RomaniaWTA IasiFinished

Predictions graded

Clara Burel #630France2Elsa Jacquemot #107France0

Sets 6-1 · 6-1Wed 15 Jul 2026, 16:44 Predictions gradedSecond RoundClay

Predictions6–275%

Edges2–0100%

Player Profiles

Ranking advantageElsa Jacquemot · 523 places

Clara Burel

France

Reached a career-high No. 42 on June 10, 2024. After tearing her right ACL in April 2025, she returned in April 2026 and won an ITF title in Nice on June 15, 2026.

Current ranking: #630
Peak ranking: #42 · 2024
Current age: 25
Preferred surface: Hard
Hand: Right handed
Height: 176 cm

Elsa Jacquemot

France

Reached a career-high No. 53 on February 2, 2026. Her recent rise included a 2025 Roland Garros third round, a 2025 Guadalajara semifinal and a France BJK Cup debut in April 2026.

Current ranking: #107
Peak ranking: #53 · 2026
Current age: 23
Preferred surface: —
Hand: Right handed
Height: 176 cm

Quick Take

Pre-match view

Context last updated 15 Jul 2026, 06:15 · Europe/Bucharest

Clara Burel holds a dominant 6-1 H2H edge over Elsa Jacquemot and is in better clay form, making her the value pick at 1.65 odds.

The match is likely to be straight sets with few aces but plenty of double faults, supporting under 2.5 sets and over 7.5 double faults.

Context

The UniCredit Iasi Open official draw and player pages dated around July 14, 2026 do not include Burel.
- No withdrawal has been reported, but the absence from official materials raises a real availability concern.
Burel leads the H2H 6-1 overall, with straight-set wins in their last three matches (2023-2024).
- On clay, Burel is 2-0 against Jacquemot, winning in straight sets both times.
- In their seven meetings, Burel has won the first set five times and converted at a higher break-point rate (45% vs 39%).
Burel is 8-2 in her last 10 clay matches, with a title run at ITF Nice in June 2026.
- Jacquemot is 2-8 in her last 10 clay matches, with six of those losses coming in straight sets.
- Burel's recent clay wins include victories over higher-ranked opponents like Petra Marcinko (No. 45).

BetBugs edges

Compare BetBugs' chances with the market's.

BetBugs probabilities

How likely BetBugs thought each outcome was.

Result1 of 1 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Market price 1.65
The read
Burel's dominant H2H record, superior recent clay form, and higher career clay win percentage give her a clear edge despite ranking disparity.
- H2H: Burel leads 6-1 overall, 2-0 on clay, with straight-set wins in last 3 meetings (2023-2024).
- Recent form: Burel 8-2 in last 10 clay matches, including ITF Nice title; Jacquemot 2-8 in last 10 clay matches.
- Surface edge: Burel career clay win% 57.1% (89-67) vs Jacquemot 52.9% (83-74); Burel 2026 clay 8-6 vs Jacquemot 5-8.
BetBugs · Match WinnerwonClara BurelEstimated chance62%

Games0 of 2 landed

Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Recent clay matches for both players have trended toward higher game totals, and their similar break-point stats could lead to a longer match.
- Burel's last 5 clay matches averaged 22.6 games; Jacquemot's last 5 clay matches averaged 20.4 games.
- H2H matches averaged 19.7 games, but recent form shows more competitive sets.
- Both players have break-point conversion rates near 47%, indicating potential for extended games.
BetBugs · Total GameslostOver 20.5Estimated chance55%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Recent clay first sets for both players have trended toward 9+ games, indicating a competitive start likely to exceed 8.5 games.
- Burel's last 5 clay first sets averaged 9.2 games; Jacquemot's last 5 clay first sets averaged 9.0 games.
- H2H first sets averaged 8.3 games, but recent form shows closer starts.
- Both players have break-point conversion rates near 47%, suggesting competitive early games.
BetBugs · Set 1 Total GameslostOver 8.5Estimated chance55%

Sets2 of 2 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Burel's strong first-set performance in recent clay matches and H2H dominance suggest she is likely to start well.
- Burel first-set win conversion 83% career; Jacquemot 79%.
- Burel won first set in 4 of last 5 clay matches; Jacquemot lost first set in 4 of last 5 clay matches.
- H2H: Burel won first set in 5 of 7 meetings, including last 3 straight-set wins.
BetBugs · Set 1 WinnerwonClara BurelEstimated chance60%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Both players' recent clay matches and H2H history lean toward straight-set outcomes, supporting under 2.5 sets.
- Burel's last 5 clay wins: 4 in straight sets.
- Jacquemot's last 8 clay losses: 6 in straight sets.
- H2H: 5 of 7 matches ended in straight sets.
BetBugs · Total SetswonUnder 2.5Estimated chance55%

