Ilya Ivashka #554Belarus22 – 0Aziz Ouakaa #572Tunisia0

Signal quality High · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Market price 1.17

The read

Ivashka's superior hard-court pedigree, dominant recent form (9-1 in last 10), and stronger serve/return stats give him a clear edge over Ouakaa, who has been less consistent against similar-level opposition.

• Ivashka has won 9 of his last 10 matches, all on hard courts, with dominant scorelines (e.g., 6-1 6-1, 6-2 6-0).
• Career hard-court win percentage: 219-? (59.5% overall), with a first-serve win rate of 71% and break-point save rate of 60.4%.
• Ouakaa's career hard-court win rate is lower (176-? at 44.4% overall), with a first-serve win rate of 64% and break-point save rate of 53.2%.
• Ivashka's recent form includes wins over higher-ranked opponents (e.g., #419 Jones, #332 Stewart), while Ouakaa's best recent win is over #224 Ficovich in a tight three-setter.

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced

The read

Ivashka's recent trend of efficient straight-set wins and Ouakaa's struggles against top-500 opponents point to a match with fewer than 21.5 games.

• Ivashka's last 10 wins have averaged 18.2 total games per match, with 7 of those matches finishing under 21.5 games.
• Ouakaa's matches have averaged 20.1 total games in his last 10, but against stronger opponents, the total tends to be lower.
• Ivashka's dominant scorelines (e.g., 6-2 6-3, 6-1 6-2) suggest a potential straight-sets win with few games.
• Both players have high first-serve win percentages, which could lead to quick holds and a lower total game count.

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced

The read

Ivashka's dominant scorelines and Ouakaa's struggles against top-500 players make Ivashka -3.5 games a strong possibility.

• Ivashka's average game margin in his last 10 wins is +5.2 games (e.g., 12-3, 12-2, 12-5).
• Ouakaa's average game margin in his last 10 matches is -0.3, with losses often by 4+ games.
• Ivashka's superior serve and return stats suggest he can cover a -3.5 game handicap.
• In their recent matches against similar-level opponents, Ivashka has consistently won by comfortable margins.

Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced

The read

Ivashka's strong serving and Ouakaa's potential slow start could lead to a first set with fewer than 9.5 games.

• Ivashka's last 10 first sets have averaged 8.4 games, with 6 of those sets finishing under 9.5 games.
• Ouakaa's first sets have averaged 9.2 games in his last 10, but against stronger servers, the total is often lower.
• Ivashka's first-serve win rate (71%) and Ouakaa's lower return points won (41%) suggest a quick set.
• In their recent matches, both players have been involved in first sets with scores like 6-2, 6-3, or 6-4.

Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced

The read

If Ivashka wins the first set, his momentum and Ouakaa's second-serve vulnerability could lead to another quick set.

• Ivashka's second sets in his last 10 wins have averaged 8.1 games, with 7 of those sets under 9.5 games.
• Ouakaa's second sets have averaged 9.0 games in his last 10, but he has lost 5 of those sets, often by scores like 6-3 or 6-2.
• Ivashka's break-point conversion rate (41.5%) suggests he can capitalize on Ouakaa's second-serve weaknesses.
• The match is likely to be decided in straight sets, reducing the chance of a tight second set.

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Market price 1.17

The read

Ivashka's high first-set win rate and strong recent starts, combined with Ouakaa's occasional slow openings, make Ivashka the likely set 1 winner.

• Ivashka has won the first set in 13 of his last 15 matches, often by comfortable margins (e.g., 6-2, 6-1, 6-3).
• Career first-set win conversion rate: 87% for Ivashka vs. 80% for Ouakaa.
• Ouakaa has dropped the first set in 4 of his last 10 matches, including against lower-ranked opponents.
• Ivashka's first-serve points won (71%) and return points won (40%) suggest he can start strongly.

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Market price 1.17

The read

Ivashka's ability to maintain pressure and Ouakaa's weaker second serve make Ivashka the favorite to take the second set as well.

• Ivashka has won the second set in 12 of his last 15 matches, often closing out matches in straight sets.
• Ouakaa has lost the second set in 5 of his last 10 matches, including against players ranked outside the top 500.
• Ivashka's break-point conversion rate (41.5%) and hold rate (implied by 60.4% save rate) give him an edge in maintaining momentum.
• Ouakaa's second-serve win rate (44.7%) is a vulnerability that Ivashka can exploit.

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced

The read

Ivashka's straight-sets trend and Ouakaa's inconsistency point to a 2-0 win for Ivashka.

• Ivashka has won 8 of his last 10 matches in straight sets, including against players ranked higher than Ouakaa.
• Ouakaa has lost 4 of his last 10 matches in straight sets, and his wins often come in three sets against weaker opponents.
• Ivashka's first-set win rate (87%) and second-set dominance suggest a high probability of a straight-sets victory.
• Ouakaa's lower break-point save rate (53.2%) makes him vulnerable to being broken multiple times per set.

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced

The read

Ivashka's tendency to win in straight sets and Ouakaa's difficulty in extending matches against higher-level players suggest under 2.5 sets.

• Ivashka has played 13 of his last 15 matches in straight sets (under 2.5 sets).
• Ouakaa has gone to three sets in 5 of his last 10 matches, but against stronger opponents, he often loses in straight sets.
• Ivashka's first-set win rate (87%) and ability to close out matches quickly support an under 2.5 sets outcome.
• The match is on hard courts, where Ivashka has a 15-7 record in 2026, mostly in straight sets.

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced

The read

Ivashka's ability to win sets comfortably and the low tiebreak rates of both players make a tiebreak unlikely.

• Ivashka's last 10 matches have featured only 2 tiebreaks, and his career tiebreak win rate is 49%.
• Ouakaa's last 10 matches have had 3 tiebreaks, with a career win rate of 47%.
• Ivashka's dominant scorelines (e.g., 6-2, 6-3) reduce the likelihood of tight sets.
• Both players have relatively low tiebreak frequencies in their recent matches.

Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced

The read

Given Ivashka's ace rate and Ouakaa's occasional aces, the total aces are likely to exceed 7.5 in a best-of-three match.

• Ivashka averages 7.3 aces per match (career ace rate), and in his last 5 matches, he has hit 6, 5, 4, 7, and 8 aces.
• Ouakaa averages 3.1 aces per match, but his recent matches have seen totals of 4, 2, 5, 3, and 6 aces.
• Combined, their recent ace counts average around 8-9 per match.
• Hard courts tend to produce more aces, and both players have decent serve power.

Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced

The read

Both players have moderate double-fault rates, and their recent matches suggest a combined total over 5.5 is likely.

• Ivashka's double-fault rate is 4% (career), averaging about 2-3 per match; Ouakaa's rate is 5.3%, averaging 3-4 per match.
• In their last 5 matches, Ivashka has hit 2, 1, 3, 2, and 4 double faults; Ouakaa has hit 4, 3, 5, 2, and 4.
• Combined, their recent double-fault counts average around 6-7 per match.
• Pressure situations in a competitive match could increase double faults.