CanadaGranby - CanadaFinished

Predictions graded

Liam Draxl #223Canada2Daniel Milavsky #335United States0

Sets 7-5 · 6-1Thu 16 Jul 2026, 21:13 Predictions gradedSecond RoundHard

Predictions3–538%

Edges4–180%

Player Profiles

Ranking advantageLiam Draxl · 112 places

Liam Draxl

Canada

Canadian right-hander born in 2001. He reached a career-high singles ranking of No. 113 on 2025-07-28. His strongest public results are hard-court based, including Challenger titles in Calgary and Winnipeg.

Current ranking: #223
Peak ranking: #113 · 2025
Current age: 24
Preferred surface: Hard
Hand: Right handed
Height: 185 cm

Daniel Milavsky

United States

American right-hander born in 2001. He reached a career-high singles ranking of No. 335 on 2026-07-13. His public singles-finals record is hard-court heavy.

Current ranking: #335
Peak ranking: #335 · 2026
Current age: 24
Preferred surface: Hard
Hand: Right handed
Height: 193 cm

Quick Take

Pre-match view

Context last updated 16 Jul 2026, 06:14 · Europe/Bucharest

Liam Draxl's superior hard-court stats and Granby final experience give him a clear edge over Daniel Milavsky, but the match is likely to be competitive with extended sets.

Value lies in over 9.5 games in the first and second sets, while Draxl's straight-sets win is a risky bet given his recent three-set frequency. Expect a tight contest with a tiebreak and over 21.5 total games.

Context

Draxl reached the Granby final in July 2025, losing to a higher-ranked opponent.
- He is playing in his home country, Canada, which often provides comfort and crowd support.
- Milavsky has no recorded match history at this tournament.
Draxl's return points won on hard in the last 15: 40.2% (236/587).
- Milavsky's return points won on hard in the last 15: 33.6% (183/544).
- Draxl also converts break points at a higher rate (44.8% vs. 30.4%) in the same window.

BetBugs edges

Compare BetBugs' chances with the market's.

Positive edges · 3

BetBugs probabilities

How likely BetBugs thought each outcome was.

Result1 of 1 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Market price 1.44
The read
Draxl's superior hard-court stats in the recent window, particularly in return points won and first-serve effectiveness, give him a clear edge on this surface.
- Draxl has a 66.7% win rate on hard courts in his last 15 matches (6-3 record), compared to Milavsky's 50% (4-4) in the same window.
- Draxl's first-serve points won on hard is 73.2% in the last 15, while Milavsky's is 69.4%.
- Draxl's return points won on hard is 40.2% vs. Milavsky's 33.6% in the last 15 matches.
- Draxl holds a 223 ranking vs. Milavsky's 335, and Draxl has recent wins over higher-ranked opponents (e.g., Trotter, Arseneault).
BetBugs · Match WinnerwonLiam DraxlEstimated chance62%

Games1 of 3 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
The combined hard-court game totals from both players' recent matches suggest a competitive contest likely to exceed 21.5 games.
- Draxl's last 15 hard-court matches averaged 20.2 total games, with 6 of 9 exceeding 21.5 games.
- Milavsky's last 8 hard-court matches averaged 21.9 total games, with 5 of 8 going over 21.5.
- Both players have competitive recent matches: Draxl's last three hard-court wins were 13-12, 13-10, and 12-2 games, while Milavsky's last three hard-court matches were 12-6, 6-13, and 16-16.
BetBugs · Total GameslostOver 21.5Estimated chance65%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Market price 1.91
The read
Recent first-set game totals on hard courts for both players trend toward competitive, extended openers, making over 9.5 games likely.
- Draxl's last 5 hard-court matches: first-set games were 7, 10, 9, 8, 13 — averaging 9.4, with 3 of 5 over 9.5.
- Milavsky's last 5 hard-court matches: first-set games were 10, 7, 13, 10, 10 — averaging 10.0, with 4 of 5 over 9.5.
- Both players have first-serve points won around 70% on hard, indicating few early breaks.
BetBugs · Set 1 Total GameswonOver 9.5Estimated chance60%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Market price 1.91
The read
The second-set game totals in recent hard-court matches for both players indicate a pattern of tight sets, supporting over 9.5 games.
- Draxl's last 5 hard-court second sets: 9, 13, 9, 8, 10 games — averaging 9.8, with 3 of 5 over 9.5.
- Milavsky's last 5 hard-court second sets: 8, 12, 13, 7, 10 games — averaging 10.0, with 3 of 5 over 9.5.
- Both players have break-point save rates above 60% on hard, reducing the chance of lopsided sets.
BetBugs · Set 2 Total GameslostOver 9.5Estimated chance60%

Sets1 of 2 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Market price 1.50
The read
Draxl's tendency to start strong on hard courts, combined with Milavsky's recent first-set struggles on the surface, points to Draxl taking the opener.
- Draxl has won the first set in 8 of his last 15 matches overall, including 5 of 9 on hard courts.
- Milavsky has lost the first set in 5 of his last 8 hard-court matches.
- Draxl's first-set win conversion rate is 89% career, indicating he often capitalizes on early leads.
BetBugs · Set 1 WinnerwonLiam DraxlEstimated chance60%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
With both players showing a propensity for three-set matches on hard courts and no dominant edge in closing out matches quickly, over 2.5 sets is a reasonable outcome.
- Draxl has gone to three sets in 4 of his last 9 hard-court matches (44%).
- Milavsky has gone to three sets in 3 of his last 8 hard-court matches (38%).
- Both players have deciding-set win rates around 50-59%, indicating they are competitive in extended matches.
BetBugs · Total SetslostOver 2.5Estimated chance55%

