Aleksandar Vukic #113Australia22 – 0Alexis Galarneau #158Canada0

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Market price 1.60

The read

Vukic's H2H win and slightly stronger hard-court metrics against better opposition give him a moderate edge in this quarterfinal.

• Vukic leads H2H 1-0, winning 6-3 7-6(4) on indoor hard in 2022.
• Vukic's last 15 hard-court record: 2-0 (100%), with 56.6% games won and 53.2% total points won.
• Galarneau's last 15 hard-court record: 2-0 (100%), but against lower-ranked opponents (No. 259, No. 326).
• Vukic's career hard-court win percentage: 173-138 (55.6%); Galarneau: 136-106 (56.2%), but Vukic has faced stronger competition.

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced

The read

Both players' recent matches trend toward longer contests, with Galarneau especially involved in tight three-setters, making over 21.5 games likely.

• Vukic's last 15 matches average 22.9 total games per match.
• Galarneau's last 15 matches average 27.1 total games per match.
• Both players have played multiple three-set matches recently: Vukic 5/15, Galarneau 8/15.
• H2H match had 22 games in straight sets.

Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced

The read

Recent set 1 averages for both players hover around 10 games, and the H2H was tight, supporting over 9.5 games in the first set.

• Vukic's last 15 set 1 average: 9.7 games.
• Galarneau's last 15 set 1 average: 10.1 games.
• In their H2H, set 1 had 9 games.
• Both players have strong first-set win rates, suggesting a competitive opener.

Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced

The read

Set 2 averages and the H2H tiebreak indicate a competitive second set, likely exceeding 9.5 games.

• Vukic's last 15 set 2 average: 9.5 games.
• Galarneau's last 15 set 2 average: 9.9 games.
• Both players have played multiple tiebreaks in recent sets.
• H2H set 2 went to a tiebreak (13 games).

Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced

The read

Galarneau's competitive recent form and narrow margins suggest he can keep the match close, covering a +3.5 game handicap.

• Galarneau's last 15 matches: average margin of -0.3 games per match.
• Vukic's last 15 matches: average margin of +0.9 games per match.
• Galarneau has covered +3.5 in 13 of last 15 matches.
• H2H margin was 4 games in Vukic's favor.

Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced

The read

Both players have strong first-set records, but Vukic's slightly higher career conversion and H2H win suggest a marginal edge in set 1.

• Vukic's first-set win conversion rate in career: 86%.
• Galarneau's first-set win conversion rate in career: 85%.
• In last 15 matches, Vukic won 53.3% of sets; Galarneau won 60%.
• On hard courts in last 15, Vukic won 80% of sets (4/5); Galarneau also 80% (4/5).

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Market price 2.20

The read

High frequency of tiebreaks in both players' recent matches and the H2H makes a tiebreak likely in this encounter.

• Vukic's last 15: tiebreak in 6 of 15 matches (40%).
• Galarneau's last 15: tiebreak in 8 of 15 matches (53%).
• H2H had a tiebreak in set 2.
• Both players have tiebreak win rates around 52-53%.

Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced

The read

Both players serve aces at a decent rate, and the H2H showed high ace counts, supporting over 10.5 total aces.

• Vukic averages 6.0 aces per match in last 15; 9.5 on hard courts.
• Galarneau averages 5.7 aces per match in last 15; 5.5 on hard courts.
• Combined average aces per match: 11.7.
• H2H had 21 total aces (Vukic 14, Galarneau 7).

Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced

The read

Galarneau's higher double-fault rate pushes the combined average near the line, making over 5.5 a coin-flip proposition.

• Vukic averages 2.0 double faults per match in last 15.
• Galarneau averages 3.4 double faults per match in last 15.
• Combined average: 5.4 double faults per match.
• H2H had 3 double faults (all Galarneau).