 Jul 2026, 13:17 Predictions gradedQuarter-FinalClay

Predictions2–722%

Edges2–529%

Player Profiles

Ranking advantageThijs Boogaard · 83 places

Jan Kumstat

Czechia

Czech right-hander born in 2007. Reached a career-high No. 603 on 2026-04-20, and public profile sources currently list hard courts as his preferred surface.

Current ranking: #612
Peak ranking: #603 · 2026
Current age: 19
Preferred surface: Hard
Hand: Right handed
Height: 196 cm

Thijs Boogaard

Netherlands

Dutch right-hander born in 2008. Reached a career-high No. 525 on 2026-06-29, and public profile sources currently list grass as his preferred surface.

Current ranking: #529
Peak ranking: #525 · 2026
Current age: 18
Preferred surface: Grass
Hand: Right handed
Height: 183 cm

Quick Take

Pre-match view

Context last updated 17 Jul 2026, 15:06 · Europe/Bucharest

Kumstat’s stronger clay-court stats and recent wins over higher-ranked opponents make him the favorite, despite Boogaard’s home momentum and lighter tournament workload.

The match is likely to be tight, with value on over 21.5 total games and over 2.5 sets, as both players have a history of three-set battles on clay.

Context

Kumstat beat Raquillet (qualifying), Alves (qualifying), Squire (main draw), and Broska (main draw) between July 12 and July 16.
- Boogaard beat Onclin on July 14 and Campana Lee (retirement) on July 16, both in the main draw.
- Kumstat's last match was a three-setter against Broska, adding physical strain.
Boogaard defeated Onclin 3-6 7-6(3) 6-4 on July 14, the biggest win of his recent run.
- He was leading Campana Lee 6-0 4-6 4-2 when Campana Lee retired, showing strong early form.
- Boogaard is the only Dutch player left in the draw, likely boosting local support.
Kumstat's last 15 clay matches: 10-5 record, 53.7% games won, 51.5% total points won.
- Boogaard's last 3 clay matches: 2-1 record, 48.6% games won, 49.8% total points won.
- Kumstat's return points won on clay is 36.8%, while Boogaard's is 40.5%, but Boogaard's break point save rate is only 28.6%.

BetBugs edges

Compare BetBugs' chances with the market's.

Positive edges · 6

BetBugs probabilities

How likely BetBugs thought each outcome was.

Result1 of 1 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Market price 1.75
The read
Kumstat's stronger clay-court stats and recent wins over higher-ranked opponents give him a surface-fit edge, despite Boogaard's home momentum.
- Kumstat has a 10-5 record on clay in the last 15 matches (66.7% win rate), while Boogaard is 2-1 on clay in the same window but with a smaller sample.
- Kumstat's clay last15 stats show 53.7% games won and 51.5% total points won, compared to Boogaard's 48.6% games won and 49.8% total points won on clay.
- Kumstat won the only H2H meeting in March 2026 on hard court, 3-6 7-5 10-7, showing ability to win tight matches.
- Kumstat has a heavier workload this tournament (4 matches vs. 2 for Boogaard), but his recent form includes wins over higher-ranked opponents (e.g., #215 Squire, #292 Broska).
BetBugs · Match WinnerwonJan KumstatEstimated chance62%

Games0 of 4 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Market price 1.60
The read
Both players have been involved in longer matches recently on clay, and their only H2H was a tight three-setter, supporting a higher total games count.
- Kumstat's last 5 matches on clay averaged 22.6 total games per match.
- Boogaard's last 3 clay matches averaged 23.3 total games, with two going to three sets.
- The H2H match had 38 total games (3-6 7-5 10-7), indicating competitive play between them.
BetBugs · Total GameslostOver 21.5Estimated chance65%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Market price 1.60
The read
Boogaard's competitive clay matches and solid return stats indicate he can cover a +3.5 game handicap even in a loss.
- Boogaard's last 3 clay matches had margins of 2, 0, and 6 games (retirement), with two being very close.
- Kumstat's last 5 wins on clay had an average margin of 4.8 games, but against stronger opponents the margins were tighter (e.g., 3 games vs. Broska).
- Boogaard's return points won on clay in the last 15 is 40.5%, slightly above Kumstat's 36.8%, suggesting he can keep games close.
BetBugs · Game HandicaplostThijs Boogaard +3.5Estimated chance60%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Market price 1.85
The read
Recent first-set trends for both players on clay show a pattern of competitive starts, often exceeding 9.5 games.
- Kumstat's last 5 first sets on clay averaged 10.2 games.
- Boogaard's last 3 first sets on clay averaged 10.3 games.
- In their H2H, the first set had 9 games, but both players have been involved in longer opening sets recently.
BetBugs · Set 1 Total GameslostOver 9.5Estimated chance60%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Market price 1.85
The read
Second sets in their recent matches have been tightly contested, supporting over 9.5 games.
- Kumstat's last 5 second sets on clay averaged 10.0 games.
- Boogaard's last 3 second sets on clay averaged 10.7 games.
- In the H2H, the second set had 12 games.
BetBugs · Set 2 Total GameslostOver 9.5Estimated chance60%