Match stats0 of 1 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
The combined ace rates of both players on hard courts comfortably exceed 7.5, making the over a strong serve-profile play.
- Draxl averages 3.8 aces per match on hard courts in his last 15 matches.
- Milavsky averages 4.9 aces per match on hard courts in his last 15 matches.
- Combined, their recent hard-court ace averages total 8.7 per match.
BetBugs · Total AcesOver 7.5Estimated chance60%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Both players have double-fault rates that, when combined, push the total over 5.5, especially given Milavsky's higher rate.
- Draxl averages 2.4 double faults per match on hard courts in his last 15 matches.
- Milavsky averages 3.5 double faults per match on hard courts in his last 15 matches.
- Combined, their recent hard-court double-fault averages total 5.9 per match.
BetBugs · Total Double FaultsOver 5.5Estimated chance60%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
With both players showing a tiebreak in about one-third of recent matches and strong serving on hard courts, a tiebreak is likely in this competitive matchup.
- Draxl has played a tiebreak in 5 of his last 15 matches overall (33%), including 3 on hard courts.
- Milavsky has played a tiebreak in 5 of his last 15 matches overall (33%), including 3 on hard courts.
- Both players have first-serve points won above 69% on hard, which can lead to tight sets.
BetBugs · Tiebreak in MatchlostYesEstimated chance55%

Liam Draxl

8W 7L

1-6 6-3 6-3#432James Kent Trotter

6-4 7-6(0)#780Nicolas Arseneault

6-3 6-4—Keegan Rice

6-2 6-0—Stephen Slocombe

7-6(5) 6-4#446Dhakshineswar Suresh

2-6 7-6(3) 6-1#179Remy Bertola

6-4 6-4#79Adam Walton

6-2 6-3#232Braden Shick

6-3 1-6 6-3—Sebastian Gorzny

6-1 6-3#596Aidan Kim

4-6 6-1 6-3#73Jesper De Jong

6-4 6-7(6) 6-2#289Ilia Simakin

7-6(3) 6-3#91Emilio Nava

6-1 6-0#262Kilian Feldbausch

6-7(12) 6-4 7-6(4)#260Pedro Boscardin Dias

Daniel Milavsky

9W 6L

6-4 6-2#664Duncan Chan

6-3 6-2#158Alexis Galarneau

6-2 6-1#109Bu Yunchaokete

6-4 6-3#259Kaichi Uchida

1-6 6-3 6-3#461Quinn Vandecasteele

6-4 6-7(3) 6-1#420Masamichi Imamura

6-1 7-5#578Ozan Baris

7-6(4) 3-6 6-4—Lucas Marionneau

6-4 6-1#287Murphy Cassone

4-6 6-3 6-4#467Christian Langmo

6-4 6-4—William Manning

6-3 6-2#181Colton Smith

3-6 7-6(3) 1-0 ret.#329Tung-Lin Wu

3-6 7-6(6) 6-3#659Ryan Colby

6-1 6-0—Oren Vasser

Stat Battle

Last 15 match performance, compared side by side.

LDLiam DraxlDraxl

Last 15

3–5

9 core stats · 1 even

Daniel MilavskyMilavskyDM

Daniel Milavsky carries the stronger recent form — Liam Draxl's route runs through serve.

Serve · 2–3

1st Serve In65.0%+5.5pp59.5%

1st Serve Won68.9%+1.6pp70.5%

2nd Serve Won47.1%+6.2pp53.3%

Aces / Match3.0+1.94.9

Double Faults / Match2.51.1 fewer3.6

Return · 0–0 · 1 even

Return Pts Won38.5%—38.3%

Pressure · 1–1

Break Pts Converted45.0%+1.8pp43.2%

Break Pts Saved61.5%+1.2pp62.7%

Points · 0–1

Total Pts Won50.0%+0.8pp50.8%

Serve · 2–3

65.0%1st Serve In+5.5pp59.5%

68.9%1st Serve Won+1.6pp70.5%

47.1%2nd Serve Won+6.2pp53.3%

3.0Aces / Match+1.94.9

2.5Double Faults / Match1.1 fewer3.6

Return · 0–0 · 1 even

38.5%Return Pts Won—38.3%

Pressure · 1–1

45.0%Break Pts Converted+1.8pp43.2%

61.5%Break Pts Saved+1.2pp62.7%

Points · 0–1

50.0%Total Pts Won+0.8pp50.8%

Liam Draxl

Daniel Milavsky

Quick Take

Context

BetBugs edges

Over 9.5

Over 9.5

Liam Draxl 2-0

Liam Draxl

Liam Draxl

Result1 of 1 landed

Games1 of 3 landed

Sets1 of 2 landed

Match stats0 of 1 landed

Liam Draxl

Daniel Milavsky

Stat Battle