Darya Astakhova #233Russia11 – 2Noma Akugue Noha #149Germany2

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced

The read

The combination of competitive recent matches and similar break-point dynamics points to a match exceeding 20.5 games.

• Astakhova's last 5 clay matches averaged 19.6 games; Noha's averaged 21.4 games.
• Both players have high break-point conversion rates (Astakhova 51%, Noha 49%) and moderate save rates (Astakhova 52.9%, Noha 55%), leading to longer sets.
• In their recent clay matches, 4 of Astakhova's last 5 and 3 of Noha's last 5 went over 20.5 games.

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced

The read

Noha's higher ranking and ability to keep matches close against similar competition make her likely to cover a +3.5 game handicap.

• Astakhova's average games won margin in her last 5 clay wins is +5.2, but against top-200 opponents it drops to +2.0.
• Noha's last 5 clay losses were by an average of 4.4 games, but she kept margins within 3.5 in 3 of those 5.
• Head-to-head is 0-0, but Noha's ranking (149) is higher than Astakhova's (233), indicating a closer match.

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced

The read

Recent first-set scores show a mix of tight and one-sided sets, but the overall trend leans toward competitive starts, making over 9.5 games likely.

• Astakhova's last 5 clay first sets: 6-3, 5-7, 6-4, 3-6, 2-6 (avg 9.6 games).
• Noha's last 5 clay first sets: 6-1, 5-7, 6-4, 0-6, 6-2 (avg 8.6 games).
• Both players have strong first-set win conversion but often face tight opening sets against similar-ranked opponents.

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Market price 2.60

The read

Astakhova's elite first-set conversion rate and recent clay form suggest she is slightly more likely to take the opening set.

• Astakhova's first-set win conversion is 93% over her career.
• In her last 5 clay matches, Astakhova won the first set in 3 of 5.
• Noha's first-set win conversion is 88%, but she lost the first set in 2 of her last 5 clay matches.

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced

The read

Low ace rates and clay-court conditions typically suppress ace counts, making under 5.5 a strong lean.

• Astakhova's ace rate is 1.5%, Noha's is 2.5%.
• In their last 5 clay matches, Astakhova averaged ~1.2 aces per match, Noha ~2.0.
• Both players have low ace counts on clay, with combined totals rarely exceeding 5.

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced

The read

Elevated double-fault rates and clay-court rallies increase the likelihood of exceeding 7.5 double faults combined.

• Astakhova's double-fault rate is 4.6%, Noha's is 5.3%.
• In their last 5 clay matches, Astakhova averaged ~3.0 DFs, Noha ~3.5 DFs.
• Both players have moderate second-serve pressure, leading to double faults in tight moments.