Sets1 of 2 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Market price 1.75
The read
Kumstat's high first-set win conversion and recent trend of starting well on clay suggest he is likely to take the opening set.
- Kumstat's first-set win conversion rate is 90% in his career, indicating he often starts strong.
- In his last 5 matches, Kumstat won the first set in 4 of them, including against #215 Squire and #292 Broska.
- Boogaard's last 5 matches show he lost the first set in 2 of his last 3 clay matches (vs. Onclin and Campana Lee).
BetBugs · Set 1 WinnerwonJan KumstatEstimated chance60%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Market price 2.20
The read
Both players have shown a pattern of extended matches on clay, increasing the likelihood of a three-set contest.
- Boogaard's last 3 clay matches all went to three sets.
- Kumstat's last 5 matches include two three-setters.
- The H2H match went to a deciding set tiebreak.
BetBugs · Total SetslostOver 2.5Estimated chance55%

Match stats0 of 1 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Both players have above-average ace counts for this level, making over 12.5 aces likely in a potentially long match.
- Kumstat averages 8.5 aces per match in his last 15, with a high of 13 aces in a recent clay match.
- Boogaard averages 7.0 aces per match on clay in his last 3, with 8 aces in his last match.
- Combined, their recent ace rates suggest a total around 15-16 aces.
BetBugs · Total AcesOver 12.5Estimated chance60%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Both players have elevated double fault rates on clay, making over 6.5 double faults a strong possibility.
- Kumstat averages 2.9 double faults per match in his last 15, with 4.7 on clay in the last 3.
- Boogaard averages 4.7 double faults per match on clay in his last 3.
- Combined, their recent clay double fault rates average around 9.4 per match.
BetBugs · Total Double FaultsOver 6.5Estimated chance60%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Both players have frequent tiebreak involvement and their only previous meeting was decided by tiebreaks, suggesting at least one tiebreak is likely.
- Kumstat has played a tiebreak in 5 of his last 15 matches (33%).
- Boogaard has played a tiebreak in 6 of his last 15 matches (40%).
- The H2H match featured two tiebreaks (7-5 in the second set and 10-7 in the match tiebreak).
BetBugs · Tiebreak in MatchlostYesEstimated chance55%

Head-to-Head

1-0 (1 meetings)

W3-6 7-5 10-7Jan Kumstat#612vThijs Boogaard#529Mar 27, 2026

1 total meetings

Jan Kumstat

10W 5L

6-7(5) 6-4 6-4#292Florian Broska

6-3 6-1#215Henri Squire

6-3 6-3#455Mateus Alves

7-6(2) 6-4#654Leo Raquillet

7-6(5) 6-2#738Pavel Lagutin

6-1 1-6 6-3—Duje Markovina

6-3 6-2#615Kai Wehnelt

6-4 7-6(3)#439Corentin Denolly

3-6 7-6(4) 6-2#398Georgii Kravchenko

7-6(5) 6-4#314Marvin Moeller

6-2 6-1#861Jakub Filip

6-4 6-3#742Matteo Covato

5-7 6-0 6-3#195Vitaliy Sachko

6-4 6-7(10) 6-2#400Oleg Prihodko

6-4 6-4#768Ji Sung Nam

Thijs Boogaard

10W 5L

6-0 4-6 4-2 ret.#632Gerard Campana Lee

3-6 7-6(3) 6-4#169Gauthier Onclin

7-5 2-6 7-5#430Tiago Torres

7-6(4) 6-2#485Fabrizio Andaloro

7-6(5) 6-0#345Carl Emil Overbeck

6-3 3-6 6-4#486Patrick Schoen

7-6(8) 6-3—Goncalo Marques

6-3 4-6 7-6(6)#8Daniil Medvedev

6-3 2-6 6-4#106Yibing Wu

2-6 6-1 7-5—Aaron Funk

6-3 5-7 6-2—Ali Habib

7-5 6-1—Hitesh Chauhan

6-1 6-3#558Peter Makk

7-6(3) 6-4#675Amit Vales

6-4 6-0#328Michael Geerts

Stat Battle

Last 15 match performance, compared side by side.

JKJan KumstatKumstat

Last 15

6–2

9 core stats · 1 even

Thijs BoogaardBoogaardTB

Jan Kumstat carries the stronger recent form — Thijs Boogaard's route runs through serve.

Serve · 4–1

1st Serve In58.0%+3.8pp61.8%

1st Serve Won74.4%+7.3pp67.1%

2nd Serve Won54.7%+1.8pp52.9%

Aces / Match8.5+4.34.2

Double Faults / Match2.91.0 fewer3.9

Return · 0–1

Return Pts Won36.8%+3.2pp40.0%

Pressure · 2–0

Break Pts Converted45.5%+6.0pp39.5%

Break Pts Saved65.1%+1.3pp63.8%

Points · 0–0 · 1 even

Total Pts Won51.5%—50.9%

Serve · 4–1

58.0%1st Serve In+3.8pp61.8%

74.4%1st Serve Won+7.3pp67.1%

54.7%2nd Serve Won+1.8pp52.9%

8.5Aces / Match+4.34.2

2.9Double Faults / Match1.0 fewer3.9

Return · 0–1

36.8%Return Pts Won+3.2pp40.0%

Pressure · 2–0

45.5%Break Pts Converted+6.0pp39.5%

65.1%Break Pts Saved+1.3pp63.8%

Points · 0–0 · 1 even

51.5%Total Pts Won—50.9%

Jan Kumstat

Thijs Boogaard

Quick Take

Context

BetBugs edges

Over 21.5

Jan Kumstat

Over 9.5

Over 9.5

Jan Kumstat

Over 2.5

Thijs Boogaard +3.5

Result1 of 1 landed

Games0 of 4 landed

Sets1 of 2 landed

Match stats0 of 1 landed

Head-to-Head

Jan Kumstat

Thijs Boogaard

Stat Battle