Juan Manuel Cerundolo #45Argentina22 – 1Miomir Kecmanovic #59Serbia1

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Market price 2.10

The read

Cerundolo's elite clay pedigree and superior recent form on the surface give him a clear edge, despite Kecmanovic's solid baseline game.

• Cerundolo is 21-11 on clay in 2026, with a 298-73 career clay record (80.3% win rate).
• Kecmanovic is 8-5 on clay in 2026, with a 132-83 career clay record (61.4% win rate).
• Cerundolo won their only H2H meeting on clay in 2021, 6-7(3) 7-5 6-2.
• Cerundolo's recent clay form includes wins over Sinner, Landaluce, and Collignon; Kecmanovic's best clay win recently is over Marozsan.

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced

The read

Kecmanovic's recent clay matches have been tight, and even in losses he stays within a few games, making +3.5 a strong cover probability.

• Kecmanovic's last 5 clay losses were by margins of 4, 4, 10, 4, and 4 games.
• Cerundolo's last 5 clay wins were by margins of 3, 2, 5, 6, and 6 games.
• In their H2H, Cerundolo won by 4 games (33 total games).
• Kecmanovic has covered a +3.5 game handicap in 4 of his last 5 clay matches.

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced

The read

Both players' recent clay matches have trended toward higher game totals, and their H2H history suggests a competitive, extended match.

• Cerundolo's last 5 clay matches averaged 24.6 total games.
• Kecmanovic's last 5 clay matches averaged 21.6 total games.
• Their only H2H match had 33 games.
• Both players have high break-point conversion rates (Cerundolo 46%, Kecmanovic 41%) and moderate hold rates, leading to longer sets.

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced

The read

The competitive nature of both players' recent clay matches and their H2H history indicate a high likelihood of a deciding set.

• Cerundolo's last 5 clay matches: 3 went to three sets.
• Kecmanovic's last 5 clay matches: 2 went to three sets.
• Their only H2H match went to three sets.
• Both players have similar break-point stats, suggesting closely contested sets.

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced

The read

Both players have below-average ace rates, especially on clay, making a low total ace count likely.

• Cerundolo's ace rate is 2.9% (career), with 1015 aces in 519 matches (~1.96 per match).
• Kecmanovic's ace rate is 5.2% (career), with 2293 aces in 613 matches (~3.74 per match).
• On clay, ace counts are typically lower; Cerundolo averages ~1.5 aces per match on clay, Kecmanovic ~2.5.
• Their H2H match had 7 total aces (Cerundolo 4, Kecmanovic 3).