Alexander Bublik #11Kazakhstan11 – 2Quentin Halys #90France2

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Market price 1.73

The read

Both players have been involved in high-game matches recently, and with no dominant server on clay, a longer match is expected.

• Bublik's last 5 matches averaged 27.6 total games per match.
• Halys' last 5 matches averaged 22.4 total games, with three matches exceeding 22.5 games.
• In their combined last 10 matches, 7 have gone over 22.5 total games.

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Market price 1.73

The read

Strong serving numbers from both players suggest a tight opening set, likely extending beyond 9.5 games.

• Bublik's last 5 first sets averaged 10.2 games, with 4 of 5 going over 9.5.
• Halys' last 5 first sets averaged 9.6 games, with 3 of 5 going over 9.5.
• Both players have first-serve win percentages around 76-77%, making breaks less frequent early on.

Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced

The read

With both players showing solid hold percentages, the second set is likely to be competitive and surpass 9.5 games.

• Bublik's last 5 second sets averaged 9.8 games, with 3 of 5 going over 9.5.
• Halys' last 5 second sets averaged 9.2 games, with 3 of 5 going over 9.5.
• Both players have similar break point save rates (Bublik 61.7%, Halys 62.9%), indicating resilience on serve.

Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced

The read

Bublik's recent trend of starting strong, combined with Halys' slow starts, gives Bublik a slight edge in the opening set.

• Bublik has won the first set in 3 of his last 5 matches.
• Halys has lost the first set in 3 of his last 5 matches.
• Bublik's first-set win conversion rate is 87%, indicating he often wins the match when taking the first set.

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Market price 2.20

The read

With both players frequently involved in tiebreaks recently, it is highly likely that at least one set will go to a tiebreak.

• Bublik has played a tiebreak in 4 of his last 5 matches.
• Halys has played a tiebreak in 3 of his last 5 matches.
• Both players have tiebreak win percentages above 53%, indicating they often reach tiebreaks.

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Market price 1.85

The read

Both players possess strong serves that can generate aces even on clay, making over 12.5 aces a reasonable expectation.

• Bublik averages 14 aces per 100 serves, with a career ace rate of 14%.
• Halys averages 13.1 aces per 100 serves, with a career ace rate of 13.1%.
• On clay, ace rates typically drop, but both players' height (196cm and 191cm) and power suggest they can still produce aces.

Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced

The read

While both players have moderate double fault rates, the over 5.5 line is borderline, with a slight lean toward the over given their aggressive serving styles.

• Bublik has a double fault rate of 7.8%, averaging about 4 double faults per match.
• Halys has a double fault rate of 6.4%, averaging about 3.5 double faults per match.
• Combined, their average double faults per match is around 7.5, but clay can reduce double faults slightly.