Match stats1 of 1 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Clay surface typically suppresses ace counts, and both players' historical ace rates on clay are low, making under 5.5 likely.
- Burel ace rate 2.8% (career 648 aces in 323 matches); Jacquemot 5.8% (1706 in 405 matches).
- Combined average aces per match: Burel ~2.0, Jacquemot ~4.2, total ~6.2, but clay reduces ace counts.
- H2H: 7 matches averaged 3.9 total aces (Burel 1.7, Jacquemot 2.1).
BetBugs · Total AcesUnder 5.5Estimated chance65%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Both players have high double-fault rates, and their H2H history shows consistently high double-fault totals, supporting over 7.5.
- Burel double-fault rate 6.7% (1535 in 323 matches); Jacquemot 7.5% (2190 in 405 matches).
- Combined average double faults per match: Burel ~4.8, Jacquemot ~5.4, total ~10.2.
- H2H: 7 matches averaged 9.3 total double faults (Burel 4.0, Jacquemot 5.3).
BetBugs · Total Double FaultsOver 7.5Estimated chance60%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Low tiebreak frequency in recent matches and H2H history, combined with clay surface reducing serve dominance, makes a tiebreak unlikely.
- Burel tiebreak win% 55%, Jacquemot 47%.
- Burel's last 15 matches: 2 tiebreaks; Jacquemot's last 15: 3 tiebreaks.
- H2H: 0 tiebreaks in 7 matches.
BetBugs · Tiebreak in MatchwonNoEstimated chance60%

Head-to-Head

6-1 (7 meetings)

W6-3 6-3Clara Burel#630vElsa Jacquemot#107Apr 29, 2024

W6-4 6-4Clara Burel#630vElsa Jacquemot#107Dec 5, 2023

W6-1 6-2Clara Burel#630vElsa Jacquemot#107Jan 9, 2023

L6-2 6-2Clara Burel#630vElsa Jacquemot#107Sep 14, 2022

W2-6 6-3 6-1Clara Burel#630vElsa Jacquemot#107Dec 7, 2021

W6-3 0-6 6-0Clara Burel#630vElsa Jacquemot#107Sep 1, 2020

W6-2 6-1Clara Burel#630vElsa Jacquemot#107Feb 14, 2020

Clara Burel dominates (7 meetings)7 total meetings

Clara Burel

8W 7L

2-6 7-5 6-3#172Varvara Lepchenko

6-3 4-6 6-3#340Alicia Herrero Linana

6-7(3) 6-0 6-2#45Petra Marcinko

6-3 ret.#167Despina Papamichail

6-7(6) 7-5 6-2#538Jana Otzipka

6-1 3-6 6-3#428Jenny Lim

6-0 6-3#427Maria Sara Popa

6-2 6-1#275Alevtina Ibragimova

1-6 6-3 7-5#354Deborah Chiesa

6-3 7-5#456Astrid Lew Yan Foon

6-3 6-1#93Katie Volynets

4-6 7-6(5) 6-4#75Tamara Korpatsch

7-5 3-2 ret.#193Jessika Ponchet

6-3 6-2#47Viktorija Golubic

1-4 ret.#214Ayla Aksu

Elsa Jacquemot

4W 11L

6-4 7-6(5)#586Ilinca Dalina Amariei

6-1 6-2#292Aurora Zantedeschi

6-1 7-5#13Naomi Osaka

2-6 6-1 6-3#48Zeynep Sonmez

5-7 6-2 6-3#326Mingge Xu

6-4 6-4#106Sofia Kenin

6-2 4-6 6-4#162Hanyu Guo

7-5 6-2#1Aryna Sabalenka

6-4 6-3#184Linda Fruhvirtova

4-6 6-3 6-3#101Anastasia Zakharova

6-2 6-4#32Barbora Krejcikova

7-6(3) 7-6(5)#173Bianca Vanessa Andreescu

6-1 6-2#141Tyra Caterina Grant

6-4 6-3#76Tatjana Maria

6-4 4-6 6-3#156Lola Radivojevic